Foreign Exchange Futures Positions Report: Dollar Longs Withdraw Significantly, Yen Shorts Liquidate Massively
2026-08-10 20:24:54
The weekly COT report shows the positions held by large speculators and asset management firms in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures market, serving as a sentiment indicator for market analysis. Below is the COT position data released by the Commodity Exchange Commission as of Tuesday, August 4th. There is a three-day lag between the report's release date and the actual positions recorded by traders. The report is released on Friday, but only contains data up to Tuesday. In terms of timing, it is more suitable for long-term traders. 
Last week, net long positions in the US dollar futures market fell sharply, and after the Bank of Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market, speculators shorting the yen closed out their short positions on a large scale. In other currencies, speculative funds shorting the euro and pound sterling reduced their positions; the long/short positions in commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar also shifted simultaneously. I. COT Positions Report: Major Speculators' Positions in Major Currencies US Dollar: Net long positions in the US dollar futures market plummeted by $12.5 billion to $35.9 billion, marking the fastest reduction in nearly two years. Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD): Large speculators reduced their net short positions in euro futures by 14,400 contracts, with the current net short position at 58,100 contracts. British Pound/US Dollar (GBP/USD): Large speculators and asset management institutions collectively reduced their net short positions in pounds by 23,000 contracts. US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): All trading groups collectively closed out over 110,000 short yen contracts. USD/CHF: Large speculators' net short positions in the Swiss franc fell to a 16-week low, indicating a significant weakening of short-selling pressure. USD/CAD: Large speculators added 2,000 net short positions in the Canadian dollar, reaching the peak of short-selling pressure since December 2024. AUD/USD: Long positions increased, with large speculators reducing their net short positions in the Australian dollar for the first time in seven weeks. NZD/USD: Both trading entities reduced their net short positions in the New Zealand dollar by a total of 16,500 contracts. II. Analysis of US Dollar Index (DXY) Futures Positions The cascading effects of the Japanese yen's intervention in the foreign exchange market and the latest Federal Reserve interest rate meeting are finally fully reflected in the position data. During the statistical period ending Tuesday, the net long position in US dollar futures decreased by $125 billion, corresponding to a 1.5% drop in the US dollar index during the same period, marking its worst weekly performance in two months. Currently, net long positions in the US dollar remain high at $35.9 billion, but the $125 billion reduction in a single week is not only the largest decrease in nearly two years, but also the second largest reduction in nearly six years. Asset management institutions simultaneously reduced their net long positions in the US dollar by 3,500 contracts, but their overall bullish stance remains unchanged, still holding 18,000 long contracts. However, short traders should be reminded that the US dollar index only fell further by 0.4% last week, consistently holding key support levels. If US inflation data this week is strong, the support level may be solidified; only if inflation data weakens significantly will the dollar support likely be breached. III. Analysis of Euro/US Dollar Futures Positions The current rebound in the euro was foreshadowed by position signals. Two weeks ago, the total size of euro short positions held by large speculators and asset management institutions reached a record high; two weeks before the short positions surged to their peak, the net short position in the euro had already expanded rapidly. Ultimately, the Fed's dovish policy meeting and the weakening dollar were the triggers for the short-selling sell-off, but futures positions had already given a warning signal. Technically, the euro's weekly chart showed a near-bullish outside candlestick pattern two weeks ago. While the total short position in the euro has slightly decreased from its historical high, the overall size remains high. If US economic data slightly misses expectations, coupled with a weakening dollar, the euro may experience a new round of upward movement. IV. USD/JPY Futures Position Analysis The market impact of the Japanese Ministry of Finance's intervention in the yen exchange rate is vividly reflected in the latest COT (Commodity Exchange Rate) data. As of Tuesday's close, traders across the market closed over 100,000 yen short contracts. Asset management institutions reduced their short positions by 38,400 contracts in a single week, marking the largest weekly change on record and the fastest short-covering speed in a decade. Meanwhile, large speculators increased their holdings of yen long contracts by 46,000 in a single week, also setting a new record; however, asset management institutions did not follow suit by going long on the yen. Even so, the Japanese Ministry of Finance stated it would intervene in the foreign exchange market again, with the tacit approval of the US Treasury, making the USD/JPY exchange rate a key target for short selling. Traders generally chose to short at higher levels, betting on a further strengthening of the yen. V. Commodity Currency Futures Positions (Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar) Analysis of AUD/USD Australian dollar futures positions did not change significantly, but overall bullish sentiment increased. Large speculators increased their AUD long positions by 6,000 contracts, reducing their net short positions for the first time in seven weeks, with the short position size remaining largely unchanged. NZD/USD Over the past five weeks, the net short position in the New Zealand dollar has halved, matching the continued strengthening of the New Zealand dollar. However, market bets on a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cooled, and the New Zealand dollar's upward trend may lack momentum; short-term speculative funds will maintain a net short position. The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen against the US dollar, but net short positions in the market have not contracted significantly. If the USD/CAD pair continues to decline, short sellers will be forced to liquidate their positions, further boosting the Canadian dollar.
