International gold prices remained under pressure due to thin trading during the summer, repeatedly testing the key support level of $4,000 per ounce. Currently, Wall Street institutions are generally bearish on the short-term outlook for gold, while retail investors are highly divided, leading to intense competition between bulls and bears. Although weaker US inflation data and lower US Treasury yields provided some support for gold, escalating tensions between the US and Iran, soaring oil prices, and stronger-than-expected resilience in the US economy continued to suppress gold prices. Market Sentiment Survey: Wall Street Bearish, Retail Investors Diverge A recent gold market survey reveals a clear divergence in opinions between professional institutions and retail investors regarding the short-term trend of gold, with overall market sentiment leaning towards caution and pessimism. The survey included 14 professional analysts, with 79% (11) bearish on gold prices in the short term, only 7% (1) bullish, and the remaining 14% (2) believing gold prices will remain range-bound. Wall Street institutions have largely shifted to a bearish stance, primarily due to gold's inability to rally on positive news, resulting in a weak performance. Retail investor sentiment is relatively divided, with 169 valid questionnaires collected online. 40% (68) are bullish on gold prices next week, 36% (61) are bearish, and 24% (40) predict range-bound trading. Following this week's price decline, the proportion of bearish retail investors has slightly increased, exacerbating market uncertainty. Summary of Mainstream Analyst Views : 1. Wait-and-See Approach: Range-bound Trading Lacks Catalysts for Upward Movement . Adrian Day (President of Adrian Day Asset Management) stated that gold prices are likely to remain range-bound in the short term, with increased volatility and a lack of clear one-sided trends. Before a consensus is formed in the market that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates, gold is unlikely to break out upwards. However, the current price level is supported by continued buying from central banks, limiting the downside potential for gold. 2. Cautious Bullish Approach: Strong Support Levels and Rebound Opportunities After Oversold Conditions. Rich Checkan (President and COO of Asset Strategies International) believes that gold has tested the $4,000 support level multiple times in the past two months and successfully held it each time, indicating sustained bargain hunting at this level. Although gold does not currently have the conditions for a sustained surge, a rebound is highly likely based on key support levels. Paul Wong (Managing Partner and Market Strategist at Sprott Inc.) pointed out that gold is currently severely oversold technically, with multiple internal indicators showing that the price is in an oversold range of -2 to -3 standard deviations, and downward momentum has significantly weakened. From a funding structure perspective, Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) positions have become neutral, and the gold long positions reported by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have fallen to their lowest level since 2018. While there has been a slight outflow of gold from European and American ETFs, incremental funds in the Chinese ETF market have fully absorbed the outflowing capital, indicating solid fundamental support. He analyzed the seasonal patterns of gold, noting that historical seasonal lows for gold often occur in early August. Last August, after the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium, gold prices surged from $3,600 to $4,500. He anticipates that August this year may see catalysts, including escalating geopolitical conflicts, bond market volatility, or signals of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, driving a rebound in gold. Jesse Colombo (founder of BubbleBubble Report and independent precious metals analyst) stated that gold has been declining continuously since the end of January this year, and the market has fully priced in bearish sentiment. Recently, sellers have repeatedly tested the $3,960-$3,980 support range without a significant break, indicating strong buying support and suggesting that the selling pressure is nearing its end. From a technical perspective, gold has formed a converging triangle pattern on the daily chart, with volatility continuing to contract, suggesting a high probability of a directional breakout in the near future. He holds a cautiously optimistic view on the subsequent price movement. Michael Moor (founder of Moor Analytics), through cyclical indicator analysis, points out that the gold price decline is nearing its end, with a temporary exhaustion low around $3955. If gold effectively breaks through the $4019 resistance level, a multi-day rebound will begin, with a medium-term correction target of $4963. 3. Strongly bearish: The downtrend is clear, and there is still room for further decline. Adam Button (Head of Currency Strategy at investingLive) believes that the continued intensification of the sell-off in US tech stocks could trigger a chain reaction of asset sell-offs across the entire market, and the sharp decline in risk assets will continue to suppress gold's price. Thu Lan Nguyen (Head of FX and Commodities Research at Commerzbank) analyzes that the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the unresolved risk of a surge in oil prices, and the long-term expectation of a Fed rate hike completely limit the short-term upside potential for gold. Alex Kuptsikevich (Senior Market Analyst at FxPro) points out that gold has been weakening since peaking in January, with the downward trend becoming increasingly pronounced since May, and rebound highs consistently falling. Capital outflows from US stocks and resilient US economic data have weakened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. He predicts that gold prices may fall to $3,300 in September, with weaker-than-expected earnings in the AI sector and increased supply of related equity and bonds potentially accelerating the decline. CPM Group issued a sell rating on July 17th when gold was at $3,980, with a short-term target price of $3,820 and a stop-loss at $4,090. The institution states that gold continues to show a weak pattern of lower highs and lower lows, with a clear short-term downward trend. Although long-term positive factors for gold have gradually accumulated since August, a bearish outlook is still warranted at this stage. Marc Chandler (Managing Director of Bannockburn Global Forex) believes that gold's weak performance will likely lead to a retest of the June low of $3,943, with short-term resistance at the 20-day moving average of $4,071. Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict may trigger official gold selling, and retail ETF funds continue to flow out, further suppressing gold prices. Market Outlook: Light Data, Geopolitical Sentiment Dominates Markets After last week's busy economic data releases and Fed speeches, this week's fundamental news is relatively light, typical of the summer trading lull. Gold price movements will be highly dependent on geopolitical news and market sentiment fluctuations. Key events are concentrated on Thursday and Friday: On Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision and hold a press conference with President Lagarde. The market widely expects interest rates to remain unchanged, while the US will release its weekly initial jobless claims data. On Friday, the US will release its preliminary July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and June new home sales data, providing crucial information for the market to assess the US economic outlook and indirectly affecting Fed policy expectations and gold price movements.