Two representatives told the media that OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are likely to maintain their November crude oil production quotas at their weekend meeting. The organization has nominally completed its 2023 production cut rollback, but conflict has limited actual output. The OPEC+ statement indicates October 4th (Sunday) as the date for the next meeting. This anticipated postponement follows a similar decision earlier this month, when seven core members agreed on September 6th to maintain the September required production levels into October.

OPEC+ is expected to maintain its November quotas, and the existing roadmap will be approved at Sunday's meeting.

According to two representatives, OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are likely to maintain their November crude oil production quotas at their weekend meeting. The organization, which has nominally completed its 2023 production cut rollback, is likely to approve the existing roadmap and maintain its monthly targets. The OPEC+ statement indicates October 4th (Sunday) as the date for the next meeting. This postponement is expected to continue the decision made on September 6th, when the seven core members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—agreed at a virtual meeting to maintain the September required production levels into October.

Production had increased in previous months, but a baseline review in 2027 led to a pause in the fourth quarter.

This pause comes after months of increased production. The seven core oil-producing countries increased their quotas by approximately 800,000 barrels per day from April to July, with the most recent monthly increase being around 190,000 barrels per day, as part of a phased return of production cuts in 2023. Reports indicate that the organization first needs to review its members' oil production capacity to set a 2027 production baseline, which will form the basis for future quotas; this debate may take place later in 2026. Sources suggest that OPEC+ may therefore pause production increases in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, reports indicate that the UAE has left the organization, and Iraq has expressed a desire for a higher quota.

The conflict in Iran has resulted in actual production falling far short of official targets, limiting the impact of quotas.

However, the headline targets only tell part of the story. The conflict in Iran has prevented Middle Eastern countries from actually increasing production, and according to Energy Connects, several members' actual output remains far below official targets. One analyst stated that OPEC+ currently has very limited influence on the physical oil market. Crude oil exports from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have begun to recover, with Kpler data showing a rebound to approximately 16 million barrels per day in September, the highest since the conflict began at the end of February. This data suggests that despite the existence of quota targets, actual supply flows are constrained by the conflict, weakening the influence of quotas.

Markets are paying close attention to the wording of the statement and the 2027 baseline review.

The weekend's decision could therefore be interpreted as a wait-and-see approach, with the organization awaiting clarity on the conflict and production capacity. Attention may shift to the organization's wording regarding compliance statements, the timing of further pullbacks, and a review of its capacity to support 2027 quotas. The rollover itself is unlikely to significantly drive crude oil prices, as delegates have already signaled the outcome; the larger price driver remains the physical flow of Middle Eastern oil. With the Iranian conflict pushing actual production far below quota targets, the importance of quota targets has diminished, and any shift in tone regarding the 2027 baseline or signals of a return to increased production carries more weight than the decision itself. A risk to watch is a stalled diplomatic track, which would leave supply disruptions priced in, regardless of OPEC+'s decision.

Editor's Summary

OPEC+'s expectation of maintaining its November quotas reflects a cautious strategy amid conflict-bound production constraints. While the nominal pullback is complete, capacity reviews and geopolitical risks are dominating decision-making, and the pace of physical supply recovery is more influential on market balance than paper targets. Price drivers remain focused on the physical flow of Middle Eastern exports and diplomatic progress, rather than simple quota adjustments.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why is OPEC+ expected to maintain its November production quotas? A: According to representatives, core members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia are inclined to approve the existing roadmap, continuing the practice of maintaining production levels until October as agreed on September 6th. Nominally, the 2023 production cuts have been fully reversed, but the conflict has resulted in actual production being far below target, and a review of capacity is needed to set a 2027 baseline. Therefore, production increases may be suspended in the fourth quarter. Q: What was the previous increase in production? Why is it suspended now? A: From April to July, the seven core countries cumulatively increased their quotas by approximately 800,000 barrels per day, a monthly increase of approximately 190,000 barrels per day. The suspension stems from the need to assess members' actual production capacity to determine the 2027 baseline. Related discussions may be postponed until later in 2026, while the conflict limits implementation capacity. Q: How does the Iranian conflict affect actual production and exports? A: The conflict has prevented Middle Eastern countries from fully implementing production increases, resulting in actual production falling below official targets. Kpler data shows that Middle Eastern crude oil exports rebounded to approximately 16-16.3 million barrels per day in September, the highest since the start of the conflict, but still below pre-war levels, limiting the impact of quotas on the physical market. Q: What are the developments regarding quotas between the UAE and Iraq? A: Reports indicate the UAE has left the organization, while Iraq seeks a higher quota. These disagreements increase the complexity of future baseline reviews and affect overall production policy coordination. Q: How much will the weekend meeting's outcome affect oil prices? What should the market focus on? A: Since the outcome was already known, the rollover itself has a limited impact on prices. Brent crude has recently been above $100 per barrel. The bigger drivers are the recovery of physical flows and diplomatic progress. Attention should be paid to the wording of the statement, compliance status, the timing of further pullbacks, and signals from the 2027 capacity review, as these have a longer-term impact than the quota decision itself.