Silver at the $60 mark: These three variables will determine its direction next week.
2026-07-10 15:48:41
On Friday (July 10) during the European session, spot silver prices fluctuated narrowly, currently up about 0.05%, trading around $60 per ounce.
Silver's strength was mainly due to the continued weakness of the US dollar - the dollar index fell by about 0.15% to around 100.75 during the day, and once touched a three-week low of around 100.60.
The situation between the US and Iran has shown signs of easing, with technical negotiations still underway. Although Trump had previously announced that the memorandum of understanding was "over," US officials confirmed that technical negotiations between the two sides are still ongoing, a signal that has weakened safe-haven buying of the US dollar.
The US dollar index has fallen for the second consecutive week, retreating from above 101.20 at the start of the week to a three-week low near 100.60. The continued weakness of the dollar is highly correlated with the evolving US-Iran situation – although the escalation of the military conflict at the beginning of the week initially boosted safe-haven demand, the situation subsequently showed clear signs of easing.
U.S. officials confirmed that technical talks between Washington and Iran are continuing, despite Trump's earlier announcement that the memorandum of understanding "has ended." Trump also stated on Wednesday that he had spoken with Iran, saying Iran "very much wants a deal," but added that he did not believe Iran would abide by it. This contradictory signal suggests that diplomatic channels between the U.S. and Iran have not been completely closed—a positive sign for market sentiment as it reduces the likelihood of further deterioration in the Middle East.
For silver, a weaker US dollar is a direct positive factor. Since silver is priced in US dollars, a weaker dollar means lower costs for investors holding other currencies to buy silver, thus increasing its attractiveness. From a technical perspective, a weaker dollar makes silver a favorable risk-reward option for investors.
Earlier this week, crude oil prices surged due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran and heightened conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz. However, as signs of de-escalation emerged, oil prices retreated significantly from their weekly highs. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices are currently holding steady around $72.00 per barrel after a sharp drop on Thursday.
The pullback in oil prices has had a positive impact on silver. The decline in energy prices has eased market concerns about runaway energy-driven inflation—if inflation expectations do not continue to worsen, the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates will decrease accordingly, thereby reducing interest rate pressures on silver. This is an important logical chain: oil price pullback → easing inflation concerns → cooling interest rate hike expectations → declining real interest rates → increased attractiveness of silver.
Looking ahead, market focus has shifted to the US June CPI data to be released next week. This data will be a key indicator for examining inflation trends and could significantly impact the Federal Reserve's policy path.
Market consensus forecasts suggest that the overall CPI may decline by 0.1% month-on-month (previous value: +0.5%), with the previous annual rate at 4.2%. If the CPI data reaches or falls below the consensus level, it will further reduce the urgency of a Fed rate hike, thus providing upward momentum for silver. Conversely, if the CPI data exceeds expectations, it could reignite expectations of a Fed rate hike, reverse the current weakening trend of the dollar, and put downward pressure on silver.
Overall, silver is currently finding support above $60 from both a weakening dollar and a pullback in oil prices.
The short-term upside target is the 60.50-61.00 area. If it breaks through effectively, it may retest the previous resistance level of 61.50.
On the downside, the 59.50-60.00 range has become a recent support zone. If this level is breached, the price may retest the 58.50 area.
In the current environment, the price movement of silver will be highly dependent on the further development of the US-Iran situation and the revision of inflation expectations based on next week's CPI data.
(Spot silver daily chart, source: EasyForex)
At 15:16 Beijing time on July 10, spot silver was trading at $60.06 per ounce.
Silver's strength was mainly due to the continued weakness of the US dollar - the dollar index fell by about 0.15% to around 100.75 during the day, and once touched a three-week low of around 100.60.
The situation between the US and Iran has shown signs of easing, with technical negotiations still underway. Although Trump had previously announced that the memorandum of understanding was "over," US officials confirmed that technical negotiations between the two sides are still ongoing, a signal that has weakened safe-haven buying of the US dollar.
Dollar weakens: Signals of easing tensions between the US and Iran suppress safe-haven demand.
The US dollar index has fallen for the second consecutive week, retreating from above 101.20 at the start of the week to a three-week low near 100.60. The continued weakness of the dollar is highly correlated with the evolving US-Iran situation – although the escalation of the military conflict at the beginning of the week initially boosted safe-haven demand, the situation subsequently showed clear signs of easing.
U.S. officials confirmed that technical talks between Washington and Iran are continuing, despite Trump's earlier announcement that the memorandum of understanding "has ended." Trump also stated on Wednesday that he had spoken with Iran, saying Iran "very much wants a deal," but added that he did not believe Iran would abide by it. This contradictory signal suggests that diplomatic channels between the U.S. and Iran have not been completely closed—a positive sign for market sentiment as it reduces the likelihood of further deterioration in the Middle East.
For silver, a weaker US dollar is a direct positive factor. Since silver is priced in US dollars, a weaker dollar means lower costs for investors holding other currencies to buy silver, thus increasing its attractiveness. From a technical perspective, a weaker dollar makes silver a favorable risk-reward option for investors.
Oil price correction: Easing inflation concerns and improving the macroeconomic environment for silver.
Earlier this week, crude oil prices surged due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran and heightened conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz. However, as signs of de-escalation emerged, oil prices retreated significantly from their weekly highs. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices are currently holding steady around $72.00 per barrel after a sharp drop on Thursday.
The pullback in oil prices has had a positive impact on silver. The decline in energy prices has eased market concerns about runaway energy-driven inflation—if inflation expectations do not continue to worsen, the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates will decrease accordingly, thereby reducing interest rate pressures on silver. This is an important logical chain: oil price pullback → easing inflation concerns → cooling interest rate hike expectations → declining real interest rates → increased attractiveness of silver.
Outlook: Focus on next week's US CPI data
Looking ahead, market focus has shifted to the US June CPI data to be released next week. This data will be a key indicator for examining inflation trends and could significantly impact the Federal Reserve's policy path.
Market consensus forecasts suggest that the overall CPI may decline by 0.1% month-on-month (previous value: +0.5%), with the previous annual rate at 4.2%. If the CPI data reaches or falls below the consensus level, it will further reduce the urgency of a Fed rate hike, thus providing upward momentum for silver. Conversely, if the CPI data exceeds expectations, it could reignite expectations of a Fed rate hike, reverse the current weakening trend of the dollar, and put downward pressure on silver.
Overall, silver is currently finding support above $60 from both a weakening dollar and a pullback in oil prices.
The short-term upside target is the 60.50-61.00 area. If it breaks through effectively, it may retest the previous resistance level of 61.50.
On the downside, the 59.50-60.00 range has become a recent support zone. If this level is breached, the price may retest the 58.50 area.
In the current environment, the price movement of silver will be highly dependent on the further development of the US-Iran situation and the revision of inflation expectations based on next week's CPI data.
(Spot silver daily chart, source: EasyForex)
At 15:16 Beijing time on July 10, spot silver was trading at $60.06 per ounce.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
