CITIC Construction Investment Futures: US employment cools, interest rate cut expectations improve
2025-08-04 10:58:28
Copper: Macro outlook: Neutral with a slight bullish bias. US non-farm payrolls fell far short of expectations, with the previous figure also revised significantly downward. The unexpectedly weak labor market boosted expectations of interest rate cuts, while the falling US dollar stabilised copper prices, resulting in a neutral to bearish fundamental outlook. Global copper inventories rebounded to nearly 500,000 tons. Last week, the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a reduction of 880 tons, bringing the total to 72,500 tons, while LME copper inventories increased by 14,000 tons, bringing the total to 141,800 tons. We remain cautious about the potential for price support from recovering downstream demand. Overall, the return of copper to the spot market, the drag of the off-season, and the cooling of the overseas economy suggest a weak trend in copper prices in the short term. However, due to the rapid and significant decline in the previous period, short-term price fluctuations are expected. Today's main trading range for Shanghai copper is 77,500-79,000 yuan/ton. Strategically, short-term short positions may be placed at the upper end of the intraday range.
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.17%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.24%, the STAR Market 50 Index fell 1.06%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.79%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.21%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.14%. Trading volume across the two markets totaled 1,598.351 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 337.685 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best performing sectors were environmental protection (0.88%), media (0.82%), and light manufacturing (0.65%). The worst performing sectors were petroleum and petrochemicals (-1.79%), defense and military (-1.47%), and steel (-1.26%). Regarding basis, the basis of all four major stock indices weakened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.20% and -3.70%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -10.90% and -12.30%. For hedging purposes, quarterly contracts may be considered for short positions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued their downward trend in the previous trading day, with a significant decrease in trading volume. Yesterday, the recent strong performance of cyclical sectors continued its correction, significantly suppressing the SSE 50 and CSI 300. The CSI 1000 was the only one of the four major stock indices to close higher. The sharp decline in trading volume in both markets may indicate that the short-term market oscillation has largely concluded. However, the release of July US employment and PMI data on Friday night significantly missed expectations, leading to a sharp decline in US stocks and the US dollar index, while gold and US Treasury bonds rallied. The sharp drop in US financial markets the previous trading day may trigger short-term panic in the domestic stock market, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets may open lower or decline in early trading. Overall, the macroeconomic environment has not fundamentally changed. We anticipate that proactive fiscal policies and moderately accommodative monetary policies will continue, leading to a stable recovery in the macroeconomy and strong support for the index. Profitability of small and medium-sized enterprises is also expected to improve. This two-way recovery in both earnings and valuations may lead to outperformance of small and mid-cap stocks. A lower opening today could present a good opportunity to establish a short-term long position. We recommend maintaining long positions in IC and IM.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.17%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.24%, the STAR Market 50 Index fell 1.06%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.79%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.21%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.14%, and the SZSE 100 ETF fell 0.24%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 1,598.351 billion yuan, down approximately 337.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-tier sectors, the best-performing were environmental protection (0.88%), media (0.82%), and light manufacturing (0.65%). The worst-performing sectors were steel (-1.26%), defense and military (-1.47%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (-1.79%). After a month of continuous gains, A-shares have experienced a significant correction in recent days. On the news front, the United States resumed imposing so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1st. Key domestic meetings delivered relatively modest statements, and the July PMI fell month-over-month to 49.3%. Amidst multiple macroeconomic events, short-term market risk appetite has declined. In the medium term, with effective domestic policy implementation and easing liquidity, incremental capital inflows continue to drive upward movement in the stock index's volatility. Strategically, medium-term covered call portfolios are recommended. Regarding volatility, short-term market corrections may drive upward implied volatility, so volatility sell-side strategies should prioritize position management in the short term.
Coke: 1. Jiang Yi, Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that the third tranche of 69 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds supporting the trade-in of consumer goods has been fully disbursed. The fourth tranche of 69 billion yuan will be disbursed as planned in October, completing this year's planned 300 billion yuan in funding. Furthermore, the 800 billion yuan list for this year's "double-heavy" construction projects has been fully disbursed, and 735 billion yuan in central budgetary investment has been largely allocated. The next step will be to work with various departments and local governments to strengthen overall coordination and ensure key elements are in place, accelerating project progress and promoting high-quality development of the "double-heavy" construction projects.
Coking Coal: 1. To address competition within the industry, China Shenhua announced plans to acquire equity in 13 companies under its controlling shareholder, China Energy Group, across coal, coal-fired power, coal chemical, and transportation sectors through a combination of share issuance and cash payments, and to raise matching funds. The transaction is expected to reach hundreds of billions of yuan. This acquisition will significantly enhance the company's coal production capacity, power synergy, coal chemical processing capabilities, and overall industry chain integration, accelerating the development of an integrated "coal-power-chemical-transportation-marketing" operating platform. This move represents a key step for China Energy Group in fulfilling its commitment to avoid competition within the industry and is a prime example of state-owned enterprises promoting specialized integration, supported by policies such as the "Six Measures for Mergers and Acquisitions."
