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2026-11-05 09:28:26
[Philippines' October CPI rose 7.8% year-on-year, the fastest growth since February 2023] (1) The Philippines' inflation rate rose to 7.8% in October, up from 7.2% in September, the fastest growth since February 2023. (2) The Philippine central bank had previously expected October inflation to be in the range of 7.1% to 8.1%; eight economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predicted 7.9%. (3) Persistent inflationary pressures support the Philippine central bank's policy stance. Since the Middle East war triggered the oil crisis, the Philippine central bank has raised interest rates by 125 basis points, ranking among the top in tightening, although this may drag down already weak economic growth. (4) Like other energy-importing countries, the Philippines is vulnerable to supply shocks, but has fewer mechanisms to prevent fuel prices from being transmitted to broader inflation; the weak peso has increased import expenditures, making the situation more complicated. (5) The Philippine central bank stated that it will take all necessary measures to control inflation and leaves room for further interest rate hikes, but some analysts believe its tightening cycle is nearing its end; if the recent decline in oil prices continues, it may provide some relief, and the central bank is also paying attention to the risk of food price shocks caused by El Niño weather. (6) The main contributors to inflation in October included transportation, as well as housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; the core inflation rate accelerated to 5.4% from the revised 4.8% in September. The overall inflation rate year-to-date is 5.6%, and the core rate is 4.0%.
