On Wednesday (August 26, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,653 per ounce. Gold prices retreated after hitting a more than three-month high of $4,696.59 per ounce on Tuesday, as they lost upward momentum near strong resistance around $4,700 per ounce. Meanwhile, investors were digesting the US Treasury's decision to double the size of its long-term Treasury bond repurchase operations. Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday, with US crude falling more than 4.55%, as the market perceived US sanctions against Iran to be less severe than expected, and reports surfaced that a ceasefire was imminent between the US and Iran.

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks closed higher across the board on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite rising 0.3%, 0.32%, and 0.66%, respectively. This was primarily driven by a rebound in tech stocks ahead of AI giant Nvidia's earnings report, while a drop in oil prices to a one-week low and a decline in long-term Treasury yields eased investor concerns stemming from the recent bond market crash. Market focus is on Nvidia's earnings report due on Wednesday, seen as a key test of the justification for the AI boom and the high valuations of tech stocks. Most large-cap tech stocks performed strongly, with Nvidia and Meta rising approximately 2.2% and nearly 2%, respectively. The chip index rebounded 1.4% after Monday's sharp decline, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged 4.9% after Raymond James upgraded its rating. In individual stocks, biotechnology company Moderna soared 14% after Barclays raised its target price, while Dick's Sports Products plunged 30.7% after lowering its annual earnings forecast, and Target's stock fell 3.8% after apologizing and removing Halloween products from shelves following controversy. On the economic data front, the U.S. consumer confidence index fell to a seven-month low in August, but the market still expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year. Investors are awaiting Wednesday's personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report and Fed Chairman Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday to further assess inflationary pressures and the direction of monetary policy.

Gold Market

Gold prices retreated slightly on Tuesday after hitting a more than three-month high of $4,696.59 per ounce in early trading, eventually settling near $4,670 per ounce. This was mainly due to gold losing upward momentum as it approached strong resistance near $4,700, while investors were digesting the U.S. Treasury's decision to double the size of its long-term bond repurchase operations. Market focus has shifted to Wednesday's release of the US July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report and Friday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium, seeking further clues about the monetary policy outlook. However, weak PPI and CPI data this month have lowered near-term interest rate hike expectations, with CME Group's FedWatch showing traders pricing in only a 38% probability of a September rate hike. In other precious metals, spot silver edged down 0.43% to $68.64 per ounce, while platinum and palladium fell 1.2% and 1.8%, respectively. On the data front, China's net gold imports via Hong Kong rose approximately 11% month-on-month in July, reflecting a recovery in investment demand.

oil market

Oil prices plunged on Tuesday, hitting a one-week low. Brent crude fell 5.64% to settle at $86.77 a barrel, its lowest level since August 14, while WTI crude fell 4.55% to $81.11 a barrel, its lowest level since August 13. Market traders believe that the latest US economic sanctions against Iran pose a lower risk to oil supplies than an escalation of military conflict. Some traders also believe the sanctions are not as severe as expected. Furthermore, the shift from military confrontation to economic pressure between the US and Iran has rekindled hopes for a negotiated solution, further easing concerns about supply disruptions. However, some analysts caution that oil prices could still rebound sharply if Iran launches a military strike against US facilities in the Middle East. Geopolitically, Iran has vowed retaliation and believes its major trading partners will resist US pressure. Shipping data showed that commodity shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell to a three-month low on Monday, with only two oil tankers passing through. The UK's Office for Maritime Trade Operations reported that an oil tanker was hit by an unidentified projectile near Oman and rendered incapable of navigation, but these factors failed to reverse the day's decline in oil prices.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar index edged down 0.08% to 98.90 on Tuesday, mainly due to concerns about devaluation triggered by the U.S. Treasury doubling its quarterly buyback program for long-term bonds, and market perceptions of insufficient details regarding the latest sanctions against Iran. Meanwhile, falling oil prices and a second consecutive day of declines in bond yields also put pressure on the dollar. The euro edged up 0.09% against the dollar to 1.1673, the pound rose 0.1% to 1.3644, the dollar was virtually unchanged against the yen at 159.22, and the dollar gained 0.1% against the Canadian dollar to 1.3836. Despite the US announcing a 50% tariff on Canadian automobiles and steel starting in 2027 after trade negotiations broke down, and Canada immediately retaliating with aid measures, the market still expects the dispute to eventually be resolved, thus limiting the Canadian dollar's decline. The market's focus will now shift to Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, seeking further clues about the interest rate path, but many economists expect he may not reveal a clear policy outlook.

