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2026-07-17 20:48:12
[US Single-Family Housing Starts and Building Permits Both Decline in June; High Mortgage Rates Suppress Builder Confidence] ⑴ US single-family housing starts fell slightly by about 0.2% month-over-month in June to an annualized rate of 895,000 units, while the year-over-year decline widened to 3.2%. Single-family building permits fell by about 2.4% month-over-month to 871,000 units, also declining by about 0.2% year-over-year. The simultaneous weakening of these two core indicators reflects builders' cautious outlook on demand. ⑵ Since the escalation of the Middle East conflict at the end of February, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed by about 60 basis points, reaching an 11-month high of 6.55% this week. The continued rise in financing costs has directly weakened homebuyers' affordability and pushed new home inventory to levels close to those of late 2007. (3) A survey by the National Association of Home Builders showed that builder sentiment remained weak in July, compounded by geopolitical uncertainty and rising material and land costs. Although Congress recently passed a bipartisan housing affordability bill that restricts institutional investment in single-family homes and simplifies environmental impact assessments, its effects will take time to materialize. (4) Multi-family housing starts surged approximately 76% month-over-month to 513,000 units, driving an overall increase of about 19% in new home starts. However, multi-family building permits declined by nearly 5% month-over-month, suggesting that this surge in supply may be a short-term phenomenon, and the overall cooling trend in construction activity has not fundamentally changed.
