Gold and silver prices rose during the early US trading session on Friday (September 18). A combination of factors, including declining international crude oil prices, falling US Treasury yields, and a weaker dollar, propelled precious metals to continue their rebound following the Fed's interest rate hike. Spot gold traded around $4,356.09 per ounce, up 0.33%; spot silver was quoted at $66.355, up 1.72% on the day. The market is reassessing Wednesday's Federal Reserve rate hike decision and subsequent policy guidance, which forms the core logic of current market pricing. The Fed unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points, signaling that another rate hike in 2026 is still possible. However, with the decline in oil prices and US Treasury yields, the short-term interest rate shock has subsided. The 10-year US Treasury yield is currently in the 4.93%-4.94% range, lower than the 5.04% high reached this week; the US dollar index surged after the Fed's decision, but the upward momentum has stalled. US initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 last week, highlighting the continued strength of the labor market and allowing the Fed to maintain its tightening policy stance. For gold, the market environment is favorable but not entirely clear: declining yields and falling oil prices support a rebound in gold prices, but the Fed under Warsh has not ruled out the risk of another rate hike. The "oil price-US Treasury yield-US dollar" linkage that suppressed precious metals earlier this week has reversed, and gold and silver have begun a recovery. Gold has regained its position above the 10-day moving average and is testing the key technical breakout level of $4,381. Silver performed relatively stronger, rebounding from the support level of $62.98 and attempting to break through the resistance level of $66.97-$68.33. However, this rebound still faces preconditions: if international crude oil prices remain near current levels and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains below 5%, the precious metals rebound is likely to continue; if oil prices or US Treasury yields rise again, market concerns about Fed rate hikes will quickly resurface. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key geopolitical variable affecting oil prices, inflation expectations, and safe-haven buying. Iran stated that it attacked an oil tanker attempting to cross the strait; although Saudi Arabia is opening alternative export routes through Oman and partially restoring pipeline capacity, shipping volume in the strait remains far below normal levels. Brent crude is close to $104 per barrel, and WTI crude is around $101 per barrel, with oil prices declining for the third consecutive trading day. Market pricing reflects some progress in alternative oil transportation routes, rather than a complete resolution of the conflict. For gold, geopolitical tensions have a two-way impact: lower oil prices ease inflationary pressures, benefiting a rebound in precious metals; however, the Strait of Hormuz crisis remains unresolved, bringing continued safe-haven buying to gold. If the situation escalates again, inflation expectations risk another surge. Global markets diverged before the US stock market opened. Asian stocks mostly closed higher, boosted by falling oil prices and easing bond market pressures; major European stock indices declined in early trading. Following Thursday's rebound, US stock index futures fluctuated slightly and rose slightly. On the one hand, the market digested the easing expectations brought by the Fed's decision; on the other hand, investors still need to weigh the risk that the Fed may raise interest rates again. The bond market remains the core anchor for cross-asset market movements. Major external market performance: New York WTI crude oil prices fell to around $97.59 per barrel; Brent crude oil approached $104.49 per barrel. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield was around 4.992%. The US dollar index showed divergent trends, generally weak. Gold technical analysis. The next upside target for spot gold bulls is to push the price above the resistance level of $4381.00; if this level is broken, the next target is $4396.15, followed by $4966.00. The short-term downside target for bears is to push the price below $4281.62, with further downside targets at $4270.00 and $4235.00. The first resistance level is $4381.00, followed by $4396.15; the first support level is $4281.62, followed by $4270.00. Silver technical analysis... The next upside target for spot silver bulls is to push the price above $66.97; a break above that level would target $68.33, followed by $71.18. The downside target for bears is to push the price below $65.32, with further downside targets at $62.98 and $62.31. The first resistance level is $66.97, followed by $68.33; the first support level is $65.32, followed by $62.98.