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[Caixin Futures: Recent Trends and Outlook for the Energy and Chemical Market] ⑴ From a driving perspective, the recent geopolitical situation has become more complex. ⑵ The US continues to intervene in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, but the effects are still not obvious, and the possibility of a short-term end to the conflict is unlikely. ⑶ The US National Security Strategy report positions the Western Hemisphere as a "core interest area" and a "homeland security area," increasing the probability of related military strikes, and geopolitical uncertainty supports oil prices. ⑷ Recently, crude oil prices have encountered pressure and fallen back between the 20- and 60-day moving averages, while downstream refined oil demand is weak and inventories have risen more than seasonally, suggesting that crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. ⑸ Crude oil is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. ⑹ The recent geopolitical situation has become more complex. The Russia-Ukraine peace talks are still ongoing, but a result is unlikely in the short term, increasing the probability of related military strikes. ⑺ Due to the continued expectation of reduced supply of high-sulfur fuel oil due to sanctions, but the probability of crude oil prices entering a fluctuating and weak pattern due to weakening downstream demand is relatively high, and fuel oil is expected to follow suit with fluctuations. ⑻ Fuel oil is expected to fluctuate. (9) Despite upstream production cuts, the market is concerned about an early rebound in prices, delays or cancellations of cold repair plans, and large midstream inventories, leading to a decline in the valuation of the May contract. (10) Overall, demand has weakened significantly year-on-year, losses have worsened, and expectations for float glass cold repairs and production conversions have strengthened, although market sentiment is not overly pessimistic. (11) Recent meetings have been held, with relatively positive statements such as "adhering to domestic demand as the main driver," and attention should be paid to the specific arrangements of subsequent economic work conferences. (12) Glass is recommended for short-term long positions on dips. (13) Expectations for float glass cold repairs have strengthened, and news indicates that the Alashan Phase II production line has been ignited, and a new production line at Yinghua Chemical will also be ignited, further highlighting supply and demand pressures. (14) On Monday, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers decreased by 36,100 tons compared to last Thursday. Today, the soda ash operating rate is 84.22%, with stable fluctuations. (15) Basis quotes show: Hebei warehouse delivery of the January contract is at a discount of 10 to 25, Shahe warehouse delivery of the January contract is at par, and Henan warehouse delivery of the January contract is at par. ⒃ Overall, the soda ash market is expected to reach a basic supply-demand balance thanks to maintenance support. However, the market is suppressed by expectations of supply recovery and overcapacity, suggesting a low-level consolidation strategy. ⒄ Short selling of soda ash is recommended on rallies. ⒅ On December 9th, the Shandong liquid soda ash market saw mixed price movements. Some companies, supported by low inventory levels, slightly increased prices by 10 yuan, while others continued to lower prices by 20 yuan/ton after previous high prices. ⒆ Overall, caustic soda is in a state of high supply and high inventory, with a weak market outlook continuing. Furthermore, the continued decline in alumina prices and strengthened expectations of production cuts suggest that caustic soda prices may remain weak and volatile.