Spot gold (XAU/USD) saw a modest rebound during Friday's Asian trading session, recovering some of the previous day's losses, but remained near its monthly lows. Looking at the overall market environment, the upward momentum for gold remains limited. The resilient US economic fundamentals, coupled with escalating tensions in the Middle East pushing up energy prices, have reignited concerns about global inflationary pressures. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its high-interest-rate policy have further intensified, leading to continued appeal of the US dollar and sustained downward pressure on gold, which does not generate interest income. The military conflict between the United States and Iran continues to escalate, with both sides expanding their military operations on Thursday. Market research indicates that some civilian infrastructure, including power facilities and railway stations, in the southern Iranian port of Bandar Abbas was attacked, while Iran countered by striking targets in the Gulf region, including those of US allies, using missiles and drones. Meanwhile, tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have further deteriorated, with the US strengthening its maritime blockade and intercepting commercial vessels attempting to cross the blockade zone. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of the world's seaborne crude oil transport , and its security situation remains a key focus of the international energy market. At the same time, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard warned of a possible further expansion of the conflict. Market research shows that Iran has requested the Houthi rebels in Yemen to prepare for a blockade of energy transport routes in the Red Sea. Market concerns about increased risks to major global energy transport routes have driven international oil prices up by more than 10% this week, reaching a near one-month high. The continued rise in energy prices not only increases global supply risks but also strengthens market expectations of a resurgence of imported inflation. On the macroeconomic front, the latest US data continues to signal economic resilience. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that initial jobless claims fell to 208,000 in the week ending July 11, lower than market expectations, indicating that the U.S. job market remains robust. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July surged to 41.4 from 10.3 , the highest level since November 2021, reflecting a significant improvement in U.S. manufacturing activity, with business orders, production, and price indicators all continuing to expand. At the same time, several Federal Reserve officials continued to release hawkish signals. Dallas Fed President Lori Logan stated that while recent consumer and producer inflation data have improved, they are still insufficient to confirm that inflation has returned to the target level, and the Fed still needs to moderately tighten monetary policy further to ensure long-term price stability. Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson also stated that if inflation fails to improve sustainably in the coming months, another rate hike cannot be ruled out. Driven by strong economic data and hawkish comments, the market continues to adjust its monetary policy expectations. Currently, the market estimates that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points again in December is close to 75% . The high-interest-rate environment has not only kept US Treasury yields high but also continued to support the strength of the US dollar index, significantly limiting the upside potential for gold. However, the gold market has not completely lost support. With the ongoing escalation of the Middle East situation, global safe-haven demand remains, and gold may still see periodic inflows whenever the conflict escalates further or energy transportation risks intensify. Therefore, the current gold price movement reflects a tug-of-war between high-interest-rate pressures and safe-haven demand, and is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The focus will be on the upcoming US data releases on building permits, new home starts, industrial production, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and inflation expectations, while also paying close attention to speeches by Federal Reserve officials. If economic data continues to be strong, market expectations for the duration of high interest rates may further intensify, thus continuing to support the dollar and limiting gold's rebound; conversely, if economic data shows signs of slowing, it could alleviate the dollar's rise and provide some rebound opportunities for gold. From a technical perspective, gold is still trading within a downward channel on the daily chart, with prices continuously constrained by long-term moving averages, and the overall medium-term correction structure remains unchanged. Although the MACD indicator shows signs of a low-level rebound and the bearish momentum has weakened, a valid golden cross has not yet formed, indicating that the market rebound is still limited. Momentum indicators also reflect a narrowing of the bearish advantage, but the overall trend remains bearish. Currently, the first resistance level to watch is the upper trendline of the descending channel around $4050 . A further break above this level could test the important long-term moving average resistance area around $4150 . On the downside, the key support level to watch is the lower trendline of the descending channel around $3900. A decisive break below this level would further confirm the continuation of the bearish trend and could open up further downside potential. Observing the 4-hour chart, the recent rebound in gold is mainly a technical correction within a downtrend, and the price has not yet escaped the short-term downtrend. The MACD maintains a weak recovery in the short term, indicating some recovery in buying pressure, but its sustainability remains to be seen. Short-term moving averages are beginning to flatten, indicating that the market is entering a directional selection phase. If the price can hold above $4,050, it may challenge higher resistance levels in the short term; conversely, if it falls below the recent low and breaks below the $3,900 support, the bearish momentum may strengthen again, and the price may continue to seek support downwards. Editor's Summary : In summary, the escalating conflict between the US and Iran continues to push up international oil prices, reigniting global inflation risks. Meanwhile, strong US employment and manufacturing data, coupled with hawkish signals from several Federal Reserve officials, have reinforced market expectations that the high-interest-rate environment will persist for a longer period. This has kept the US dollar strong, exerting sustained downward pressure on gold. At the same time, geopolitical risks continue to provide some safe-haven demand for gold, making a unilateral decline in gold prices unlikely in the short term. Going forward, market focus will remain on US economic data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and developments in the Middle East. Gold is expected to continue to oscillate between safe-haven support and a strong dollar, and its short-term trend may remain one of weak and volatile fluctuations.