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Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level since May, as the risk of geopolitical conflict escalates sharply.

2026-07-24 23:49:01

Impacted by the sharp rise in geopolitical risks in the Middle East this week, risk aversion in the global oil market has intensified, with international crude oil futures prices once again breaking through the key $100 per barrel mark, reshaping the recent oil price landscape. Against this backdrop, only one crude oil tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, marking the lowest volume of cargo traffic through the strait since May 7th of this year, and a significant contraction in shipping activity along the core oil transport route. 图片点击可在新窗口打开查看 Real-time ship tracking data from Kpler, a globally renowned ship data analysis agency, revealed that while three oil tankers successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, maintaining a relatively high level of shipping activity, the number of vessels passing through plummeted on Thursday, with only one oil tanker completing its transit. This resulted in a precipitous drop in cargo traffic through the strait. Monitoring data shows that the sole vessel to transit was the very large crude carrier "New Giant," fully loaded with approximately 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basra Light crude oil. After completing its loading operations, it successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. According to its voyage plan, the vessel will embark on a long-haul journey across the Indian Ocean, expected to arrive at Rizhao Port in China in mid-August to unload its cargo. Meanwhile, shipping data showed an extremely low level of traffic in both directions. No oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf throughout Thursday, bringing import shipping to a complete standstill. In contrast to the quiet of the Strait of Hormuz, shipping traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea remained relatively high, serving as the main backup channel for Middle Eastern oil exports. Despite ongoing military attacks by the Houthi rebels in Yemen, resulting in persistently high maritime security risks and widespread market concerns that a complete blockade of Saudi Arabia's core oil export route in the event of a paralysis of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the passage has maintained basic navigability. However, shipping monitoring agencies have also observed a clear trend of risk-averse shipping. To avoid maritime attacks and ensure transport safety, several oil tankers transiting the Red Sea have proactively adjusted their routes, turning north towards the Suez Canal to avoid the ambush range of the pro-Iranian Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthi's maritime military operations have now replaced traditional geopolitical risks as a new and significant threat to the global supply chain of Middle Eastern crude oil. Data comparisons show that merchant ships circumventing the Red Sea, Suez Canal, and Mediterranean routes, or even further to the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa, to transport energy goods to Asia experience significantly increased voyage distances and longer shipping times. Overall, the transport time is more than three times that of the direct route through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, substantially increasing the time and logistical costs of global crude oil transportation. According to reports, Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's top oil giant, had previously initiated a shipping diversion strategy, shifting the vast majority of its crude oil freight routes from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to avoid the geopolitical risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz. The company is now further optimizing its global storage and transportation network, officially launching crude oil loading services at the Egyptian Mediterranean port of Sidi Kirill, further expanding its crude oil export channels and hedging against geopolitical risks. ING commodities analysts, in an industry research report released on Friday, explicitly warned: "If the geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf escalates further, market panic regarding a full-blown conflict in the Middle East will continue to spread, directly exposing massive global crude oil supplies to the risk of disruption." The analysts also pointed out that the current market risks are compounded by multiple negative factors, including the Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, disrupting Red Sea oil shipping, and the recent strong threatening rhetoric from former US President Trump against Iran. These multiple geopolitical conflicts continue to churn the international crude oil market.
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