Over the past weekend, military confrontation between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz escalated sharply. The US launched at least three rounds of airstrikes against Iran, striking more than 300 military targets. Iran retaliated with missiles and drones against US military facilities in several Gulf states and unilaterally announced the closure of the strait. With both sides adopting increasingly hardline rhetoric, the previously signed 60-day interim agreement is on the verge of collapse, causing significant volatility in global energy markets. US crude oil opened higher on Monday and continued to rise, climbing nearly 4% to $74.20 per barrel at one point.

I. Escalation of Conflict: From Attacks on Merchant Ships to Full-Scale Military Confrontation

On the second weekend of July 2026, tensions once again rose over the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a statement in the early hours of July 12th, local time, announcing the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz until the United States ceases its intervention in the region. The statement noted that several vessels had attempted to pass through the strait along routes not approved by Iran in the preceding hours. One of the vessels had disabled its Automatic Identification System (AIS), prompting Iranian forces to fire warning shots and successfully intercept it.

This statement quickly triggered a strong reaction from the U.S. military. U.S. Central Command immediately announced a new round of airstrikes against Iran, commencing at 7:15 p.m. Eastern Time on July 11 (2:45 a.m. Iranian Time on July 12). Central Command released a statement on the social media platform X, stating that the strikes were conducted under the direct direction of President Trump and aimed to "continue to undermine Iran's ability to attack civilian sailors and merchant ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz." U.S. Defense Secretary Hergses briefly commented, "Iran made a bad choice, and now they are paying the price."

According to US military statistics, in the third round of airstrikes on the night of July 11, the US military struck approximately 140 Iranian military targets. These targets covered a variety of categories, including Iranian missile and drone launch sites, naval facilities, ammunition storage facilities, communication networks, and coastal surveillance stations. If the airstrikes of the three consecutive nights this week are combined, the US military has struck more than 300 Iranian targets in total. Iranian media reported that an Iranian military officer was killed in the airstrikes, and explosions occurred in multiple locations along Iran's southern coast, affecting Bushehr, Asaluyeh, Bandar Abbas, Deyar, and the Sirik region near the Strait of Hormuz.

II. Iran's full-scale retaliation: Multiple Gulf states attacked by missiles and drones.

Hours after the US airstrikes, Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched a large-scale retaliatory operation. The Revolutionary Guard announced that it had launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities deployed in several Middle Eastern countries.

The retaliatory actions unfolded in multiple phases. In the first phase, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard attacked the Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan, destroying its command and control center and the hangars for MQ-9 Reaper drones. In the second phase, the Revolutionary Guard targeted Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, destroying its command center and fighter jet overhaul and maintenance facilities. In the third phase, Iran launched a "heavy and sudden" attack on a US aircraft carrier logistics support center and refueling platform in the port of Duqm, Oman. In addition, the Iranian military deployed suicide drones to attack US Patriot air defense systems, ammunition depots, and radar stations in Kuwait, as well as US communication systems and radar facilities in Bahrain.

Tensions have escalated in several Gulf states. Qatar, which had previously acted as a mediator in the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, was affected by the conflict. Its air defenses intercepted an attack from Iran, but shrapnel still injured three people, including a child. Qatar subsequently condemned the Iranian attack in the strongest terms, saying it would dangerously escalate the situation. The UAE reported detecting missile threats outside its borders, Bahrain reported intercepting several Iranian airstrikes, Jordan reported missiles landing within its territory, and Oman reported a drone attack. The Kuwaiti military reported an attack on an oil rig, injuring one worker. The Omani government has summoned the Iranian ambassador to lodge a protest.

III. The Straits Dispute: Iran Announces Closure, US Insists on Opening

The US and Iran have presented conflicting narratives regarding the right of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Revolutionary Guard explicitly declared the strait "closed immediately until further notice," emphasizing that no vessels may pass through until the US ends its intervention in the region. The Revolutionary Guard also warned that Iran would respond swiftly to any attack using this incident as a pretext. Iran's newly established Persian Gulf Straits Authority also issued a statement on social media, saying that the Strait of Hormuz is currently impassable, but will resume reviewing passage applications and issuing necessary permits as planned once the situation stabilizes and calms.

