On Monday (October 19, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold rose, trading around $4,178 per ounce, as US inflation data continued to exceed expectations, and traders were weighing the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year. US crude oil traded around $98.15 per barrel, after hitting a one-month high of $99.34 per barrel on Friday. Investors assessed how much diesel Russia could supply to the global market, while also worrying about escalating tensions in the Middle East. Iran's foreign minister reiterated that it would not yield to threats, and Iran has also developed contingency plans for possible new "adventurous actions."

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 falling 1.09% to 7,659.44, the Nasdaq down 2.15% to 26,140.03, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.34% to 52,002.41. AI-related technology stocks, including CoreWeave and Broadcom, came under renewed pressure, while soaring oil prices also unsettled traders ahead of the weekend. The Nasdaq extended its losses from earlier in the week, as markets worried that heavily indebted AI infrastructure companies might not be able to generate profits and repay debts in time, especially given the anticipated rise in borrowing costs. CoreWeave, backed by Nvidia, plunged 12%, bringing its cumulative decline over the past five trading days to approximately 25%. Its bonds also saw a heavy sell-off this week, pushing yields above 15%. Broadcom fell 4.5%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 3.8%, marking its eighth consecutive day of decline, its longest losing streak since 2008. Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at Bank of America Wealth Management, said there is some panic in the market, and high oil prices tend to depress stock price-to-earnings ratios, so investors will remain cautious rather than take on more risk before the weekend. In addition to concerns about AI funding, sources said some existing and potential investors in Anthropic are considering lowering their valuation for the company's upcoming IPO. Funds shifted from tech stocks to other sectors, with six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rising, led by the energy sector at 2.47%, followed by utilities at 1.4%; total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 18.6 billion shares, compared with a 20-day average of 17.7 billion shares. Last week's higher-than-expected consumer and producer inflation data indicate that price pressures are spreading from energy commodities to other sectors; Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh expressed optimism about the resilience of the U.S. economy last Friday, saying he was surprised that the global economy could "hold on" despite the ongoing energy shock and tightening anti-inflationary monetary policies. Market expectations are rising that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October, with Barclays now predicting that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in December and January respectively.

Gold Market

Gold prices were largely unchanged on Friday, closing at $4,164.05 per ounce, but fell 0.72% for the week as U.S. inflation data continued to exceed expectations, and traders were weighing the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year. Bart Melek, global head of commodities strategy at TD Securities, said gold prices are currently trading within a range, leaning towards the lower end of the support range, mainly due to significant uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's next move. Fed Chairman Warsh expressed optimism about the strong US economy but offered no clues about the interest rate path. Thursday's data showed US producer prices rose at their fastest pace in four and a half years in September, while Wednesday's consumer price report showed a faster rate increase in September. Chicago Fed President Goolsby called the data "disappointing," and Cleveland Fed President Hamack stated that the Fed might need to raise rates more sharply if public inflation expectations deteriorate significantly. The CME FedWatch tool shows traders generally expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in October and see a 90% chance of a rate hike in December. Although gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, rising interest rates tend to diminish the appeal of this non-yielding asset. Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said gold prices may decline slightly for the remainder of the year as the Fed continues to raise rates and concerns about the end of the AI boom prove to be temporary.

oil market

Oil prices rose on Friday, with WTI crude up 1.53% to settle at $99.04 a barrel and Brent crude up 3.77% to settle at $109.66 a barrel, having touched a five-month high of $109.97 a barrel earlier in the session, as markets worried that escalating tensions in the Middle East could further tighten supply, while investors assessed how much diesel Russia could supply to the global market. A report by Energy Aspects states that rumors of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure fueled escalation concerns, causing WTI and Brent crude oil prices to reverse earlier losses. Israeli media reported that Western intelligence agencies detected unusual military movements, suggesting Iran might be preparing a preemptive strike, which, while unconfirmed, reinforced the view that the risk of escalation would support futures prices. The Saudi-led coalition stated it had intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile aimed at the Red Sea city of Yanbu, a port crucial for Saudi Arabia to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and ensure a continuous flow of oil to international markets. Consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group stated that initial reports indicated no damage to Yanbu's infrastructure. Supply concerns have intensified as attacks around the Strait of Hormuz have surged over the past 10 days; Iran has stated it is escalating its attacks in response to the US blockade of its ports and stricter sanctions imposed last month. Kpler analysts stated that the escalating Iranian attacks have caused a sharp drop in oil flows in the Gulf region, and without a comprehensive political agreement, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to recover at a slower and more uneven pace. On the Russian side, Ukraine attacked a Russian oil refinery last Thursday after Zelenskyy announced that Kyiv would no longer abide by the ceasefire agreement announced by Trump concerning energy facilities. Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, stated that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the uncertainty surrounding Russia's actual diesel supply to the market are factors that continue to drive traders to remain buy. To increase supply, the International Energy Agency agreed last Thursday to release more than 20 million barrels of fuel into the market; the U.S. Department of Energy announced last Friday that the U.S. has also issued a tender to allocate up to 17 million barrels of crude oil from its strategic petroleum reserve in exchange for [the release of fuel].

