Breaking news: Crude oil plunges over 3% – the truth revealed: Russia and the US teamed up to "pour oil" to extinguish the fire.
2025-11-19 21:37:36
International crude oil prices suddenly plunged during the European session on Wednesday (November 19). The December futures contract for US crude oil is currently down 2.83% intraday.
During trading, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister stated that despite US restrictions on two Russian oil companies, production plans were not affected, and domestic prices had even stabilized due to export restrictions, decreased demand, and refinery reopening, leading to a decline in retail crude oil prices.
Meanwhile, on November 19, 2025, the core data successively released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) outlined the complex pattern of the current crude oil market, characterized by "ample supply, inventory accumulation, and short-term price rebound," providing key decision-making references for crude oil traders.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said on Wednesday that Russia may reach its OPEC+ production quota level by the end of 2025 or early 2026.
Russia adheres to the OPEC+ agreement, has no plans to voluntarily cut production, and has already made up for any overproduction in the past.
Maintaining its 2025 liquid hydrocarbon production forecast of 510 million tons demonstrates its confidence in the recovery of production capacity.
This also reflects that the US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have not affected actual production, and that discounts on Russian oil will gradually decrease and soon bottom out.
Another detail is that U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll has arrived in Ukraine and plans to meet with Russian representatives later. Meanwhile, a senior Ukrainian official stated that Ukraine has received "signals" regarding a series of proposals discussed by the U.S. and Russia aimed at ending the conflict, but Ukraine has not participated in the preparation of the proposals. This is a real negative factor for crude oil, but so far, gold prices have not shown a significant reaction to this.
The accumulation of U.S. crude oil inventories continues to intensify. The latest API estimate shows that for the week ending November 14, U.S. crude oil inventories increased significantly by 4.4 million barrels, a substantial increase from the 1.3 million barrels added the previous week, clearly indicating an expansion trend.
Based on data from previous weeks and API data, Oilprice calculated that U.S. crude oil inventories have increased by a net 9.3 million barrels so far this year, with the total amount steadily rising.
Regarding strategic reserves, the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) disclosed earlier this week that, as of the week ending November 14, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 500,000 barrels to 410.9 million barrels.
This move is a targeted action by the government to replenish reserves that were drastically reduced during the Biden administration. It will affect the market supply and demand structure in the long term, but will have a limited impact on trading activity in the short term.
The pressure of easing on the supply side has become more pronounced. EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil production climbed to 13.862 million barrels per day in the week ending November 7, a net increase of 299,000 barrels per day since the beginning of the year, once again setting a new historical peak.
According to the International Energy Agency's recent forecasts, global oil supply growth in 2025 has been revised upwards to 2.5 million barrels per day, while demand growth forecasts have continued to be revised downwards. Against the backdrop of supply-demand imbalance, the continued surge in US production will exert long-term downward pressure on oil prices; this core logic requires close attention from traders.
In summary, Russia's response has dispelled previous concerns in the crude oil market about short-term tightness in delivery-side inventories and a shortage of refined product inventories. At the same time, the market faces long-term pressure from record-high US production, high global inventories, and supply-demand imbalances, leading to intensified competition between bulls and bears.
Traders need to closely monitor subsequent EIA full inventory reports, OPEC+ production cut policy developments, and changes in global demand data, be wary of the risk of a pullback after a short-term rebound, and rationally plan their positions and stop-loss strategies.
Oil prices have fallen sharply by more than 3% twice in six trading days, indicating strong bearish momentum. The long-term bearish fundamentals mean that every rebound may be a good selling point for crude oil, while chasing the price higher is an unwise market strategy.
The key support levels remain at 59.40 and 58.48, with 59.40 having been broken and now acting as a resistance level.
Therefore, the resistance levels are 59.75 and 59.40, and the support levels are 58.48 and below 57.30.
(Daily chart of US crude oil December futures contract, source: FX678)
At 21:33 Beijing time, the December futures contract for US crude oil was trading at $59.05 per barrel.
