CITIC Construction Investment Futures: Accumulated inventory pressure increases, screw futures night trading falls below 3000
2025-09-12 10:14:05
Rebar: Rebar production fell by 67,500 tons to 2.1193 million tons this week, with social inventories increasing by 185,700 tons. Factory inventories decreased slightly by 47,100 tons, resulting in a 40,000-ton decrease in apparent demand compared to the previous week. Currently, rebar fundamentals remain unchanged, primarily due to rapid inventory accumulation, which is 1.6023 million tons higher than the previous year, leading to accumulating industry conflicts. With the gradual resumption of blast furnace production, hot metal levels remain high, while end-user demand remains weak, and inventory pressures are still accumulating. Steel prices are expected to remain volatile at low levels.
Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC): This week, HRC production increased by 109,000 tons, while inventories decreased slightly by 10,200 tons. Apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons to 3.2616 million tons. The current fundamentals for HRC are relatively optimistic. While overall production is high, demand remains resilient. We should monitor the progress of inventory reduction in the future. If demand remains weak, prices may continue to fall. Strategically, the reference range for rebar 2601 contracts is 3050-3200, and the reference range for HRC 2601 contracts is 3250-3400.
Rubber: On Thursday, domestic full latex was priced at 15,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber was priced at 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Raw materials: Yesterday, Thai rubber closed at 56.2 baht/kg, up 0.2 baht/kg from the previous day; Thai cup rubber closed at 52.2 baht/kg, down 0.35 baht/kg from the previous day; Yunnan rubber closed at 14.8 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Hainan rubber closed at 13.4 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.258 million tons, down 7,000 tons (0.57%) from the previous day. China's total dark rubber social inventory was 793,000 tons, down 0.5% from the previous day. Spot inventory in Qingdao decreased by 1.7%, while that in Yunnan increased by 3.7%. Tire 10# in Vietnam decreased by 3%, while NR inventories increased by 3%. China's total light-colored rubber inventory reached 465,000 tons, a 0.7% decrease month-over-month. Old full-latex latex increased by 1.5% month-over-month, 3L latex increased by 0.3%, and RU inventories decreased by 3%. Viewpoint: The recent peak of the rainy season continues in major Southeast Asian producing regions, including Thailand, and rainfall continues to impose certain restrictions on tapping (Note: Heavy rain does not mean fewer areas or days for tapping, but it does limit the expansion of tapping operations). Côte d'Ivoire remains rainless, so short-term production expansion remains limited, in line with seasonal trends. On the demand side, domestic tire companies are entering a period of concentrated maintenance. With production capacity declining, finished product inventories are being reduced, leading to a strengthening demand side (i.e., past expectations are being met). With renewed market expectations, RU and NR prices are strengthening again, driven by the rainy season. Looking back, since the expected growth in demand will mainly come from the Chinese market (accounting for 20-25% of the world), the improvement in the overall balance will still be limited, so it is expected that there will be limited upward space in the future.
Alumina: Overnight alumina prices stabilized at a low level, while spot prices continued to decline and the basis narrowed slightly. Discounted trading persisted in the spot market, with spot price transactions most prevalent in Shandong, with prices mostly trading at premiums of 30-50 yuan above the 2510 contract price. 3,000 tons of spot alumina were traded in Guizhou at an ex-factory price of 3,180 yuan/ton, with transactions between traders and aluminum smelters. The first phase of an alumina roasting project in Gansu will begin mass production this week, with initial monthly output estimated at around 60,000 tons, with subsequent increases. Alumina hydrogen is primarily supplied from Hebei. Overseas spot prices have fallen significantly, and the import window has temporarily opened, increasing domestic supply pressures. Warehouse receipts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to increase by 7,822 tons, currently at 121,933 tons. Alumina remains bearish.
Shanghai Aluminum: Macroeconomically, US inflation unexpectedly declined, with the August PPI falling by -0.1% month-over-month, marking the first negative reading in four months. The year-over-year growth rate of 2.6% was lower than expected, further reinforcing expectations of a September interest rate cut. China's CPI fell by 0.4% year-over-year in August, while the core CPI rebounded to 0.9%. The year-over-year decline in the PPI narrowed to 2.9%. China will implement more proactive macroeconomic policies in due course in the fourth quarter, contributing to a bullish outlook. From a fundamental perspective, alumina spot prices have recently continued to decline, while electrolytic aluminum smelting profits continue to recover. New capacity on the supply side will gradually be released by the end of the year, with short-term supply pressure coming from a rebound in imports. On Wednesday, social inventories in major aluminum ingot consuming regions reached 473,000 tons, down 2,000 tons month-over-month. The pace of aluminum ingot accumulation slowed further this week, coupled with strengthening macroeconomic sentiment, contributing to a relatively strong performance in aluminum prices.