However, the United States has vehemently denied this. The U.S. Central Command explicitly stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to all vessels lawfully transiting this international waterway. The Central Command emphasized that the U.S. military is fully deployed and prepared to ensure continued freedom of navigation, and explicitly stated that "Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz, and shipping in the strait is currently proceeding normally." President Trump, in a media interview, stated that the U.S. military "struck Iran hard." He claimed that the two sides were close to reaching an agreement, but Iran attacked merchant ships hours later.

U.S. military statistics show that more than 140 ships passed through the area in the past week. However, the average daily traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz before the war was about 140 ships, and the current traffic volume has decreased significantly. The Joint Maritime Information Center, led by the U.S. Navy, reiterated that despite the serious security threat, the southern route near Oman remains open for two-way traffic.

IV. Diplomacy in Peril: The Sixty-Day Negotiation Window on the Verge of Collapse

This escalation of military conflict has dealt a heavy blow to the already fragile ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran. On June 17th of this year, the US and Iran formally signed a memorandum of understanding, pledging to negotiate a final agreement within a maximum of sixty days. The memorandum included several provisions regarding the opening of shipping lanes, the unfreezing of assets, and nuclear non-proliferation commitments. However, just twenty-five days after the signing of the memorandum, the two sides have once again descended into intense military confrontation.

President Trump made it clear in early July that he believed the ceasefire agreement was over. In an interview, he stated bluntly, "I don't want to deal with them… As far as I'm concerned, dealing with them is a complete waste of time." Iran's chief negotiator and parliament speaker, Ghalibaf, responded strongly on social media: "The era of unilateral agreements is over. We told you: either keep your promises or pay the price. Reality is knocking on the door."

UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed deep concern over the escalation of the situation. His spokesperson issued a statement calling on all warring parties to "exercise maximum restraint, avoid further escalation, and immediately take de-escalation measures." Guterres warned that a resumption of full-scale hostilities would have catastrophic consequences for the people of the region, international peace and security, and the global economy.

V. Global Economic Turmoil: Soaring Energy Prices and Pressure on Financial Markets

The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas trade. This escalation of the conflict has directly impacted the global energy market. Affected by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict over the weekend, US crude oil futures opened higher and continued to rise on Monday, climbing nearly 4% at one point to a high of $74.20 per barrel. Analysts point out that although geopolitical conflict has once again pushed up oil prices, weak global demand and increased production from non-OPEC oil-producing countries are also contributing to expectations of ample market supply.

Meanwhile, global financial markets were also significantly impacted. Spot gold opened lower and continued to decline, falling nearly 1% to $4,080 per ounce at one point. US stock index futures generally opened lower, with S&P 500 futures down about 0.3% and Nasdaq futures down about 0.5%.

For the Trump administration, rising prices—especially gasoline prices—are a highly sensitive political issue ahead of the November congressional elections. In recent months, Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has already driven up energy prices and exacerbated global inflation.

VI. Conclusion

From attacks on merchant ships to multiple airstrikes, from Iran's full-scale retaliation to the declaration of a strait blockade, the military confrontation between the US and Iran is escalating at an alarming pace. This large-scale military operation against Iran, which began on February 28 with a joint US-Israel offensive, has once again spiraled into a cycle of violence after a ceasefire in April and a temporary agreement in June.

The escalating violence has not only cast a shadow over the prospects of the interim US-Iran agreement signed last month, but has also created greater uncertainty for the entire Gulf region and the global economy. The United Nations has called on both sides to immediately return to the negotiating table, but against the backdrop of increasingly hardline rhetoric and escalating military actions, the dawn of peace seems to be growing ever more distant. In the Strait of Hormuz, war and diplomacy are locked in fierce competition, and the fate of the global energy market and geopolitical landscape hangs in the balance.

