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[Geopolitical risks resurface, refining bottlenecks exacerbate shortages, oil prices fluctuate at high levels awaiting a breakout] ⑴ A new round of standoff between Iran and the United States around the Strait of Hormuz reversed the brief calm brought by the June memorandum of understanding. Brent crude oil returned to the mid-$80 range, and WTI crude oil approached the $80 mark in tandem. Both saw their largest weekly gains in weeks, and the market's pricing focus shifted from confirming losses to probabilistic trading based on escalating threats. ⑵ Ship tracking shows that vessels can still pass through the strait, but traffic volume has sharply decreased and insurance and security costs have soared. The actual flow in the Persian Gulf is more than 10 million barrels per day below normal levels. Even considering the possibility of some vessels turning off their transponders, leading to statistical underestimation, damaged shipping confidence has brought the export recovery momentum to a halt. ⑶ Saudi Arabia and the UAE played a leading role in the June rebound thanks to their alternative pipeline capabilities, but other oil-producing countries are constrained by port congestion and difficulties in restarting oil fields, and their overall production is still significantly lower than in February. Further restrictions on Iranian ports and coastal areas may further reduce its exports by millions of barrels per day, making the supply-side recovery path no longer linear. (4) The crude oil shortage is rapidly transmitting to the finished product market. Reduced arrivals from the Middle East are forcing refineries in the Eastern Suez market to reduce operating rates. Coupled with spring maintenance and a shortage of heavy feedstocks, global refining volume has shrunk significantly compared to pre-crisis levels. High US crack spreads and retail jet fuel and diesel prices have surged by about 70-80% since February, highlighting the tight supply of middle distillates. (5) Following the attack on Russian refining capacity, operating rates have fallen to multi-year lows, forcing the country to substitute crude oil exports for finished product supply. Large-scale offshore inventories and the quality mismatch between light shale oil and heavy Middle Eastern crude oil have further exacerbated diesel production shortages. Even though some Asian refineries saw a month-on-month increase in operating rates in June, the global refining system still faces a capacity gap of millions of barrels per day. (6) Macroeconomic demand signals are becoming increasingly fragile. High oil prices are suppressing the transportation and chemical sectors. China's purchasing is becoming more price-sensitive. While India shows resilience, the region as a whole is constrained by freight and raw material costs. The penetration rate of electric vehicles also creates a ceiling for long-term gasoline growth. The struggle between supply and demand is keeping short-term volatility high. (7) Brent and WTI are expected to trade within a wide range in the near term, with geopolitical tensions and low inventory levels providing support. However, demand disruption and potential negotiations could trigger a rapid correction. The market is also constrained by three variables: Straits risk, refinery bottlenecks, and weak macroeconomics. A decisive breakout in any direction would open up new price potential.