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2026-11-02 17:52:24
[Dollar's Movement Depends on Oil Prices and Midterm Elections; Institutions Predict Range-Bound Fluctuations] ⑴ ING stated that the dollar opened slightly lower this week, possibly driven by falling oil prices, which dropped 2% to 3% due to reports that US President Trump wanted to continue diplomatic efforts on the Iran issue. This reversed some investors' sentiment from last Friday, who were positioning themselves for a possible new round of attacks over the weekend. ⑵ The institution pointed out that this week's focus is on the US midterm elections. Betting websites give the Democrats a 70% to 72% probability of winning both the House and Senate. Some believe this outcome could weaken the dollar, as it could lead to a stalemate on the debt ceiling issue, a prolonged government shutdown next year, and potentially prompt Trump to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy agenda. However, these views are largely speculative. ⑶ The institution believes that what is not speculation is that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, inflation has been above target for the sixth consecutive year, and the Federal Reserve is preparing to tighten policy again. (4) This week's US macroeconomic debate will also include the ISM business survey and employment data. The business survey is expected to show continued optimism and high price pressures. Friday's October employment report is expected to rebound modestly after the weak September data, but unless Friday's report is catastrophically bad, the employment data is unlikely to change the Fed's tightening narrative; price data will be more important. (5) The institution stated that the sell-off in technology stocks remains a concern. Apple will release its earnings report after the market closes today, and the 9% drop in the Nasdaq last month has already led to a softening of short-term US interest rates. If this sector falls further significantly, it could be the biggest risk facing long dollar positions. (6) The institution expects the dollar index to continue trading around 102.00, seeing no clear reason for a downward correction.