Foreign exchange market

The dollar index fell 0.21% on Friday to close at 101.76, as market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike weakened and concerns lingered about a stock market sell-off triggered by artificial intelligence. Comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting a lack of urgency to further tighten policy helped stabilize U.S. Treasury yields and weakened support for the dollar. Last week, AI stocks plummeted, with selling pressure spreading to parts of the credit market as investors worried that data center operators might not be able to generate profits in time to repay debt. Matt Weller, global head of markets research at StoneX, said the most interesting point was the strong correlation between the dollar and AI trading. Typically, a sell-off in tech stocks should boost the dollar with safe-haven buying, but last week, some funds flowed into bonds, and the dollar actually fell. The CME FedWatch tool showed that the market expects an 83% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged later in October, up from 49% a month ago. Fed Chairman Warsh did not provide clues about future interest rate decisions at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok last Friday, saying he would not "predict the outcome of the meeting." John Willis, macro strategist for the Americas at BNY Mellon, said there are not enough people within the committee, especially among the Fed governors, to support an October rate hike, and whether a rate hike will occur in December remains undecided, with many things still possible between then and now. The dollar fell against the euro and yen for the first time in over a month, reflecting weakening market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike and lingering concerns about a potential stock market sell-off triggered by artificial intelligence. French fiscal risks remained a concern after the risk premium on French government bonds surged in early October; investors anticipated that Trump would avoid further escalation in the Middle East or Ukraine, as broader conflict could push up inflation and damage his pre-election support. The dollar fell 0.08% to 158.11 yen, as recent oil price increases boosted the dollar while weighing on energy-importing currencies such as the euro and yen. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Friday that the risk of core inflation exceeding the central bank's 2% target remains. The British pound and the Swiss franc led the gains among major currencies against the US dollar. The Swiss franc was boosted by safe-haven demand, and the market also expected that even if interest rates were to fall further, the Swiss National Bank was unlikely to lower its current policy rate from zero to negative territory. The pound rose 0.31% to $1.3314, up 0.63% for the week. The US dollar fell 0.25% against the Swiss franc to 0.8246, down 0.67% for the week.

