The USD/CAD pair traded around 1.4260 in Asian trading on Tuesday, while the US dollar index remained strong around 102.5. Recent pronouncements from Federal Reserve officials, including Cleveland Fed President Hammarck's statement that a smaller, relatively quick adjustment of interest rates, given the circumstances, is preferable to a forced, large correction later, signaled a hawkish stance. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently expects a 79.5% probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October, but the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December has risen to 70.3%. The US September CPI data, to be released on Wednesday, will be a key variable. The market generally expects overall CPI to rise to 3.6% to 3.7% year-on-year, with core inflation potentially rising from 2.4% to 2.5% year-on-year. Stronger-than-expected data could reignite discussions about an October rate hike, providing new upward momentum for the dollar. The Canadian dollar continues to face multiple pressures. Canadian employment data for September showed a stronger-than-expected contraction, marking the second consecutive month of large-scale job losses. Market expectations for a Bank of Canada rate hike in October have fallen from 40% to 27%. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem has previously stated that monetary policy decisions will be based on Canada's domestic economic conditions, rather than following the Federal Reserve's lead. Against the backdrop of weak domestic economic momentum and declining manufacturing and retail trade, the Bank of Canada is expected to remain cautious, with the US-Canada policy interest rate differential continuing to suppress the Canadian dollar's performance. Oil price movements are a crucial variable affecting the USD/CAD exchange rate. As an energy exporter, the Canadian dollar typically maintains a high positive correlation with oil prices. WTI crude oil closed up 2.06% at $93.74 per barrel on Monday, while Brent crude rose 1.84% to $106.65 per barrel, briefly breaking through $107 during the session. Continued geopolitical risks are providing a significant risk premium for oil prices. However, Russian and American companies have begun negotiations on diesel supply, with Russia expecting to export 3 to 3.5 million tons of diesel per month by the end of the year. This anticipated supply recovery has limited further upside potential for oil prices. This two-way tug-of-war has limited the support oil prices provide for the Canadian dollar, failing to effectively prevent the USD/CAD pair from maintaining its high levels. From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD daily chart maintains an uptrend, with the exchange rate steadily trading above the 100-day moving average, and the upward trend over the past four weeks remains intact. The RSI is in the neutral-to-strong zone, not yet reaching extreme overbought levels, indicating solid but not excessive upward momentum. The MACD histogram has narrowed, suggesting weakening bullish momentum and a short-term need for consolidation at higher levels. The area around 1.4300 forms a key psychological level and technical resistance. Only if the exchange rate continues to hold above this level can the continuation of the bullish structure be confirmed, opening up further upside potential, with a target of 1.4310 to 1.4335. On the 4-hour chart, the exchange rate is fluctuating between 1.4260 and 1.4290, with short-term moving averages intertwined, making the direction unclear. The 1.4240-1.4250 area is a key short-term support level, corresponding to the midpoint of the recent trading range and the dynamic support of the 20-day EMA. A decisive break below this level would likely lead to a test of the 1.4200 psychological level; if 1.4200 also falls, the pullback could extend further to the 1.4150 area. Editor's Summary: The USD/CAD pair is currently driven by both a strong US dollar and a weak Canadian dollar. Technically, the bullish structure remains intact, with the 1.4300 level being a key short-term breakout point. This week's US CPI data will determine the short-term direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path—if inflation data is stronger than expected, the US dollar may strengthen further, and the exchange rate could break through 1.4300 to open up further upside potential; if the data is weaker, the US dollar may face profit-taking pressure, and the exchange rate may retrace to the 1.4240-1.4200 support area. Furthermore, speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on Friday, as well as developments in the Middle East and oil price fluctuations, will continue to influence the short-term balance. Until major support levels are effectively broken, the current technical structure should focus on finding support during pullbacks rather than directly judging a trend reversal.