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[Caixin Futures: Rapeseed Oil Breaks Through 10,000 Yuan Mark, Leading the Rally in Edible Oils; Soybean Meal and Corn Remain Weak] ⑴ Domestic edible oil futures prices diverged on Thursday. The rapeseed oil main contract 2609 performed strongly, closing up 1.02% and breaking through the 10,000 yuan mark to 10,037 yuan per ton, while soybean oil and palm oil main contracts closed down 0.34% and 0.71% respectively. ⑵ Rapeseed oil prices were relatively strong in the short term due to concerns about the impact of high temperatures on rapeseed growth caused by heat waves in Canada's main producing areas, coupled with overnight gains in ICE rapeseed futures and tight domestic spot prices. ⑶ Currently, the overall fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are weak. The peak season for soybean arrivals has not yet passed, with imports reaching 13.5472 million tons in June. Cumulative imports from January to June increased by 1.5% year-on-year. Domestic crushing volume is nearly 10 million tons, leading to continued inventory accumulation of soybean oil. Palm oil is entering its seasonal off-season, with reduced demand and sluggish spot transactions. Fundamental factors continue to suppress the rebound in futures prices. (4) In the spot market, the spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong fell by 70 yuan to 9,100 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean oil fell by 30 yuan to 8,790 yuan per ton. Meanwhile, the price of genetically modified rapeseed oil in Jiangsu rose by 30 yuan to 10,540 yuan per ton. (5) Soybean meal futures are mainly on the sidelines, avoiding chasing high prices. Due to improved expectations for US soybean exports coupled with unfavorable weather in US soybean producing areas, US soybean futures rose, driving up import costs. Domestic soybean oil and soybean meal futures prices followed suit. Domestically, the spot market is still in a phase of inventory accumulation, with relatively high supply pressure. Downstream demand is flat, and the enthusiasm for building inventory is not high. The supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged, and the spot basis remains weak. Recently, the core logic of soybean meal prices revolves around import costs, fluctuating in line with US soybean futures prices. In the short term, attention should be paid to the trend of US soybeans, weather, and Sino-US trade policies. (6) Corn futures are mainly shorting on rallies, as the fundamental loose situation remains unchanged. Traders in producing areas are shipping goods according to market conditions. Changes in the new season's wheat and imported grains are increasing overall grain supply pressure. Downstream demand enterprises are mostly maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy. Given the strong supply and weak demand, prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term. Operationally, it is recommended to maintain a short-selling strategy on rallies. (7) For live pigs, a short-selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Recently, the second breeding season has cooled down, spot prices have weakened, and the futures market has corrected, validating previous logic. A short-selling strategy on rallies is recommended. In the medium to long term, the breeding industry may see some recovery, but the recovery space is limited. Attention should be paid to the strength of policy support. (8) From a month-on-month perspective, due to the decline in sow inventory 10 months ago, the theoretical supply in the second half of the year has decreased month-on-month, but the magnitude is very limited. Coupled with the peak season for pork consumption in the second half of the year (lower temperatures and holidays such as the winter solstice and the Spring Festival), under the pattern of reduced supply and increased demand, coupled with the recent frequent government policies guiding production reduction (the implementation needs to be continuously observed), the breeding industry may see a phased recovery. A short-selling strategy on rallies is recommended.