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[Bank of England Deeply Divided by Wait-and-See Stance; Bailey's Speech Lacks Hawkishness; Data Remains the Sole Anchor for Interest Rate Repricing] ⑴ Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak at the City of London's annual dinner on Tuesday. Against the backdrop of rising market expectations for interest rate hikes, his wording will be a key window into whether the balance within the Monetary Policy Committee has shifted. ⑵ Current market pricing indicates that the market has fully priced in one rate hike this year, with a probability of a second hike of approximately 28%. Overnight index swaps reflect a tightening of approximately 37 basis points before the end of the year. ⑶ The Monetary Policy Committee's stance is increasingly divided. The June meeting saw a 7-2 vote to keep interest rates unchanged, with two members advocating a 25 basis point hike to 4.00%, but the committee as a whole remains anchored in a wait-and-see mode. ⑷ Bailey has repeatedly emphasized that the slowdown in economic growth and the cooling of the labor market provide a basis for maintaining the current policy. His core logic is to prevent rising energy costs from evolving into a second round of inflationary effects on wages and corporate pricing, rather than rashly following short-term price fluctuations. (5) In his past statements, Bailey has consistently prioritized "patient observation" over action, clearly indicating that interest rate cuts are not yet back on the agenda, but also failing to release a strong signal of urgency for rate hikes. His stance is essentially one of waiting for further guidance from data. (6) Institutional analysis points out that escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices will once again make inflationary pressures a focus of the Monetary Policy Committee. However, Bailey's speech is more likely to continue the weighing of economic weakness and inflation risks rather than signaling a clear policy shift. (7) The real driving force behind the subsequent interest rate path still comes from actual data: whether the CPI returns to above 3%, whether wage growth continues to outpace productivity growth, the extent of energy price transmission, and the speed of cooling in the job market. These four indicators will jointly determine whether an interest rate hike will actually materialize this year.