OPEC+ is expected to maintain its oil production quotas unchanged.
2026-10-01 01:08:15
According to an anonymous industry source familiar with the matter, the OPEC+ core oil-producing countries team will finalize a decision at its regular policy meeting this weekend to maintain the current crude oil production quotas until November 2026, without making any upward or downward adjustments, in order to cope with the current volatile global oil market situation. 
The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, particularly the turmoil in Iran, has severely impacted the efficiency and security of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil shipping route, completely disrupting the regional oil supply and demand dynamics. Since the outbreak of the Iranian conflict and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, major Gulf oil-producing countries within the OPEC+ alliance have experienced significant contractions in oil production capacity and maritime export shipments, resulting in a substantial decline in overall oil supply capacity. At the OPEC+ monthly meeting in early September 2026, the seven core members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—reached an agreement to continue their current production policies, fully implementing the official production quotas set for September 2026 into October without any temporary adjustments. Previously, these countries had gradually withdrawn from the production cut plan, completely canceling the joint crude oil production reduction measures implemented since 2023, totaling 1.65 million barrels per day, and gradually restoring production capacity. Throughout 2026, OPEC+ steadily increased its nominal production quotas, attempting to stabilize global oil supply by raising production capacity. However, constrained by unforeseen factors such as ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflicts and shipping disruptions, the actual amount of crude oil supplied to the global market by member countries consistently exceeded the theoretical output of their allocated quotas, significantly diminishing the policy's effectiveness. Since March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has experienced frequent shipping disruptions and restrictions, leaving a large amount of crude oil shipping capacity stranded in the Persian Gulf region, causing structural tension in the global crude oil supply chain. Against this backdrop, the actual crude oil production of several major Gulf oil-producing countries remained below their OPEC+ quotas, rendering the production quota mechanism, originally intended to regulate the market, largely ineffective and failing to accurately reflect the current market supply situation. The OPEC+ alliance, primarily led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has proactively adjusted its focus for the year, temporarily shelving short-term quota adjustments and fully committing to the discussion and planning of crude oil production quotas for 2027. The energy alliance plans to comprehensively review the market supply and demand structure and finalize the official production baseline for 2027, laying the foundation for future medium- and long-term production cuts and increases. Recent production data shows a divergent trend in global crude oil output. The escalating threat of Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea has hampered Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports and forced a contraction in production capacity, directly dragging down overall OPEC crude oil production slightly in August. However, excluding Saudi Arabia, core OPEC+ oil-producing countries saw steady production growth that month, offsetting some of the production shortfall. Previously released industry survey data confirms this trend; the ongoing Red Sea shipping security crisis continues to disrupt Saudi Arabia's crude oil export system, forcing the country to reduce its external supply, becoming a core factor dragging down overall OPEC monthly production. According to authoritative data from OPEC's September 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the total daily crude oil production of the OPEC+ alliance reached 38.05 million barrels in August 2026, an increase of 300,000 barrels per day compared to July, representing a slight month-on-month rebound and reflecting the recovery of core oil-producing countries' production capacity. However, compared to industry levels before the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts, there is currently a significant shortfall in OPEC+'s overall oil supply capacity. Affected by continued disruptions to key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, almost all Gulf OPEC members have been unable to meet their established production quotas. Currently, the alliance's overall daily crude oil production is about 5 million barrels lower than pre-war levels, significantly compressing the global crude oil supply buffer and becoming one of the core factors contributing to the recent sustained rise in international oil prices.
The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, particularly the turmoil in Iran, has severely impacted the efficiency and security of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil shipping route, completely disrupting the regional oil supply and demand dynamics. Since the outbreak of the Iranian conflict and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, major Gulf oil-producing countries within the OPEC+ alliance have experienced significant contractions in oil production capacity and maritime export shipments, resulting in a substantial decline in overall oil supply capacity. At the OPEC+ monthly meeting in early September 2026, the seven core members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—reached an agreement to continue their current production policies, fully implementing the official production quotas set for September 2026 into October without any temporary adjustments. Previously, these countries had gradually withdrawn from the production cut plan, completely canceling the joint crude oil production reduction measures implemented since 2023, totaling 1.65 million barrels per day, and gradually restoring production capacity. Throughout 2026, OPEC+ steadily increased its nominal production quotas, attempting to stabilize global oil supply by raising production capacity. However, constrained by unforeseen factors such as ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflicts and shipping disruptions, the actual amount of crude oil supplied to the global market by member countries consistently exceeded the theoretical output of their allocated quotas, significantly diminishing the policy's effectiveness. Since March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has experienced frequent shipping disruptions and restrictions, leaving a large amount of crude oil shipping capacity stranded in the Persian Gulf region, causing structural tension in the global crude oil supply chain. Against this backdrop, the actual crude oil production of several major Gulf oil-producing countries remained below their OPEC+ quotas, rendering the production quota mechanism, originally intended to regulate the market, largely ineffective and failing to accurately reflect the current market supply situation. The OPEC+ alliance, primarily led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has proactively adjusted its focus for the year, temporarily shelving short-term quota adjustments and fully committing to the discussion and planning of crude oil production quotas for 2027. The energy alliance plans to comprehensively review the market supply and demand structure and finalize the official production baseline for 2027, laying the foundation for future medium- and long-term production cuts and increases. Recent production data shows a divergent trend in global crude oil output. The escalating threat of Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea has hampered Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports and forced a contraction in production capacity, directly dragging down overall OPEC crude oil production slightly in August. However, excluding Saudi Arabia, core OPEC+ oil-producing countries saw steady production growth that month, offsetting some of the production shortfall. Previously released industry survey data confirms this trend; the ongoing Red Sea shipping security crisis continues to disrupt Saudi Arabia's crude oil export system, forcing the country to reduce its external supply, becoming a core factor dragging down overall OPEC monthly production. According to authoritative data from OPEC's September 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the total daily crude oil production of the OPEC+ alliance reached 38.05 million barrels in August 2026, an increase of 300,000 barrels per day compared to July, representing a slight month-on-month rebound and reflecting the recovery of core oil-producing countries' production capacity. However, compared to industry levels before the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts, there is currently a significant shortfall in OPEC+'s overall oil supply capacity. Affected by continued disruptions to key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, almost all Gulf OPEC members have been unable to meet their established production quotas. Currently, the alliance's overall daily crude oil production is about 5 million barrels lower than pre-war levels, significantly compressing the global crude oil supply buffer and becoming one of the core factors contributing to the recent sustained rise in international oil prices.
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