Shanghai Lead: Shanghai lead prices fluctuated strongly on Friday night. Fundamentally, for scrap batteries, high summer temperatures limited supply to recyclers, keeping overall external quotes relatively firm. On the supply side, both primary and recycled lead production saw reductions and resumptions, and due to cost pressures, overall lead supply may see significant increases or decreases in August. On the demand side, the shift to peak season for end-user consumption has yet to be evident, and downstream battery companies will maintain their purchasing needs in the short term. Overall, consumer performance remains subdued, putting upward pressure on lead prices.
Shanghai zinc prices fluctuated weakly on Friday night. On the macroeconomic front, weak US non-farm payroll data fueled expectations of an interest rate cut. Fundamentally, on the supply side, raw material prices saw a slight increase in August TC, weakening cost support. According to Baichuan Yingfu, August production increased by over 10,000 tons month-over-month, and the trend of inventory accumulation has not slowed. On the demand side, it was reported that galvanizing plants in North China planned to halt production in late August due to relevant meetings, putting pressure on spot premiums. Overall, fundamental expectations for ingot prices are accumulating, and it remains to be seen whether the interest rate cut will boost expectations.
Nickel and Stainless Steel: On a macro level, the unexpectedly disappointing US non-farm payroll data has shifted market expectations for the September Federal Reserve meeting from no rate cut to a rate cut. This macroeconomic support may provide support for nickel prices. Regarding the industry, the fundamentals of pure nickel remain unchanged, with the oversupply situation remaining and spot trading limited. While Indonesian nickel ore is hot, tight supply remains. However, with the steady release of RKAB quotas, support from the mine sector may weaken. Regarding ferronickel, steel mills have weakened their price pressure, but negative fundamental pressure remains. Regarding stainless steel, oversupply persists, but profit margins support the market, which is expected to have limited room for further decline. Regarding nickel and stainless steel, trading is recommended within a range. The reference range for Shanghai Nickel 2509 is 115,000-125,000 yuan/ton. The reference range for SS2509 is 12,300-13,500 yuan/ton.
Rebar: With the gradual implementation of macroeconomic policies, market sentiment has cooled. Last week, rebar production decreased by 9,000 tons month-on-month, while social rebar inventories increased by 111,700 tons. Steel mill inventories decreased by 35,200 tons. Apparent demand fell by 131,700 tons to 2,034,100 tons, the lowest level in five months. The short-term rebound driven by macroeconomic expectations may be drawing to a close, and trading logic may return to realistic fundamentals. Steel profits are healthy, daily hot metal production remains strong, inventories remain low, and the supply-demand imbalance in the steel market is not significant. In the short term, construction steel prices may enter a period of range-bound fluctuations.
Hot-rolled coil (HCR): On the industry front, data from China Steel Union shows that HRC production increased by 53,000 tons last week, with accumulated inventory reaching 27,900 tons. Apparent demand rebounded by 47,600 tons to 3.2 million tons. Short-term supply and demand in the steel market is not significantly imbalanced, and the rebound driven by macroeconomic expectations may be drawing to a close. Trading logic may then return to realistic fundamentals, leading to a period of range-bound fluctuations in HRC prices in the short term.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.17%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.24%, the STAR Market 50 Index fell 1.06%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.79%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.21%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.14%. Trading volume across the two markets totaled 1,598.351 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 337.685 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best performing sectors were environmental protection (0.88%), media (0.82%), and light manufacturing (0.65%). The worst performing sectors were petroleum and petrochemicals (-1.79%), defense and military (-1.47%), and steel (-1.26%). Regarding basis, the basis of all four major stock indices weakened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.20% and -3.70%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -10.90% and -12.30%. For hedging purposes, quarterly contracts may be considered for short positions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued their downward trend in the previous trading day, with a significant decrease in trading volume. Yesterday, the recent strong performance of cyclical sectors continued its correction, significantly suppressing the SSE 50 and CSI 300. The CSI 1000 was the only one of the four major stock indices to close higher. The sharp decline in trading volume in both markets may indicate that the short-term market oscillation has largely concluded. However, the release of July US employment and PMI data on Friday night significantly missed expectations, leading to a sharp decline in US stocks and the US dollar index, while gold and US Treasury bonds rallied. The sharp drop in US financial markets the previous trading day may trigger short-term panic in the domestic stock market, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets may open lower or decline in early trading. Overall, the macroeconomic environment has not fundamentally changed. We anticipate that proactive fiscal policies and moderately accommodative monetary policies will continue, leading to a stable recovery in the macroeconomy and strong support for the index. Profitability of small and medium-sized enterprises is also expected to improve. This two-way recovery in both earnings and valuations may lead to outperformance of small and mid-cap stocks. A lower opening today could present a good opportunity to establish a short-term long position. We recommend maintaining long positions in IC and IM.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.17%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.24%, the STAR Market 50 Index fell 1.06%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.79%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.21%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.14%, and the SZSE 100 ETF fell 0.24%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 1,598.351 billion yuan, down approximately 337.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-tier sectors, the best-performing were environmental protection (0.88%), media (0.82%), and light manufacturing (0.65%). The worst-performing sectors were steel (-1.26%), defense and military (-1.47%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (-1.79%). After a month of continuous gains, A-shares have experienced a significant correction in recent days. On the news front, the United States resumed imposing so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1st. Key domestic meetings delivered relatively modest statements, and the July PMI fell month-over-month to 49.3%. Amidst multiple macroeconomic events, short-term market risk appetite has declined. In the medium term, with effective domestic policy implementation and easing liquidity, incremental capital inflows continue to drive upward movement in the stock index's volatility. Strategically, medium-term covered call portfolios are recommended. Regarding volatility, short-term market corrections may drive upward implied volatility, so volatility sell-side strategies should prioritize position management in the short term.
