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2026-07-18 08:54:12
[Crude Oil Freight Rates Fluctuate at High Levels, Geopolitical Premiums Continue to Support the VLCC Market] ⑴ Data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange shows that freight rates in China's imported VLCC shipping market fluctuated at high levels this week. The CTFI composite index was 4360.85 points, a slight increase of about 0.7% compared to the previous period, but still at a relatively high level in recent years. ⑵ The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with the US launching a new round of airstrikes on military facilities in Iran, while Tehran retaliated against targets in the Persian Gulf region. The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted, and the two major energy choke points face the risk of simultaneous paralysis, with geopolitical premiums continuing to inject into the oil shipping market. ⑶ On the fundamental side, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by about 1.69 million barrels to 410 million barrels last week, while exports increased by nearly 460,000 barrels per day. The four-week average supply of crude oil products increased slightly by about 0.3% year-on-year, with both supply and demand supporting freight rates. (4) From a market psychology perspective, there are no signs of the situation in the Middle East easing up, and shipowners are highly risk-averse on the Persian Gulf route. If a new blockade occurs in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, it will force more ships to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, further lengthening the effective shipping distance and pushing up VLCC charter rates.