Aluminum Alloys: Overnight alloy prices fluctuated strongly. Macroeconomically, the US August CPI performance met expectations, raising expectations of interest rate cuts, and nonferrous metals still maintained support. From a fundamental perspective, on the raw material side, the cancellation of tax rebates in some regions has been implemented, and invoiced scrap aluminum prices have remained firm. Overall, prices have been mixed, with primary aluminum prices experiencing a rebound. On the supply and demand side, smelting profits have risen, and Shanghai nonferrous metals recycling plants have resumed operations. Die-casting plants are generally on the sidelines, with demand performance weak in early September. Regarding price differentials, the AD2511-AL2511 spread has fluctuated around -420, with Baotai's offer remaining flat at 20,400, and the spot discount has gradually narrowed. Overall, with recent market maker activity and growing expectations of interest rate cuts, alloy prices have been volatile, following aluminum's lead.
Shanghai Lead: Shanghai lead prices fluctuated strongly overnight. Fundamentally, on the supply side, recycling consumption is weak, and the volume of scrapped batteries is also relatively limited. On-site supply growth is expected to be weak, and recycling lead smelters are scheduled for increased maintenance in September. On the primary lead side, the supply and demand situation for lead concentrate remains tight, with imported ore entering the domestic market at very low temperatures, leading to a decline in smelting operating rates. On the demand side, the new national standard still needs to boost downstream market consumption, and downstream battery companies remain cautious in purchasing, putting short-term pressure on the consumer side. Overall, spot demand remains suppressed, and lead prices are primarily volatile at low levels.
Shanghai Zinc: Macroeconomically, the US August CPI performance met expectations, raising expectations for interest rate cuts, and non-ferrous metals remain supported. From a fundamental perspective, domestic TC prices saw a month-on-month decline in September, while imported ore inventories continued to accumulate, suggesting potential for further gains in imported TC prices. On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu research, additional refinery shutdowns in Henan Province occurred at the beginning of the month, though these operations were gradually resumed yesterday, resulting in a continued oversupply. On the demand side, demand improved slightly in September, but has yet to reach peak season levels. Yesterday, social inventories saw a slight increase, widening the discount. Overall, rising expectations for interest rate cuts have led to a correction in zinc prices, but fundamentals are suppressing any upward movement.
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36%, the ChiNext Index rose 5.15%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 5.32%, the CSI 300 Index rose 2.31%, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.48%, the CSI 500 Index rose 2.75%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.35%. The trading volume of the two markets totaled 2.437719 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 459.596 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best-performing sectors were communications (7.39%), electronics (5.96%), and computers (3.71%). The worst-performing sectors were textiles and apparel (0.14%), petroleum and petrochemicals (0.20%), and social services (0.22%). Regarding basis, the basis of all four major stock indices strengthened significantly. The annualized basis rates for IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.70% and -1.50%, respectively; while those for IC and IM quarterly contracts are -8.20% and -11.10%. For hedging purposes, quarterly and monthly contracts may be considered for short positions. Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets saw significant upward fluctuations. The indices opened slightly lower before continuing to rise. Trading volume in both markets rebounded significantly after falling into the range in the previous trading session. Looking at primary sectors, technology sectors such as communications, electronics, and computers saw a significant upward trend after a significant downward correction, indicating that the market remains optimistic about future economic and technological development. All Shenwan primary sector indices rose, but cyclical sectors generally performed relatively weakly. As some hot-button concept sectors in the technology sector continue to see significant cumulative gains, there is still the possibility of significant sector switching in the market. Yesterday, the State Council and other departments held briefings on follow-up work and policy arrangements. Further policy details are expected to be released in due course. IC and IM are expected to continue to rise on the back of positive sentiment. Maintaining long positions is recommended.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36%, the ChiNext Index rose 5.15%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 5.32%, the CSI 300 Index rose 2.31%, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.48%, the CSI 500 Index rose 2.75%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.35%, and the SZSE 100 ETF rose 3.82%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 2.437719 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 459.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Securities primary sectors, the best-performing sectors were communications (7.39%), electronics (5.96%), and computers (3.71%). The worst-performing sectors were social services (0.22%), petroleum and petrochemicals (0.2%), and textiles and apparel (0.14%). After the option implied volatility surged, it entered a downward range. The cost-effectiveness of put option strategies has increased, and you can consider building positions in batches and holding a double-sell option strategy; if the fundamentals such as the macro economy and the profits of listed companies improve, there will be sufficient upside space. In the long run, the market may be dominated by a volatile strengthening with the center gradually moving upward. You can pay attention to the covered call strategy of stock index futures long positions combined with selling out-of-the-money call options.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC): This week, HRC production increased by 109,000 tons, while inventories decreased slightly by 10,200 tons. Apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons to 3.2616 million tons. The current fundamentals for HRC are relatively optimistic. While overall production is high, demand remains resilient. We should monitor the progress of inventory reduction in the future. If demand remains weak, prices may continue to fall. Strategically, the reference range for rebar 2601 contracts is 3050-3200, and the reference range for HRC 2601 contracts is 3250-3400.