Frequently Asked Questions

Question 1: What was the direct cause of the US airstrikes against Iran?

The immediate trigger for the US airstrikes was the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' attack on the Cypriot-flagged container ship "GFS Galaxy" in the Strait of Hormuz on July 11. According to the US Central Command, the ship caught fire and was damaged in the attack, and one Indian crew member is missing. The US described the attack as an "outright" attack by Iran against civilian merchant ships sailing in international waterways. Prior to this, Iran had repeatedly attacked merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including previous attacks on three oil tankers. The US airstrikes were conducted at the direction of President Trump and aimed to "disable Iran's ability to attack civilian seafarers and merchant ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz." This round of airstrikes was the third such attack launched by the US this week, following those on July 7 and July 9.

Question 2: Has the Strait of Hormuz really been closed? What does this mean for global energy transport?

The US and Iran have conflicting accounts regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officially announced on the morning of July 12th that the strait was "closed immediately until further notice," emphasizing that no vessels were permitted to pass until the US ceased its intervention in the region. Iran's Persian Gulf Straits Authority also issued a statement saying the strait was currently impassable. However, the US Central Command firmly denied this claim, stating explicitly that the Strait of Hormuz "remains open to all vessels lawfully transiting this international waterway," and stressing that "Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz." The US military stated that over 140 vessels had passed through the area in the past week. The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade. Regardless of whether the strait is truly closed, the current conflict itself has already severely impacted the global energy supply chain, with international oil prices rising by nearly 4% after the conflict escalated.

Question 3: Which countries were affected by Iran's retaliatory actions? What roles did these countries play previously?

Iran's retaliatory actions targeted several Gulf states hosting US troops. According to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, targets included Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan (whose command and control center and drone hangars were destroyed), Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar (whose command center and fighter jet maintenance facilities were destroyed), a US aircraft carrier logistics support center and refueling platform at Duqm port in Oman, as well as US radar stations, communication systems, and air defense facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain. Notably, Qatar, which had previously acted as a mediator in the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, became one of the targets of Iranian retaliation; three people were injured despite Qatar's air defenses intercepting the attacks. The UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, and Oman also reported attacks of varying degrees. The Omani government has summoned the Iranian ambassador to lodge a protest.

Question 4: What is the current status of the interim agreement signed between the US and Iran in June? Is there any possibility of salvaging it?

On June 17th of this year, the United States and Iran formally signed a memorandum of understanding, pledging to negotiate a final agreement within a maximum of sixty days. However, just twenty-five days after the signing of this memorandum, the two sides re-entered a fierce military confrontation. President Trump stated clearly in early July that he believed the ceasefire agreement was "over." Iran's chief negotiator, Ghalibaf, responded firmly: "The era of unilateral agreements is over." UN Secretary-General Guterres expressed deep concern about the escalation of the situation and called on both sides to immediately resume negotiations. However, against the backdrop of increasingly hardline rhetoric and escalating military actions, the prospects for this interim agreement are precarious, and the space for salvage is rapidly shrinking.

Question 5: What are the actual impacts of this escalation of the conflict on the global economy and ordinary consumers?

The escalation of this conflict has primarily impacted the global economy and ordinary consumers in two ways: energy prices and financial markets. The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately one-fifth of global oil trade, and the conflict caused US crude oil futures to surge by nearly 4%, reaching $74.20 per barrel. Rising energy prices will directly translate into higher prices for refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel, thereby increasing transportation costs and daily living expenses. For ordinary consumers, this means higher refueling costs and logistics expenses, ultimately reflected in a general increase in the prices of various goods. Furthermore, global financial markets have also been significantly impacted, with US stock index futures generally opening lower. For the Trump administration, rising prices—especially gasoline prices—are a highly sensitive political issue ahead of the November congressional elections. Analysts point out that while the geopolitical conflict has pushed up oil prices, factors such as weak global demand have to some extent offset the upward pressure.

At 06:31 Beijing time, US crude oil is currently trading at $73.60 per barrel.