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2026-11-04 19:32:27
[Midterm Election Eases Middle East Conflict Expectations, Limiting Oil Price Upside] ⑴ Deutsche Bank analysts point out that if the geopolitical situation with Iran continues to ease, crude oil prices will continue to face downward pressure. ⑵ Trump publicly stated that a military attack on Iran will not occur in the short term, while acknowledging that the Middle East conflict has dragged down the Republican Party's midterm election prospects. ⑶ Current oil prices have already factored in a high geopolitical risk premium due to escalating conflict and oil supply disruptions. Once the situation stabilizes, the premium will quickly subside, and oil prices will subsequently fall. ⑷ On the day, crude oil prices fluctuated and weakened. Near-month Brent crude fell 1.4% to close at $101.75 per barrel; West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.8% to $94.68 per barrel. ⑸ After the geopolitical premium subsides, oil prices will return to supply and demand fundamentals, lacking strong upward momentum in the short term.
