On Wednesday (September 30, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,180.22 per ounce. Gold prices rebounded on Tuesday from a more than seven-week low hit in the previous session as investors prepared for economic data that could provide clues about the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle. Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday, hitting a near one-month low, as investors focused on signs that Middle Eastern oil exports were recovering, while Trump stated that he had not made any conditions to Iran to end the war.

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26% to close at 51,349.92; the S&P 500 fell 0.17% to close at 7,670.84; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.08% to close at 26,797.54. Dragged down by rising Treasury yields, the market awaited inflation and employment data, while investors assessed comments from Federal Reserve officials to gauge interest rate direction. Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 30-year yield hitting 5.6206%, its highest level since June 2002, and the benchmark 10-year yield rising to 5.293%, its highest level since June 2007. However, as Treasury yields retreated from their intraday highs, signs of a recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports pushed oil prices down, and New York Fed President Williams stated that the Fed still had time to weigh data before deciding when to raise interest rates again, short-term Treasury yields fell, narrowing the losses in U.S. stocks. The CME Group's FedWatch tool showed that the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's October meeting had fallen to 51.5%, after earlier approaching 70%. Rising oil and diesel prices exacerbated inflation concerns and pushed up Treasury yields. Fed officials also indicated that further rate hikes might be necessary if price pressures do not ease after a 25 basis point increase. This week will see the release of the PCE price index, labor market data, and Friday's non-farm payroll report. Ingalls & Snyder strategist Tim Ghriskey stated that Wednesday's PCE data is crucial, as consumers face negative factors such as rising interest rates and gasoline prices, potentially leading to a sell-off in stocks, at least in consumer stocks. Regarding consumer confidence, the JOLTS report showed that job openings fell by 256,000 to 7.079 million in August, below the forecast of 7.225 million. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to a near 12.5-year low in September, as the Iran war and rising interest rates led households to expect worsening business and labor market conditions over the next six months. Anthropic's IPO prospectus reveals rapid growth but widening losses over the past year, and its search for a valuation exceeding $2 trillion could provide Wall Street with a new benchmark for measuring AI leaders. Meta rose 3.3% after OpenAI launched "dots," an intelligent agent that runs 24/7 in the background and can autonomously perform tasks across applications, seen as a competitor to Meta's newly launched "Muse."

Gold Market

Spot gold rose 1.63% on Tuesday to settle at $4,181.87 an ounce, rebounding from a more than seven-week low hit in the previous session, but remained below the 100-day moving average as concerns about inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy. Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, stated that the day's price action was merely a correction of Monday's losses, and gold still faces some significant headwinds. Grant also noted that rising market expectations for further Fed rate hikes continue to support the dollar, and high yields may limit upside potential. The market will continue to focus on Wednesday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data and Friday's employment data. The dollar rose, approaching multi-month highs, supported by oil price volatility and the recent rapid rise in US Treasury yields. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently sees a 68% probability of a Fed rate hike in October and a 95% probability in December. Investors are awaiting key economic data, including Wednesday's ADP employment and PCE data, and Friday's non-farm payroll data. Spot silver rose 1.37% to close at $61.44 per ounce.

oil market

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, with WTI crude down 4.66% to settle at $88.94 a barrel and Brent crude down 2.99% to settle at $95.61 a barrel; both indices hit near one-month lows. Investors are focused on signs that Middle Eastern oil exports are recovering, but prices are still poised to rise this month as the market remains concerned about supply disruptions during the US-Israel war in Iraq. Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said that reports of increased oil throughput on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline put pressure on crude oil futures that morning. Negotiations between the US and Iran continued, and although their positions appeared far apart, both sides were seeking ways to exit the conflict. The more oil flowing out of the Middle East, the less bargaining power Iran had. According to trade sources and shipping data, Saudi Arabia has resumed loading tankers from the Red Sea port of Yanbu after the East-West pipeline resumed operation, improving the outlook for Middle Eastern oil exports. US President Trump stated that he had not made any conditions to Iran to end the war and denied reports that Iran, citing US officials, was willing to ease sanctions and unfreeze funds in exchange for "concrete" action on Iran's nuclear program. European diesel futures fell slightly on Tuesday, while US diesel futures rose 2.6%. Sources said the White House had urged the EU to use its emergency diesel reserves to lower global prices, and the Trump administration stated that several EU member states had not released the promised amount of oil and refined products from their reserves. According to two people familiar with the discussions, Trump is considering easing regulations to allow wider sales of red-dyed diesel as one of the measures to curb soaring prices. The two sources indicated that this move could exempt some buyers from federal fuel taxes, and the proposal has become a major alternative to the diesel export ban.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar index rose 0.21% on Tuesday to close at 101.39, its highest level since July 28, as investors prepared for economic data that could provide clues about the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle, and U.S. Treasury yields hovered near multi-year highs; the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed above 5% after hitting its highest level since June 2007. Investors were also closely watching the prospect of potential oil supply disruptions caused by conflicts in the Middle East. The dollar rose to a 16-month high against the euro and Swiss franc on Tuesday, and also remained near multi-month highs against other major currencies. Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp, said that at present, data points can only be analyzed one by one, and he is focusing on employment and inflation data to determine whether the hawkish stance previously hinted at by the current Federal Reserve Board is justified. Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said that widening interest rate differentials are dominating the foreign exchange market, driving the dollar higher against all major currencies and catching forecasters off guard. Saudi Arabia has restarted crude oil loading operations at its Red Sea port of Yanbu after resuming operations of the East-West oil pipeline, improving the outlook for Middle Eastern crude oil exports, according to trade sources and shipping data. Investors are awaiting the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, to be released on Wednesday, a data closely watched by the Federal Reserve, followed by the September non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Markets are also closely watching speeches by Federal Reserve officials. New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that the Fed has time to weigh relevant data before deciding when to raise rates again, while Fed Governor Barr reiterated his defense of further rate hikes on Tuesday. Influenced by these comments, traders appear to have lowered their expectations for a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting, with the probability of a rate hike in the futures market falling from 70% the previous day to nearly 52%. The Reserve Bank of Australia unanimously decided on Tuesday to raise the cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.60%, citing excessive inflation and indicating it is prepared to raise rates further if necessary. The Australian dollar fell to its lowest point in nearly two months, while the yen remained at 157.30 yen against the US dollar, as markets weighed recent warnings of possible coordinated intervention from Tokyo and Washington.