Rubber: On Thursday, domestic full latex was priced at 15,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber was priced at 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Raw materials: Yesterday, Thai rubber closed at 56.2 baht/kg, up 0.2 baht/kg from the previous day; Thai cup rubber closed at 52.2 baht/kg, down 0.35 baht/kg from the previous day; Yunnan rubber closed at 14.8 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Hainan rubber closed at 13.4 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.258 million tons, down 7,000 tons (0.57%) from the previous day. China's total dark rubber social inventory was 793,000 tons, down 0.5% from the previous day. Spot inventory in Qingdao decreased by 1.7%, while that in Yunnan increased by 3.7%. Tire 10# in Vietnam decreased by 3%, while NR inventories increased by 3%. China's total light-colored rubber inventory reached 465,000 tons, a 0.7% decrease month-over-month. Old full-latex latex increased by 1.5% month-over-month, 3L latex increased by 0.3%, and RU inventories decreased by 3%. Viewpoint: The recent peak of the rainy season continues in major Southeast Asian producing regions, including Thailand, and rainfall continues to impose certain restrictions on tapping (Note: Heavy rain does not mean fewer areas or days for tapping, but it does limit the expansion of tapping operations). Côte d'Ivoire remains rainless, so short-term production expansion remains limited, in line with seasonal trends. On the demand side, domestic tire companies are entering a period of concentrated maintenance. With production capacity declining, finished product inventories are being reduced, leading to a strengthening demand side (i.e., past expectations are being met). With renewed market expectations, RU and NR prices are strengthening again, driven by the rainy season. Looking back, since the expected growth in demand will mainly come from the Chinese market (accounting for 20-25% of the world), the improvement in the overall balance will still be limited, so it is expected that there will be limited upward space in the future.
Alumina: Overnight alumina prices stabilized at a low level, while spot prices continued to decline and the basis narrowed slightly. Discounted trading persisted in the spot market, with spot price transactions most prevalent in Shandong, with prices mostly trading at premiums of 30-50 yuan above the 2510 contract price. 3,000 tons of spot alumina were traded in Guizhou at an ex-factory price of 3,180 yuan/ton, with transactions between traders and aluminum smelters. The first phase of an alumina roasting project in Gansu will begin mass production this week, with initial monthly output estimated at around 60,000 tons, with subsequent increases. Alumina hydrogen is primarily supplied from Hebei. Overseas spot prices have fallen significantly, and the import window has temporarily opened, increasing domestic supply pressures. Warehouse receipts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to increase by 7,822 tons, currently at 121,933 tons. Alumina remains bearish.
Shanghai Aluminum: Macroeconomically, US inflation unexpectedly declined, with the August PPI falling by -0.1% month-over-month, marking the first negative reading in four months. The year-over-year growth rate of 2.6% was lower than expected, further reinforcing expectations of a September interest rate cut. China's CPI fell by 0.4% year-over-year in August, while the core CPI rebounded to 0.9%. The year-over-year decline in the PPI narrowed to 2.9%. China will implement more proactive macroeconomic policies in due course in the fourth quarter, contributing to a bullish outlook. From a fundamental perspective, alumina spot prices have recently continued to decline, while electrolytic aluminum smelting profits continue to recover. New capacity on the supply side will gradually be released by the end of the year, with short-term supply pressure coming from a rebound in imports. On Wednesday, social inventories in major aluminum ingot consuming regions reached 473,000 tons, down 2,000 tons month-over-month. The pace of aluminum ingot accumulation slowed further this week, coupled with strengthening macroeconomic sentiment, contributing to a relatively strong performance in aluminum prices.
