US crude oil prices fell as declining inventories failed to offset supply pressures from OPEC+.
2025-10-30 20:17:40
On Thursday (October 30), WTI crude oil futures edged lower, failing to extend Wednesday's slight rebound and stalling below key technical resistance levels. The 50-day moving average at $59.85 continued to limit upward momentum, with the most recent high at $62.59.
Despite a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing a significant decrease of 6.86 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, far exceeding analysts' expectations of a 211,000-barrel decrease, price movements remained disappointing. Both WTI and Brent crude are on track for their third consecutive monthly decline in October, with both expected to fall by more than 3%, as traders remain wary of the ongoing supply glut.
The US-China trade agreement has failed to provide lasting support.
The moderate easing of the US-China trade dispute has not provided lasting support.
Analysts warn that the agreement lacks structural changes. "It's more like a truce than a solution," said Tamás Varga of PVM, noting that the weakening Brent crude prices contradict strong inventory fundamentals. The limited market reaction suggests that traders are waiting for more concrete shifts in trade policy before reassessing demand forecasts.
The Fed's rate cuts provided limited support for oil bulls.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, briefly boosting market sentiment and reinforcing expectations for growth-promoting monetary policy. However, the Fed stated that this could be the last rate cut of the year, citing the continued government shutdown as a risk to the visibility of future data.
Claudio Galimbetti of Rystad Energy stated that the interest rate decision signals a shift towards "gradual reflation," which could benefit economically sensitive commodities such as crude oil. However, the oil market's reaction remained muted due to lingering fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties.
OPEC+ supply decisions are crucial.
All eyes are now on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on November 2nd. The organization is widely expected to confirm an additional 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in December. Traders are watching closely to assess whether this increase will further exacerbate concerns about market balance or be absorbed by seasonal demand changes.
Outlook: Short-term bearish sentiment prevails.
Despite positive inventory data and policy support, crude oil failed to maintain its gains above key technical levels, indicating fragile market confidence. With new OPEC+ supply on the horizon and waning macroeconomic support, the short-term outlook for crude oil prices remains bearish.
Technical Analysis
(WTI crude oil 4-hour chart source: FX678)
WTI crude oil found support near $56.50, forming a bottom before rebounding and breaking through $58.42. The price broke through the key downtrend line resistance at $59.50, briefly reaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend from the $66.64 high to the $56.37 low. The price also broke above the 100-period simple moving average and tested the 200-period simple moving average.
On the upside, immediate resistance is around $62.00. The first key resistance for bulls is $62.41, which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend from the $66.41 high to the $55.96 low. Major resistance is at $64.00. A close above $64.00 could see oil prices move towards $65.00, with a further test of $66.50 possible.
On the downside, the first major support level is in the $60.00 area. The next support level is $58.42, and a daily close below this level could trigger a larger decline, with bears potentially targeting $56. If this level is broken, the $55.00 area will be tested.
Despite a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing a significant decrease of 6.86 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, far exceeding analysts' expectations of a 211,000-barrel decrease, price movements remained disappointing. Both WTI and Brent crude are on track for their third consecutive monthly decline in October, with both expected to fall by more than 3%, as traders remain wary of the ongoing supply glut.
The US-China trade agreement has failed to provide lasting support.
The moderate easing of the US-China trade dispute has not provided lasting support.
Analysts warn that the agreement lacks structural changes. "It's more like a truce than a solution," said Tamás Varga of PVM, noting that the weakening Brent crude prices contradict strong inventory fundamentals. The limited market reaction suggests that traders are waiting for more concrete shifts in trade policy before reassessing demand forecasts.
The Fed's rate cuts provided limited support for oil bulls.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, briefly boosting market sentiment and reinforcing expectations for growth-promoting monetary policy. However, the Fed stated that this could be the last rate cut of the year, citing the continued government shutdown as a risk to the visibility of future data.
Claudio Galimbetti of Rystad Energy stated that the interest rate decision signals a shift towards "gradual reflation," which could benefit economically sensitive commodities such as crude oil. However, the oil market's reaction remained muted due to lingering fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties.
OPEC+ supply decisions are crucial.
All eyes are now on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on November 2nd. The organization is widely expected to confirm an additional 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in December. Traders are watching closely to assess whether this increase will further exacerbate concerns about market balance or be absorbed by seasonal demand changes.
Outlook: Short-term bearish sentiment prevails.
Despite positive inventory data and policy support, crude oil failed to maintain its gains above key technical levels, indicating fragile market confidence. With new OPEC+ supply on the horizon and waning macroeconomic support, the short-term outlook for crude oil prices remains bearish.
Technical Analysis
(WTI crude oil 4-hour chart source: FX678)
WTI crude oil found support near $56.50, forming a bottom before rebounding and breaking through $58.42. The price broke through the key downtrend line resistance at $59.50, briefly reaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend from the $66.64 high to the $56.37 low. The price also broke above the 100-period simple moving average and tested the 200-period simple moving average.
On the upside, immediate resistance is around $62.00. The first key resistance for bulls is $62.41, which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend from the $66.41 high to the $55.96 low. Major resistance is at $64.00. A close above $64.00 could see oil prices move towards $65.00, with a further test of $66.50 possible.
On the downside, the first major support level is in the $60.00 area. The next support level is $58.42, and a daily close below this level could trigger a larger decline, with bears potentially targeting $56. If this level is broken, the $55.00 area will be tested.
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