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[Cocoa Futures Fall Over 10% from Highs; Ample West African Supply in the Short Term Cannot Mask Concerns About Reduced Production in the New Season] ⑴ Cocoa futures have been falling continuously since reaching an eight-month high of $6,455/ton on July 9th, currently trading around $5,700/ton. Profit-taking and long position liquidation are the main drivers, as short-term supply data releases ample signals. ⑵ Institutional data shows that from October 1, 2025 to July 5, 2026, farmers in Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa producer, shipped 2.07 million tons to ports, a significant increase of 21% year-on-year. Meanwhile, exchange-monitored cocoa stocks rose to a near two-year high of 3.15 million bags, significantly easing short-term supply pressure. ⑶ However, market concerns about the new season's supply have not dissipated. Affected by excessive rainfall related to El Niño and poor planting management, the 2026/27 main season harvest in Côte d'Ivoire is expected to decline by more than 10%, providing a floor for prices in the medium to long term. (4) Local growers reported that torrential rains in late June flooded some plantations, resulting in persistently high soil moisture. More sunshine is urgently needed to control disease risks and ensure the normal growth of the main crop from September to February of the following year. (5) The flowering period will continue until September, and the final harvest size depends on the proportion of flowers that successfully form pods. Climate conditions during this crucial growth stage will be a key focus for the market in the coming months, and any adverse weather could reignite speculation about supply shortages. (6) The interplay between ample short-term inventory and medium-term production reduction expectations will continue to dominate cocoa price movements. If prices decline further around $5700/ton, the potential upward momentum of the new season's fundamentals should be closely monitored.