Coke: 1. Jiang Yi, Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that the third tranche of 69 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds supporting the trade-in of consumer goods has been fully disbursed. The fourth tranche of 69 billion yuan will be disbursed as planned in October, completing this year's planned 300 billion yuan in funding. Furthermore, the 800 billion yuan list for this year's "double-heavy" construction projects has been fully disbursed, and 735 billion yuan in central budgetary investment has been largely allocated. The next step will be to work with various departments and local governments to strengthen overall coordination and ensure key elements are in place, accelerating project progress and promoting high-quality development of the "double-heavy" construction projects.
Coking Coal: 1. To address competition within the industry, China Shenhua announced plans to acquire equity in 13 companies under its controlling shareholder, China Energy Group, across coal, coal-fired power, coal chemical, and transportation sectors through a combination of share issuance and cash payments, and to raise matching funds. The transaction is expected to reach hundreds of billions of yuan. This acquisition will significantly enhance the company's coal production capacity, power synergy, coal chemical processing capabilities, and overall industry chain integration, accelerating the development of an integrated "coal-power-chemical-transportation-marketing" operating platform. This move represents a key step for China Energy Group in fulfilling its commitment to avoid competition within the industry and is a prime example of state-owned enterprises promoting specialized integration, supported by policies such as the "Six Measures for Mergers and Acquisitions."
Shanghai Lead: Shanghai lead prices fluctuated strongly on Friday night. Fundamentally, for scrap batteries, high summer temperatures limited supply to recyclers, keeping overall external quotes relatively firm. On the supply side, both primary and recycled lead production saw reductions and resumptions, and due to cost pressures, overall lead supply may see significant increases or decreases in August. On the demand side, the shift to peak season for end-user consumption has yet to be evident, and downstream battery companies will maintain their purchasing needs in the short term. Overall, consumer performance remains subdued, putting upward pressure on lead prices.
Shanghai zinc prices fluctuated weakly on Friday night. On the macroeconomic front, weak US non-farm payroll data fueled expectations of an interest rate cut. Fundamentally, on the supply side, raw material prices saw a slight increase in August TC, weakening cost support. According to Baichuan Yingfu, August production increased by over 10,000 tons month-over-month, and the trend of inventory accumulation has not slowed. On the demand side, it was reported that galvanizing plants in North China planned to halt production in late August due to relevant meetings, putting pressure on spot premiums. Overall, fundamental expectations for ingot prices are accumulating, and it remains to be seen whether the interest rate cut will boost expectations.
Nickel and Stainless Steel: On a macro level, the unexpectedly disappointing US non-farm payroll data has shifted market expectations for the September Federal Reserve meeting from no rate cut to a rate cut. This macroeconomic support may provide support for nickel prices. Regarding the industry, the fundamentals of pure nickel remain unchanged, with the oversupply situation remaining and spot trading limited. While Indonesian nickel ore is hot, tight supply remains. However, with the steady release of RKAB quotas, support from the mine sector may weaken. Regarding ferronickel, steel mills have weakened their price pressure, but negative fundamental pressure remains. Regarding stainless steel, oversupply persists, but profit margins support the market, which is expected to have limited room for further decline. Regarding nickel and stainless steel, trading is recommended within a range. The reference range for Shanghai Nickel 2509 is 115,000-125,000 yuan/ton. The reference range for SS2509 is 12,300-13,500 yuan/ton.
Rebar: With the gradual implementation of macroeconomic policies, market sentiment has cooled. Last week, rebar production decreased by 9,000 tons month-on-month, while social rebar inventories increased by 111,700 tons. Steel mill inventories decreased by 35,200 tons. Apparent demand fell by 131,700 tons to 2,034,100 tons, the lowest level in five months. The short-term rebound driven by macroeconomic expectations may be drawing to a close, and trading logic may return to realistic fundamentals. Steel profits are healthy, daily hot metal production remains strong, inventories remain low, and the supply-demand imbalance in the steel market is not significant. In the short term, construction steel prices may enter a period of range-bound fluctuations.
Hot-rolled coil (HCR): On the industry front, data from China Steel Union shows that HRC production increased by 53,000 tons last week, with accumulated inventory reaching 27,900 tons. Apparent demand rebounded by 47,600 tons to 3.2 million tons. Short-term supply and demand in the steel market is not significantly imbalanced, and the rebound driven by macroeconomic expectations may be drawing to a close. Trading logic may then return to realistic fundamentals, leading to a period of range-bound fluctuations in HRC prices in the short term.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