International News

Reports indicate that the US and Iran are close to reaching a ceasefire agreement. According to RIA Novosti, citing Pakistani and Iranian military sources, the US and Iran have reportedly reached a ceasefire agreement, which is expected to be officially announced in the coming days. This rumored agreement includes freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of negotiations based on the Islamabad memorandum. Neither the US nor Iran has confirmed the agreement; meanwhile, Oman and Iran have proposed temporary mechanisms to restore navigation in the strait. Sources: Iran hopes to convey its negotiating conditions to the US through Pakistan. According to Iranian sources on the 25th local time, a source close to the Iranian negotiating team stated that Iran hopes to clearly convey its position and negotiating conditions regarding the Strait of Hormuz to the US through Pakistan. The source said that Iran clearly explained its position to Pakistan during its meeting with visiting Pakistani Army Chief of Staff Munir on the 24th. Iran's proposed conditions include the US complying with the Islamabad memorandum of understanding and fulfilling its relevant provisions, including Article 5 concerning Iran's arrangements for the management of the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV News) Iran and Oman discuss proposed "temporary joint maritime corridor" for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Oman News Agency, citing a joint statement from Iran and Oman, reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi discussed a "temporary framework" aimed at restoring shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, as the two sides continue long-standing negotiations on navigation in this crucial waterway. According to the statement, the initiative proposes establishing a "temporary joint maritime corridor" and conducting minesweeping projects to restore shipping safety in the region. The statement said that the two sides will continue technical talks to reach an agreement on a permanent maritime corridor, a future management mechanism for the strait, and arrangements for information exchange, shipping management, and related maritime and security services. Gharibabadi: Southern channel of the Strait of Hormuz to be closed. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated that the southern channel of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed, and this has been agreed upon. Oman has agreed to close the channel, and the relevant matters will be reported to the International Maritime Organization. Iran and Oman will begin negotiations on the future management of the Strait of Hormuz, with a joint arrangement expected to take approximately 60 days to draft. If Iran's demands are not met, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. Canada plans to impose tariffs of up to 50% on $20 billion worth of US goods, starting September 8th, escalating its trade dispute with the US government. The tariffs will cover steel, aluminum, motorcycles, appliances, and food, with tariffs on metals doubling to 50%. Ottawa also announced $7.5 billion in support funds for affected businesses and workers. This retaliatory tariff stems from the US imposing a new 50% tariff on Canadian imports after trade negotiations broke down. Trump: Zero Tolerance for Iran's Mine Laying in the Strait of Hormuz US President Trump posted on social media on August 25 that all mines in the international waters of the Strait of Hormuz have been cleared or detonated. The US has a "zero tolerance" policy towards Iran's mine-laying activities, and any ships that lay new mines will be immediately destroyed. (Xinhua) Rubio Says US Has No Plans for New Strikes Against Iran It was learned on August 25 local time that a US official and another informed source revealed that US Secretary of State Rubio recently told diplomatic officials from several allied countries that the US "at present" will not initiate a new round of military strikes against Iran, but will instead focus on other means of pressure. One US official stated that Rubio clearly indicated that the US currently does not plan to resume large-scale military operations, but if Iran launches an attack first, the US has not ruled out the possibility of another strike. Another US official said that this policy is expected to remain in place at least until after the midterm elections, at which time a reconsideration of military action is not ruled out. It is reported that the Trump administration's current policy toward Iran mainly includes: temporarily avoiding new military action against Iran; increasing economic pressure on Iran through a US naval blockade and new Treasury sanctions; and maximizing the volume of oil shipments entering the global market via the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in September is 60.4% . According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged by September is 60.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 39.6%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged by October is 45.7%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 44.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 9.7%.

Domestic News

Representatives at the China-US Track 1.5 Dialogue Look Forward to Strengthening Practical Cooperation On August 25, the third China-US Track 1.5 Dialogue, co-hosted by the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Asia Society, was held in Beijing. The theme was "Constructive Strategic Stability – Practical Cooperation between China and the US in the New Era." Approximately 40 representatives from relevant Chinese departments, local governments, think tanks, universities, and the US strategic and business communities participated. (Xinhua) Chinese Research Team Successfully Prepares Large-Area Copper-Zinc-Tin-Sulfur-Selenium Thin-Film Photovoltaic Modules It was learned from the Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, that the research team led by Professor Meng Qingbo has successfully prepared large-area copper-zinc-tin-sulfur-selenium thin-film photovoltaic modules. The module's photoelectric conversion efficiency reached 13.0%, breaking the world record for this type of module and laying a solid foundation for the industrialization of next-generation low-cost, environmentally friendly solar cells. This achievement was recently published in the international academic journal *Nature Materials*. (CCTV News) Sales of Gold Bars in Shuibei Surge, Gold Prices Soar, Gold Bars Are Hot Again Recently, international gold prices have rebounded rapidly. The domestic gold retail market has also fluctuated accordingly. As a "weathervane" for the national gold and jewelry market, the Shuibei market in Shenzhen saw a small peak in customer traffic over the weekend. During the investigation, reporters found that as gold prices fluctuate at high levels, consumers are no longer blindly pursuing larger sizes, but instead favor products that combine lightweight design and attractive aesthetics. Many merchants stated that exquisitely crafted, low-weight products have become the absolute sales driver. At the same time, investment gold bars have also seen a significant sales increase. Shops specializing in investment gold bars have seen a noticeable increase in customers inquiring and purchasing. (CCTV Finance)