Last week, net long positions in the US dollar futures market fell sharply, and after the Bank of Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market, speculators shorting the yen closed out their short positions on a large scale. In other currencies, speculative funds shorting the euro and pound sterling reduced their positions; the long/short positions in commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar also shifted simultaneously. I. COT Positions Report: Major Speculators' Positions in Major Currencies US Dollar: Net long positions in the US dollar futures market plummeted by $12.5 billion to $35.9 billion, marking the fastest reduction in nearly two years. Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD): Large speculators reduced their net short positions in euro futures by 14,400 contracts, with the current net short position at 58,100 contracts. British Pound/US Dollar (GBP/USD): Large speculators and asset management institutions collectively reduced their net short positions in pounds by 23,000 contracts. US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): All trading groups collectively closed out over 110,000 short yen contracts. USD/CHF: Large speculators' net short positions in the Swiss franc fell to a 16-week low, indicating a significant weakening of short-selling pressure. USD/CAD: Large speculators added 2,000 net short positions in the Canadian dollar, reaching the peak of short-selling pressure since December 2024. AUD/USD: Long positions increased, with large speculators reducing their net short positions in the Australian dollar for the first time in seven weeks. NZD/USD: Both trading entities reduced their net short positions in the New Zealand dollar by a total of 16,500 contracts. II. Analysis of US Dollar Index (DXY) Futures Positions The cascading effects of the Japanese yen's intervention in the foreign exchange market and the latest Federal Reserve interest rate meeting are finally fully reflected in the position data. During the statistical period ending Tuesday, the net long position in US dollar futures decreased by $125 billion, corresponding to a 1.5% drop in the US dollar index during the same period, marking its worst weekly performance in two months. Currently, net long positions in the US dollar remain high at $35.9 billion, but the $125 billion reduction in a single week is not only the largest decrease in nearly two years, but also the second largest reduction in nearly six years. Asset management institutions simultaneously reduced their net long positions in the US dollar by 3,500 contracts, but their overall bullish stance remains unchanged, still holding 18,000 long contracts. However, short traders should be reminded that the US dollar index only fell further by 0.4% last week, consistently holding key support levels. If US inflation data this week is strong, the support level may be solidified; only if inflation data weakens significantly will the dollar support likely be breached. III. Analysis of Euro/US Dollar Futures Positions The current rebound in the euro was foreshadowed by position signals. Two weeks ago, the total size of euro short positions held by large speculators and asset management institutions reached a record high; two weeks before the short positions surged to their peak, the net short position in the euro had already expanded rapidly. Ultimately, the Fed's dovish policy meeting and the weakening dollar were the triggers for the short-selling sell-off, but futures positions had already given a warning signal. Technically, the euro's weekly chart showed a near-bullish outside candlestick pattern two weeks ago. While the total short position in the euro has slightly decreased from its historical high, the overall size remains high. If US economic data slightly misses expectations, coupled with a weakening dollar, the euro may experience a new round of upward movement. IV. USD/JPY Futures Position Analysis The market impact of the Japanese Ministry of Finance's intervention in the yen exchange rate is vividly reflected in the latest COT (Commodity Exchange Rate) data. As of Tuesday's close, traders across the market closed over 100,000 yen short contracts. Asset management institutions reduced their short positions by 38,400 contracts in a single week, marking the largest weekly change on record and the fastest short-covering speed in a decade. Meanwhile, large speculators increased their holdings of yen long contracts by 46,000 in a single week, also setting a new record; however, asset management institutions did not follow suit by going long on the yen. Even so, the Japanese Ministry of Finance stated it would intervene in the foreign exchange market again, with the tacit approval of the US Treasury, making the USD/JPY exchange rate a key target for short selling. Traders generally chose to short at higher levels, betting on a further strengthening of the yen. V. Commodity Currency Futures Positions (Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar) Analysis of AUD/USD Australian dollar futures positions did not change significantly, but overall bullish sentiment increased. Large speculators increased their AUD long positions by 6,000 contracts, reducing their net short positions for the first time in seven weeks, with the short position size remaining largely unchanged. NZD/USD Over the past five weeks, the net short position in the New Zealand dollar has halved, matching the continued strengthening of the New Zealand dollar. However, market bets on a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cooled, and the New Zealand dollar's upward trend may lack momentum; short-term speculative funds will maintain a net short position. The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen against the US dollar, but net short positions in the market have not contracted significantly. If the USD/CAD pair continues to decline, short sellers will be forced to liquidate their positions, further boosting the Canadian dollar.
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