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[Trade "Ceasefire" Exceeds Expectations, Risk Assets Rally: Key Movements in Crude Oil and the US Dollar Index] ⑴ The US-China trade meeting concluded on Wednesday with a preliminary framework agreement, immediately easing market concerns about geopolitical risks and global liquidity. ⑵ Regarding the details of the agreement, the US agreed to reduce fentanyl-related tariffs from 20% to 10%; in reciprocity, China pledged to "explore cooperation" in energy trade. ⑶ Market reaction was optimistic, indicating a significant cooling of risk aversion: the US dollar index fell to 98.95, and safe-haven gold also fell and stabilized. ⑷ Concerns about crude oil supply eased, with WTI crude oil slightly rising to $58.50/barrel. Although geopolitical events such as the attack on Ukrainian oil depots and India's suspension of Russian oil purchases persist, the "energy stability" framework proposed at the meeting and China's commitment to alternative pathways offset short-term supply shocks. In the long term, the global oil price center may therefore shift down by $2-3/barrel. (5) The Fed's signals regarding ending quantitative tightening (QT) by the end of the year, echoing the "liquidity cooperation" mentioned at the meeting, have strengthened market expectations for an easing cycle. Traders have already begun pricing in two additional rate cuts in 2025; as a result, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.01%, and the yield curve is flattening. (6) Structural competition remains, but risk assets have benefited significantly in the short term, with the S&P 500 index reaching a new high of 6,909 points. (7) If both sides follow up with an agreement in November, volatility in the oil and bond markets may decrease by 20%; otherwise, the risk of a resurgence of geopolitical events should be watched closely. (8) In the long term, the extension of the Fed's easing cycle may provide strong support for gold, with price support at 3,900. (9) Institutions believe the meeting's outcome is seen as a "truce" rather than a "peace treaty," but its amplifying effect on the resilience of the global supply chain has turned regional geopolitical shocks into positive catalysts for the market. (10) We suggest paying attention to next week's US Treasury auction and Chinese customs data to assess further market developments.