International News

Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran Will Not Bow to Threats; Seven-Day Proposal for Reopening the Strait of Hormuz Remains Valid The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that Iran will never bow to threats and is more capable of self-defense than ever before. He added that Iran is prepared to cooperate as long as diplomatic channels are dignified, honorable, and guarantee the rights of the Iranian people. He stated that Iran's conditions are fully clear and have been submitted to the United States in the form of a "seven-day proposal." The US has offered its own opinions, and Iran is still responding. Tehran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains valid: if the US complies with Iran's conditions, the strait can be opened within six days, with negotiations resuming on the seventh day. US Midterm Elections Scheduled for November 3; Congressional Positions and Many State Offices to be Held The US midterm elections will be held on November 3. Democrats and Republicans will compete for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. In addition to congressional elections, several US states will also elect governors, state legislators, and some local officials. Vance: Gasoline Prices Expected to Fall After Conflict, Iran Must Commit Not to Rebuild Nuclear Program US Vice President Vance stated that gasoline prices will fall after the conflict ends, as the US military will ensure the smooth passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. He also warned that if Iran is allowed to control shipping through the strait, global energy supplies will be restricted, and gasoline prices will rise accordingly. Vance stated that, to some extent, Washington has achieved a decisive victory over Iran; however, the conflict cannot be considered over until Tehran makes a firm commitment to not rebuild its nuclear program. Trump Signs Executive Order Waiving Some Sanctions and Tariff Restrictions An executive order released by the White House shows that Trump announced waivers for some sanctions, restrictions, and tariffs stipulated in the Graham Act. Trump stated that he has submitted certification to Congress to demonstrate that issuing the waivers is in the national interest of the United States. The executive order was released by the White House, and details regarding the specific scope and applicable entities of the waivers have not yet been disclosed. Overall, this move involves the easing of specific sanctions and trade restrictions, and the subsequent implementation details still need to be observed. The market is focused on whether the waivers cover the energy and financial sectors, and on the response from Congress. Iran: Prepared Countermeasures for Potential New "Adventurous Acts" Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on the 18th that the Iranian armed forces have prepared countermeasures for any new "adventurous acts." Rezaei said on social media that the fanatical rhetoric and repeated threats spread by US and Israeli officials in recent days have not changed the reality on the battlefield. Faced with any possible new "adventurous acts," the Iranian armed forces have prepared countermeasures, the destructive power of which will far exceed that of the past. Iran's new operational plan will no longer follow the rules familiar to the enemy. (Xinhua) Large-Scale Protests and Hundreds Arrested in France On the 17th, demonstrations and protests took place in many parts of France, with violence occurring in some areas, and hundreds of people arrested. French Interior Minister Nunes said in an interview with BFM TV that evening that the number of protesters across France reached 550,000, including 110,000 in Paris, and preliminary statistics showed that about 400 people were arrested nationwide. According to the French General Confederation of Labour (CGT), the total number of protesters nationwide reached 800,000 that day. According to French media reports, the protests brought together farmers, climate activists, and students, with some labor unions also participating. Demands included fuel prices, cost of living, education, and public services. (Xinhua) Zelensky says Ukraine and the US could hold new round of talks as early as this week On the 17th local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine is willing to continue pushing for an end to the war through diplomatic channels involving the United States, and the two sides could hold a new round of meetings as early as this week. Zelensky said that Ukraine is open to the location and format of the talks—whether in Ukraine, a European country, or the United States; the number of participating parties is also not limited, and bilateral, trilateral, and even five-party talks are all welcome. He also stated that the core goal of the negotiations is to achieve peace, not to be bound by formalities. The probability of a Fed rate hike in October is 16.1%, and the probability of at least one more rate hike this year is 91.8%. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged by October is 83.9%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 16.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 8.2%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 77.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 14.5%.

Domestic News

The top five global humanoid robot revenue earners are all Chinese companies, with Shenzhen robot exports surging over 1200% in the first eight months. Recently, international consulting firm Frost & Sullivan released its "2026 Global Humanoid Robot Market Research Report." In the first half of this year, global humanoid robot sales reached 36,000 units, exceeding the 35,000 units for the entire year of 2025; market revenue reached $540 million. In terms of revenue, the top five global humanoid robot companies in the first half of this year were all Chinese, with two of them being Shenzhen companies. On the afternoon of the 16th, a high-level US delegation arrived at the "Robot Valley" in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, for an inspection. In the "Robot Valley," a complete industrial chain, from core components to complete machine manufacturing, from software algorithms to system integration, is highly concentrated. Liu Tuo, founder of Shenzhen Tuoji Technology, stated that prototyping in Silicon Valley takes two months because of the need to procure components globally; however, in Shenzhen, perhaps 90% of the components can be found in the "Robot Valley." The Shenzhen Robot Valley gathers over 200 companies in the robot industry chain, forming a supply chain from algorithm software, perception systems, and execution systems to core components. According to Shenzhen Customs data, in the first eight months of this year, Shenzhen's exports of various separately listed robots totaled 11.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2 times, with products sold to more than 120 countries and regions worldwide. (CCTV Finance) Two Important Press Conferences on National Economic Operation and Technological Innovation in Business to be Held Today Two important press conferences will be held today, focusing on the operation of the national economy and the promotion of technological innovation in business. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 AM on Monday, October 19th, where Mao Shengyong, spokesperson and deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, will introduce the operation of the national economy in the first three quarters of 2026 and answer questions from reporters. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 3:00 PM on Monday, October 19th, where Yuan Xiaoming, assistant minister of commerce, and relevant officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism will introduce the relevant situation on accelerating the promotion of technological innovation in business and answer questions from reporters. (CCTV News) Heads of Four Financial Regulatory Departments to Speak Out! The Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting opened today. The 2026 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting will be held from October 19th to 22nd in Beijing's Financial Street, with over 400 important guests from more than 40 countries and regions attending. The theme of this year's forum is "Openness, Cooperation, Inclusiveness – Building a New Ecosystem for Global Financial Development." The forum includes a main forum (including opening and closing ceremonies), parallel forums, thematic conferences, and supporting activities, with a planned 21 sessions across the main forum and parallel forums, and 3 thematic conferences. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, Ding Xiangqun, Director of the State Financial Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and Zhu Hexin, Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, will attend the 2026 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting and deliver keynote speeches. (CCTV News)