Trump stated that with domestic fuel prices soaring ahead of the November midterm elections, the White House is still seriously considering a diesel export ban. Analysts warn that an export ban could backfire, pushing up global diesel prices; and that U.S. gasoline prices could also rise as refineries adjust production. Europe would be particularly vulnerable to the impact of a U.S. export ban, as oil shipments between Russia and the Middle East remain disrupted. On September 22, 2026, in Carson, California, an American flag flew outside the Marathon Oil refinery in Los Angeles as vehicles drove across the 405 Freeway overpass. US President Trump stated that the White House is still considering a diesel export ban amid increasing political pressure to address rising fuel prices and the upcoming midterm elections. Speaking to Fox News on Sunday while attending the Presidents Cup golf tournament in Illinois, Trump said, "We're thinking about this very seriously." He added, "This move often leads to a small increase in gasoline prices, so we're carefully evaluating it, and we might implement this policy." With diesel retail prices climbing to record highs, Trump has expressed support for an export ban. Earlier this month, he stated that the government would soon decide whether to implement a ban. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright revealed that the White House is considering export restrictions rather than a blanket ban. Politico reported last week that the Trump administration is drafting a plan to implement a 90-day diesel export ban. The proposed comprehensive ban has already drawn opposition from the US energy industry, and analysts warn that the policy could backfire and exacerbate the global fuel crisis. Affected by the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, key oil and fuel trade routes have been disrupted, causing diesel prices to surge. According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average price of diesel in the US last Friday was approximately $6.50 per gallon, a significant year-on-year increase, slightly lower than the record high of $6.53 set on September 22. Morgan Stanley commodity strategists stated that after the decline in oil exports from Russia and the Middle East, the US has become an important source of marginal global diesel supply; while US export restrictions may lower domestic diesel prices in the short term, downstream markets may experience negative ripple effects. " Not only will global diesel prices rise, but adjustments in refinery utilization rates will also have a feedback effect, pushing up domestic gasoline prices in the United States," Morgan Stanley strategists wrote in a research report released on Thursday. Benedict George, head of European refined product pricing at Argus Media, said that if the United States implements some form of diesel export restriction, European diesel prices and the premium of diesel relative to crude oil could rise to unprecedented highs. He pointed out that in the past two months, the United States has supplied about half of Europe's diesel import demand. George stated, "It must be clear that no relevant measures have been introduced at present; even if there are policy ideas, there is huge uncertainty as to whether they will be implemented and what the specific terms will be." George also said that after communicating with European oil traders, he found that most traders doubted that the United States would ultimately implement diesel export restrictions, because such a policy would be too costly for American oil companies. Domestically in the United States, the soaring diesel prices have added a heavy economic burden to farmers, agricultural workers, drivers, and ordinary families, especially now, just before the November midterm elections. The American Petroleum Institute (API), a lobbying group for the oil industry, immediately opposed the plan after Trump initially expressed support for the export ban last week. API CEO Mike Sommers stated in a statement, "Restricting U.S. energy exports will only exacerbate the problem, increase pressure on refining, and ultimately harm consumers." He added, "The solution is to increase supply and improve market resilience, not to introduce new restrictions that further worsen an already difficult situation." Trump had previously urged Ukrainian President Zelensky to stop attacking Russian refineries. He stated that such attacks are "damaging the interests of the world," with continued fuel supply disruptions driving up U.S. diesel prices. Ukraine fears further Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure, having previously considered Russian refineries as legitimate targets for military strikes. George of Argus stated that Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have added a new variable to the global supply shortage problem, making diesel "the biggest problem facing the global oil system"; previously, diesel was just one of several major market risks. How will the global diesel supply shortage evolve? When asked how long the current global diesel shortage might last, George stated that market uncertainty is extremely high, and some traders have given up on predicting market trends. George said, "A trader recently told me that he no longer bothers predicting the market; it feels like a waste of time. Nobody knows what will happen next." "We can't be sure if the US will introduce any restrictions. But everyone is only discussing short-term policies, lasting at most two to three months… meaning that even if the US implements export restrictions, there will be a corresponding time limit." "But no one can predict the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict; really, nobody can be certain. So far, there is no solution to resolve this conflict, and the near-semi-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz also remains uncertain."