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2025-09-16 21:22:40
German Bund Auctions to Begin, Ten-Year Yields Hover at Highs, Hidden Signs of Multiple Negative Factors: (1) Germany will auction €2.5 billion of 30-year bonds on Wednesday (Beijing Time), targeting both old and current maturities of August 2048 and August 2056. Institutions noted that this mix is identical to the July auction, where the 8/48 bond received a strong 4.6 times oversubscription, while the 8/56 bond attracted only €1.58 billion in bids, well below the €1.5 billion target. This suggests market sentiment may remain cautious. (2) The current 30-year German Bund yield is 3.30%, slightly above the low of 3.24% reached on September 11, but still some distance from the high of 3.435% reached on September 3. Notably, 3.435% is the lowest level for 30-year German Bunds since July 2011, potentially signaling potential value. (3) Despite multi-year high yields, market participants remain generally cautious. Persistent and stubborn global inflation, coupled with deglobalization trends, could lead to inflation lingering at high levels. Furthermore, Germany's significantly expanded fiscal policy, the already strained fiscal positions of other Western countries, the Dutch pension plan's shift from defined benefit to defined contribution, and even concerns about the independence of the US central bank are all weighing on long-term bonds. The upward trend in bond yields since mid-June may therefore have a deeper meaning, demonstrating that investors are considering multiple factors, including macroeconomics, fiscal policy, and geopolitics, when making decisions. This leads to a more conservative trading mentality and a more cautious balance of potential returns and risks.