International News

Trump Says He Signed AI Agreement with Tech Giants and Is Considering Forming a Committee US President Donald Trump said he and CEOs of tech companies signed an "ethically binding" agreement on artificial intelligence. He said he is considering forming a committee of about 10 people to oversee AI, saying he has seen an "amazing" capacity for self-regulation in the AI industry. OPEC Likely to Maintain November Oil Quotas The OPEC+ member countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are likely to maintain their November oil production quotas. Representatives expect the organization to approve the current roadmap at its meeting on Sunday. Despite a slight recovery in oil flows, millions of barrels of capacity in the Middle East remain shut down; meanwhile, OPEC+ members face capacity constraints due to insufficient investment, sanctions, and equipment shutdowns. The organization's 2027 policy will depend on the capacity assessment to be completed this week. Netanyahu Says Enemies May Launch Attacks Before Election Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement from an Israeli air force base on the 29th that there are indications that "enemies may launch attacks against Israel before the October 27th Israeli elections." Netanyahu did not elaborate on the specifics of the attacks. In his statement, he warned, "Don't mess with us; Israel's tentacles can reach you at any time." Netanyahu stated that Israel is still conducting military operations on multiple fronts, including the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. He also reported that the Israeli military has killed over 100 "terrorists" in the Gaza Strip in recent weeks. The Times of Israel reported that, with the Israeli elections approaching, Netanyahu has recently been announcing the results of targeted killings before the Israel Defense Forces officially announce them. (Xinhua) The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claims there are no US warships in the Persian Gulf. According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency on the 29th, Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesman Mohbi stated that there are no US warships in the Persian Gulf. Currently, US warships have withdrawn to at least 500 kilometers from the entrance to the Persian Gulf. (Xinhua) Oman considers purchasing two oil tankers for floating oil storage; Gulf oil-producing countries seek alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz. Oman plans to more than double the oil storage capacity of a port outside the Strait of Hormuz to leverage its strategic location. Middle Eastern energy producers are currently seeking alternatives to bypass this highly sensitive shipping lane. Ashraf Al Mamari, CEO of Oman's state-owned energy company OQ SAOC, stated in an interview that the company is evaluating the purchase of two supertankers and leasing them for use as floating storage facilities at the port of Duqm. The company also plans to increase its onshore crude oil storage capacity from the current approximately 5 million barrels to 10 million barrels within three years. Sources: Limited Progress in US-Iran Talks, Neither Side Willing to Concession According to AXIOS, citing three sources familiar with the negotiations, Qatari mediators attempted to push for a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran this week, but progress was minimal, with neither side willing to compromise. This stalemate further reinforces the assessment by both the US and Iran that a renewed military conflict is possible. US officials believe that Trump may order a resumption of large-scale military operations after the midterm elections. Two sources stated that Qatari officials will continue to mediate, but are increasingly frustrated with both the US and Iran. One source indicated that Monday's talks yielded no significant progress and have reached a stalemate; Iran has made some demands unacceptable to the US, while the US believes it holds the upper hand and sees no need to compromise. Other mediators, including those from Pakistan and Egypt, have also urged Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program. However, another source familiar with the matter said that Iran has indicated it will only consider making concessions if the United States agrees to reinstate the memorandum of understanding signed in June. Mediators are pushing for renewed talks between the US and Iran; a draft interim agreement proposes lifting the blockade in exchange for access to the Strait of Hormuz . The Financial Times reports that mediators are pushing for a renewed agreement between the US and Iran. Two officials briefed on the negotiations said that after mediators mediated between US and Iranian officials on Monday, a revised draft interim agreement is expected to be submitted to Iran on Tuesday. Under the draft, Iran would allow free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and the US would correspondingly lift the blockade on Iranian ports. Mediators hope this interim arrangement will encourage both sides to resume negotiations on a final solution to end the war. One official said that progress has been made, but the parties are still haggling over the order of implementation for subsequent phases. These follow-up measures may include the US reinstating oil waivers, allowing Iran to sell oil, enabling Tehran to access some of its frozen overseas assets, and arrangements for Iran's nuclear program, including allowing IAEA inspectors to return to Iran.

Domestic News

Chinese scientists have developed a new single-beam multidimensional optical storage technology. On September 29, it was learned from the University of Shanghai for Science and Technology that a research team from the university has independently developed a single-beam multidimensional optical storage technology, providing a new path for massive data storage and efficient read/write operations, with broad application prospects. The relevant findings were published online on the 29th in the international academic journal *Nature Photonics*. (Xinhua News Agency) The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) stated that the service sector contributed 66.1% to economic growth in the first half of this year. On the 29th , the NDRC held a special press conference to introduce the relevant situation regarding the expansion and quality improvement of the service sector. Relevant officials stated that in the first half of this year, the service sector contributed 66.1% to economic growth, an increase of 5.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year; since April, the service sector business activity expectation index has remained above 55% for five consecutive months, indicating a relatively high level of prosperity. The development of the service sector shows a positive trend of "expected policies, confident markets, resilient consumption, and vibrant openness." (CCTV News)