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[Caixin Futures: Weakening Demand in Off-Season, Steel Prices Seek Bottom, Raw Materials Under Overall Pressure] ⑴ Steel: With the off-season approaching, end-user demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory pressure continues to accumulate, leaving steel prices lacking effective rebound momentum in the short term. Both long and short positions in the top 20 rebar futures contracts increased significantly, with short positions showing a more pronounced increase; long and short positions in the hot-rolled coil futures contracts decreased slightly. Technically, the rebar futures contract has effectively broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and may continue its weak adjustment in the short term. In terms of valuation, steel mill profits continue to be under pressure, with losses widening. Futures prices are below the off-peak electricity cost line for electric arc furnaces in East China, resulting in a relatively low overall valuation. Supply and demand are generally weak, and steel prices may maintain a low-level, weak fluctuation in the short term. Operationally, it is recommended to continue the strategy of selling on rallies and avoid chasing short positions. ⑵ Iron Ore: Global shipments have fallen sharply month-on-month, and pig iron production has also declined from its peak, with both supply and demand weakening simultaneously. The September contract closed lower with reduced open interest. Technically, support is seen around 735 yuan/ton, while resistance is around 755 yuan/ton. Both long and short positions among the top 20 holders decreased, with roughly equal amounts, indicating a continued tug-of-war between bulls and bears. While supply-side disruptions have provided some support to sentiment, the overall supply-demand imbalance remains largely unchanged, and prices are likely to remain range-bound in the short term. (3) Coking Coal: Safety inspections in Shanxi continue under high pressure, with repeated mine shutdowns and restarts, resulting in a slow pace of production releases. Pig iron production has declined from its highs, coupled with rising expectations of coking coal price reductions, leading to cautious downstream purchasing. Short-term coal prices are expected to remain weak and volatile. Both long and short positions among the top 20 holders of the September contract decreased, with a larger reduction in short positions, indicating a weakening willingness to actively suppress prices. With steel mill profits under pressure, downstream demand for lower prices is increasing, raising the risk of negative feedback in the industry chain. Coking coal valuations face downward pressure, but continued supply-side disruptions may limit further downside. (4) Coking Coal: Weakening coal prices have led to a slight recovery in coking plant profits, with output likely to remain stable or increase slightly. Pig iron production has peaked and is expected to decline further, weakening demand-side drivers. The futures main contract is trading at a significant discount to the spot price, indicating relatively low valuations. The September contract continues its downward trend, with support at 1835. Steel mill losses are widening, making the implementation of the tenth round of price increases more difficult, and expectations of price reductions are rising, leading to a downward shift in market valuations. However, the large basis level may limit further declines. (5) Manganese Silicon: Fundamentals remain weak and stable. Manganese ore port inventories continue to accumulate, demand is weak, and plant operating rates remain low, resulting in increased plant inventories and overall weak driving forces. The September contract was pressured by the 40-day moving average and closed lower, with support at the 20-day moving average. Both long and short positions among the top 20 holders decreased, with short positions seeing a larger reduction.