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[Caixin Futures: Ferrous Metals Market Shows Divergent Trends, Awaits Winter Stockpiling Window] ⑴ The steel market exhibits a weak supply and demand pattern, with inventories continuing to decline and pressure somewhat easing. ⑵ As the off-season for demand arrives, market focus is gradually shifting to macroeconomic expectations. ⑶ Supported by macroeconomic policy expectations and steel mill production cuts, the market's center of gravity is expected to move upward. ⑷ Technically, the rebar 2605 contract fluctuated and closed higher, with support likely around 3135-3150. ⑸ In terms of capital flows, the top 20 long and short positions in the rebar and hot-rolled coil 05 contract mainly increased, with short positions increasing more significantly, resulting in a slightly bearish position structure. ⑹ Operationally, it is recommended to maintain a short-term buying strategy on pullbacks. The subsequent focus should be on the implementation of macroeconomic policies and the actual restocking pace of downstream industries to support prices. ⑺ Global iron ore shipments remain high, while domestic pig iron production continues to decline, port inventories are accumulating, and the overall supply and demand situation is shifting towards a more relaxed balance. (8) However, steel mills' imported iron ore inventories are low, and with the winter stockpiling window approaching, market expectations for restocking are gradually strengthening, providing support for spot prices. (9) Amidst a mix of bullish and bearish factors, the iron ore 01 contract is expected to fluctuate within the 785-810 range in the short term. (10) The first round of coking coal price reductions has been fully implemented, and further reductions are still expected. Market sentiment is weak, and downstream coking plants are mainly purchasing based on immediate needs, with no large-scale restocking plans. Intermediate companies are actively shipping, resulting in mixed price movements. (11) As coking coal price reductions begin to materialize, expectations for stabilization in coking coal spot prices are approaching. Combined with the approaching winter stockpiling window, the downside potential for prices may be limited. (12) In terms of funding, the top 20 short positions in the coking coal 05 contract have increased more significantly, with a bearish position structure. (13) Operationally, it is recommended to remain on the sidelines and wait for spot prices to stabilize before considering long positions in the coking coal 05 contract. The 1160-1170 support level for the coking coal 05 contract should be monitored. 14. Improved profits for coking plants boosted production enthusiasm, leading to a steady increase in coke output. 15. However, slower procurement by downstream steel mills put pressure on coke sales and led to inventory accumulation, resulting in a more relaxed supply-demand balance and continued downward pressure on spot prices. 16. However, the futures market already reflects expectations of approximately four rounds of price reductions in the coke 01 contract, while the market generally anticipates two to three rounds. The expected price reductions in the spot market have been largely priced in, resulting in relatively low valuations. 17. As spot price reductions begin to materialize, further downside potential in the futures market is limited. However, with restocking not yet underway, short-term rebound momentum remains weak, and the market may experience fluctuations. 18. Factory operating rates have slightly decreased, while demand continues to recover slightly. However, factory inventories continue to accumulate. Given the weak and stable manganese ore market and the anticipated price reductions in coke, cost support expectations are weakening, and the market may fluctuate in line with raw material prices in the short term. 19. From a technical perspective, the manganese silicon 01 contract remains within the previous trading range of 5700 to 5850. Attention should be paid to whether this range is effectively broken.