During trading, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister stated that despite US restrictions on two Russian oil companies, production plans were not affected, and domestic prices had even stabilized due to export restrictions, decreased demand, and refinery reopening, leading to a decline in retail crude oil prices.
Meanwhile, on November 19, 2025, the core data successively released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) outlined the complex pattern of the current crude oil market, characterized by "ample supply, inventory accumulation, and short-term price rebound," providing key decision-making references for crude oil traders.
Concerns about short-term crude oil supply shortages have been dispelled.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said on Wednesday that Russia may reach its OPEC+ production quota level by the end of 2025 or early 2026.
Russia adheres to the OPEC+ agreement, has no plans to voluntarily cut production, and has already made up for any overproduction in the past.
Maintaining its 2025 liquid hydrocarbon production forecast of 510 million tons demonstrates its confidence in the recovery of production capacity.
This also reflects that the US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have not affected actual production, and that discounts on Russian oil will gradually decrease and soon bottom out.
Another detail is that U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll has arrived in Ukraine and plans to meet with Russian representatives later. Meanwhile, a senior Ukrainian official stated that Ukraine has received "signals" regarding a series of proposals discussed by the U.S. and Russia aimed at ending the conflict, but Ukraine has not participated in the preparation of the proposals. This is a real negative factor for crude oil, but so far, gold prices have not shown a significant reaction to this.
On the inventory side, crude oil inventories continued to expand, while strategic reserves were steadily replenished.
The accumulation of U.S. crude oil inventories continues to intensify. The latest API estimate shows that for the week ending November 14, U.S. crude oil inventories increased significantly by 4.4 million barrels, a substantial increase from the 1.3 million barrels added the previous week, clearly indicating an expansion trend.
Based on data from previous weeks and API data, Oilprice calculated that U.S. crude oil inventories have increased by a net 9.3 million barrels so far this year, with the total amount steadily rising.
Regarding strategic reserves, the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) disclosed earlier this week that, as of the week ending November 14, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 500,000 barrels to 410.9 million barrels.
This move is a targeted action by the government to replenish reserves that were drastically reduced during the Biden administration. It will affect the market supply and demand structure in the long term, but will have a limited impact on trading activity in the short term.
On the supply side, US production hit a new high, highlighting the pressure for long-term easing.
The pressure of easing on the supply side has become more pronounced. EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil production climbed to 13.862 million barrels per day in the week ending November 7, a net increase of 299,000 barrels per day since the beginning of the year, once again setting a new historical peak.
According to the International Energy Agency's recent forecasts, global oil supply growth in 2025 has been revised upwards to 2.5 million barrels per day, while demand growth forecasts have continued to be revised downwards. Against the backdrop of supply-demand imbalance, the continued surge in US production will exert long-term downward pressure on oil prices; this core logic requires close attention from traders.
Trading Outlook: The battle between bulls and bears intensifies; be wary of pullback risks.
In summary, Russia's response has dispelled previous concerns in the crude oil market about short-term tightness in delivery-side inventories and a shortage of refined product inventories. At the same time, the market faces long-term pressure from record-high US production, high global inventories, and supply-demand imbalances, leading to intensified competition between bulls and bears.
Traders need to closely monitor subsequent EIA full inventory reports, OPEC+ production cut policy developments, and changes in global demand data, be wary of the risk of a pullback after a short-term rebound, and rationally plan their positions and stop-loss strategies.
Technical Analysis:
Oil prices have fallen sharply by more than 3% twice in six trading days, indicating strong bearish momentum. The long-term bearish fundamentals mean that every rebound may be a good selling point for crude oil, while chasing the price higher is an unwise market strategy.
The key support levels remain at 59.40 and 58.48, with 59.40 having been broken and now acting as a resistance level.
Therefore, the resistance levels are 59.75 and 59.40, and the support levels are 58.48 and below 57.30.
(Daily chart of US crude oil December futures contract, source: FX678)
At 21:33 Beijing time, the December futures contract for US crude oil was trading at $59.05 per barrel.
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