Aluminum Alloys: Overnight alloy prices fluctuated strongly. Macroeconomically, the US August CPI performance met expectations, raising expectations of interest rate cuts, and nonferrous metals still maintained support. From a fundamental perspective, on the raw material side, the cancellation of tax rebates in some regions has been implemented, and invoiced scrap aluminum prices have remained firm. Overall, prices have been mixed, with primary aluminum prices experiencing a rebound. On the supply and demand side, smelting profits have risen, and Shanghai nonferrous metals recycling plants have resumed operations. Die-casting plants are generally on the sidelines, with demand performance weak in early September. Regarding price differentials, the AD2511-AL2511 spread has fluctuated around -420, with Baotai's offer remaining flat at 20,400, and the spot discount has gradually narrowed. Overall, with recent market maker activity and growing expectations of interest rate cuts, alloy prices have been volatile, following aluminum's lead.
Shanghai Lead: Shanghai lead prices fluctuated strongly overnight. Fundamentally, on the supply side, recycling consumption is weak, and the volume of scrapped batteries is also relatively limited. On-site supply growth is expected to be weak, and recycling lead smelters are scheduled for increased maintenance in September. On the primary lead side, the supply and demand situation for lead concentrate remains tight, with imported ore entering the domestic market at very low temperatures, leading to a decline in smelting operating rates. On the demand side, the new national standard still needs to boost downstream market consumption, and downstream battery companies remain cautious in purchasing, putting short-term pressure on the consumer side. Overall, spot demand remains suppressed, and lead prices are primarily volatile at low levels.
Shanghai Zinc: Macroeconomically, the US August CPI performance met expectations, raising expectations for interest rate cuts, and non-ferrous metals remain supported. From a fundamental perspective, domestic TC prices saw a month-on-month decline in September, while imported ore inventories continued to accumulate, suggesting potential for further gains in imported TC prices. On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu research, additional refinery shutdowns in Henan Province occurred at the beginning of the month, though these operations were gradually resumed yesterday, resulting in a continued oversupply. On the demand side, demand improved slightly in September, but has yet to reach peak season levels. Yesterday, social inventories saw a slight increase, widening the discount. Overall, rising expectations for interest rate cuts have led to a correction in zinc prices, but fundamentals are suppressing any upward movement.
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36%, the ChiNext Index rose 5.15%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 5.32%, the CSI 300 Index rose 2.31%, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.48%, the CSI 500 Index rose 2.75%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.35%. The trading volume of the two markets totaled 2.437719 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 459.596 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best-performing sectors were communications (7.39%), electronics (5.96%), and computers (3.71%). The worst-performing sectors were textiles and apparel (0.14%), petroleum and petrochemicals (0.20%), and social services (0.22%). Regarding basis, the basis of all four major stock indices strengthened significantly. The annualized basis rates for IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.70% and -1.50%, respectively; while those for IC and IM quarterly contracts are -8.20% and -11.10%. For hedging purposes, quarterly and monthly contracts may be considered for short positions. Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets saw significant upward fluctuations. The indices opened slightly lower before continuing to rise. Trading volume in both markets rebounded significantly after falling into the range in the previous trading session. Looking at primary sectors, technology sectors such as communications, electronics, and computers saw a significant upward trend after a significant downward correction, indicating that the market remains optimistic about future economic and technological development. All Shenwan primary sector indices rose, but cyclical sectors generally performed relatively weakly. As some hot-button concept sectors in the technology sector continue to see significant cumulative gains, there is still the possibility of significant sector switching in the market. Yesterday, the State Council and other departments held briefings on follow-up work and policy arrangements. Further policy details are expected to be released in due course. IC and IM are expected to continue to rise on the back of positive sentiment. Maintaining long positions is recommended.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36%, the ChiNext Index rose 5.15%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 5.32%, the CSI 300 Index rose 2.31%, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.48%, the CSI 500 Index rose 2.75%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.35%, and the SZSE 100 ETF rose 3.82%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 2.437719 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 459.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Securities primary sectors, the best-performing sectors were communications (7.39%), electronics (5.96%), and computers (3.71%). The worst-performing sectors were social services (0.22%), petroleum and petrochemicals (0.2%), and textiles and apparel (0.14%). After the option implied volatility surged, it entered a downward range. The cost-effectiveness of put option strategies has increased, and you can consider building positions in batches and holding a double-sell option strategy; if the fundamentals such as the macro economy and the profits of listed companies improve, there will be sufficient upside space. In the long run, the market may be dominated by a volatile strengthening with the center gradually moving upward. You can pay attention to the covered call strategy of stock index futures long positions combined with selling out-of-the-money call options.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
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