A recent analysis by Goldman Sachs suggests that if Middle Eastern oil production continues to experience supply disruptions, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2027 could reach $130 per barrel. This analyst report, led by Dan Struve, the bank's head of oil research, provides three oil price forecasting frameworks: a baseline scenario, extreme upside scenarios, and downside scenarios, fully reflecting the current oil market's pricing characteristics, which are highly dependent on geopolitical developments. The research report points out that although Middle Eastern crude oil supply has seen a phased recovery, the risk of passive production cuts due to geopolitical conflicts remains high, and it cannot be simply assumed that the supply gap will steadily narrow. In the upside risk scenario, assuming that the average daily production of Middle Eastern crude oil remains 3.5 million barrels lower than the 2025 average, Brent crude oil's intraday high could reach $140/barrel, with the annual average price stabilizing at $130. The main factors driving oil prices towards this extreme scenario include: increased attacks on oil tankers, long-term damage to regional refining facilities preventing them from reaching full capacity, and the market continuing to impose risk premiums on Middle Eastern shipping routes. In contrast, Goldman Sachs' baseline neutral forecast is relatively moderate, raising the 2027 average Brent crude oil price to $88/barrel, higher than the previous expectation of $80. The core premise for this scenario is a steady release of global crude oil supply, with the average daily supply increasing by 1.1 million barrels compared to last year's average. In a downside scenario, if the Persian Gulf region's production recovery progresses faster than expected, with daily output increasing by 2.5 million barrels compared to 2025, Brent crude oil prices could potentially fall back to the $60 range. The primary trigger is a significantly faster-than-expected recovery in Middle Eastern crude oil exports, along with smooth progress in shipping lanes and refinery maintenance. Year-to-date, Brent crude oil prices have risen nearly 80% and are currently fluctuating around $108 per barrel. The initial military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran broke through the important psychological barrier of $100. The market is currently reassessing the risk of escalation, with reports that the White House plans to launch a new round of military action after the US midterm elections on Tuesday. Iran warned on Sunday that if a renewed military confrontation with the US and Israel breaks out, this round of conflict will last longer than the previous one. A multinational mediation team is currently holding talks in Qatar over the weekend to discuss a ceasefire plan. All parties are awaiting the US response to its proposal to Iran: Iran has stated that if the Trump administration accepts a package of economic and military conditions, it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy shipping route. The Iranian conflict has become a key issue for voters ahead of the US election, with energy shocks pushing up domestic prices and exacerbating American public resentment towards the country's deep involvement in overseas geopolitical conflicts. The Struvin team, in its report, concluded that the Middle East conflict, the Russia-Ukraine dispute, and the continued fragmentation of the global geopolitical landscape have collectively created an extremely high risk of supply disruptions; such disturbances are sudden, and their timing and location are difficult to predict in advance, bringing significant uncertainty to oil market pricing. Besides Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank also provided an independent analysis from an inflation perspective. Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen, in a report on Monday, pointed out a noteworthy divergence in expectations: while oil prices continue to rise, short-term inflationary pressures are also increasing, but the market has largely ruled out the possibility of central banks restarting interest rate hikes, while long-term inflation expectations remain stable. Allen believes the core risk lies in market investors underestimating the stickiness of inflation and the secondary transmission effect of energy shocks. A review of historical energy crises reveals that the cascading inflationary consequences of supply shocks often take several months to fully reflect in price data. Energy permeates every aspect of the economy; if oil prices remain high for an extended period, other industries tend to pass on energy costs to end products, further pushing up overall inflation. In his view, the market hasn't fully priced in the subsequent chain reaction of high inflation, partly because the market previously widely expected the central bank to suppress prices through interest rate hikes; however, the mainstream expectation has shifted, with the market increasingly believing that monetary policy will remain loose, or even begin interest rate cuts. Simultaneously, there's an optimistic logic in the market that high oil prices will suppress demand for crude oil in industry and transportation, forcing prices down through demand contraction. However, Allen also cautions that the simultaneous rise in long-term crude oil futures prices indicates that the market isn't simply betting that demand will quickly suppress oil prices; the subsequent evolution of inflation and oil prices remains highly uncertain.