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[Caixin Futures: Short-Term Outlook for the Ferrous Metals Market, Cost Support and Macroeconomic Expectations Dominate the Market] ⑴ The off-season for steel demand is gradually approaching, and the current market trading focus is gradually shifting towards the macro level. With continued positive macroeconomic expectations and enhanced cost support from raw material restocking expectations, the overall market focus is expected to move upward. Technically, the rebar 2605 contract has broken through the 40-day and 60-day moving averages, and the short-term trend may continue its slightly bullish oscillating pattern. Operationally, it is recommended to maintain a buy-on-dips strategy. Going forward, it is crucial to pay close attention to the realization of macroeconomic policy expectations and the transmission of downstream restocking efforts to prices. ⑵ Global iron ore shipments remain high, while domestic pig iron production continues its high-level decline, and port inventories continue to accumulate, resulting in a relatively loose overall supply and demand situation. However, current steel mill imported ore inventories are low, and as the restocking window approaches, market restocking expectations are gradually strengthening, providing strong support for spot prices. In summary, the market is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with both support and resistance. The iron ore 01 contract may continue to oscillate within a specific range in the short term. (3) The first round of price reductions for coking coal spot prices has been fully implemented, resulting in weak market sentiment. Downstream purchasing activity is insufficient, coal mine shipments are under pressure, and inventories continue to accumulate. It will take time for the spot market to stabilize. From a timing perspective, as the coking coal price reductions begin to materialize, the expectation of stabilization in the coking coal spot market is approaching. Judging from the winter stockpiling and restocking pace, the stabilization of the coking coal spot market may not be far off. In terms of funding, the top 20 long positions in the coking coal 05 contract have increased slightly, while short positions have changed only slightly, resulting in a slightly bullish open interest structure. Operationally, it is recommended to take advantage of opportunities to establish short-term long positions in the coking coal 05 contract. (4) Currently, the raw material side is still in a state of concession, and coking profits continue to recover. Driven by profits, coking plants are gradually increasing their operating rates, while pig iron production continues to decline. Overall, coking coal presents a supply increase and demand decrease pattern, and the spot market still faces further pressure for price reductions. However, from the perspective of futures pricing, the coking coal 01 contract has already implied several rounds of spot price reduction expectations, and the market generally expects about two rounds of reductions, making the valuation of the 01 contract relatively low. With the expectation of spot price reductions gradually materializing, the downside potential for futures is limited, but the sustainability of the rebound still depends on restocking. (5) Factory operating rates have slightly decreased, while demand continues to recover slightly, but factory inventories continue to accumulate. Given the weak and stable manganese ore market and the anticipated price reductions for coking coal, cost support expectations are weakening, and the futures market may fluctuate in line with raw material prices in the short term. From a technical perspective, the manganese silicon 01 contract has rebounded back to its previous trading range; attention should be paid to whether this range is effectively broken.