Gold prices weakened while silver prices hit a record high, with the Fed's FOMC decision drawing anticipation.
2025-12-10 22:53:41
Gold prices edged lower in early U.S. trading on Wednesday (December 10). Silver prices rose, hitting another record high overnight. The market remained calm and in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this afternoon. February gold futures were trading at $4,229.1 per ounce, down $7.1; March silver futures were trading at $61.165 per ounce, up $0.325.
Global stock markets mostly weakened overnight. U.S. stock indices are expected to open slightly lower when trading begins in New York.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision this afternoon. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which began Tuesday morning, will conclude this afternoon, followed by the FOMC statement and a press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The market has already priced in a 0.25 percentage point rate cut, with a probability as high as 90%. However, the FOMC statement and Powell's guidance on the direction of Fed monetary policy will be the focus of close market attention today. Due to market concerns about sticky inflation, expectations are rising that the FOMC and Powell will adopt a more hawkish stance on Fed monetary policy.
Rising global bond yields suggest the central bank rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end. According to Bloomberg, global bond yields have risen to their highest levels since 2009, a signal that the rate-cutting cycle by major central banks may be nearing its end. Bloomberg's long-term government bond yield index has hit a 16-year high, and bets in the money market corroborate this view, with traders almost believing the European Central Bank will not cut rates further. The report states, "Bond investors are currently weighing the global economic growth outlook while closely watching the inflation risks amid trade tariffs and surging government debt. Even in the US, where a rate cut is expected today, the policy outlook is rapidly changing." "As investors anticipate a more challenging outlook for monetary policy, inflation, and fiscal discipline, the 30-year US Treasury yield has rebounded to a multi-month high. This market shift reflects a growing conviction that the rate-cutting cycle that began last year to stimulate economic growth and, in the process, propelled global stock markets to record highs and boosted bond prices is nearing its end."
China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit a 21-month high. The CPI rose 0.7% month-on-month in November, the highest level since February 2024, compared to a 0.2% increase in October. Food prices rose for the first time in 10 months, and non-food prices also rebounded. In contrast, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 2.2% year-on-year in November, a larger drop than the expected 2.0%.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will complete its Commitment of Traders (COT) reports by the end of this month. The CFTC stated in a press release on Tuesday that it will expedite the release of COT reports that were interrupted during the U.S. government shutdown. According to the revised timeline, the agency will clear the backlog of reports by December 29. Previously, the CFTC had projected that the data would not be updated until January 23, 2026. The press release stated, “Reports will continue to be released chronologically and at a higher frequency, while ensuring data integrity. This process is consistent with previous reporting methods following government shutdowns.” Click here to view the latest revised release timeline.
Key external market developments today: The US dollar index fell slightly; crude oil prices strengthened slightly, trading around $58.50 per barrel; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is currently at 4.20%.
Technical Analysis: For February gold futures, the next upside target for bulls is to push the closing price above the strong resistance level of $4433.00/oz, the contract high/historical record high; the near-term downside target for bears is to push the price below the strong technical support level of $4100.00/oz. The first resistance level is seen at this week's high of $4251.70/oz, followed by $4285.00/oz; the first support level is this week's overnight low of $4197.80/oz, followed by $4150.00/oz.
(COMEX silver daily chart source: FX678)
For March silver futures, the daily chart shows a breakout from the bullish flag pattern, indicating an upward breakout. The bulls' next upside target is to push the closing price above the strong technical resistance level of $65.00/oz; the bears' next downside target is to push the closing price below the strong support level of $57.00/oz. The first resistance level is seen at the overnight contract high/all-time high of $62.14/oz, followed by $63.00/oz; the next support level is at $60.00/oz, followed by $59.00/oz.
Global stock markets mostly weakened overnight. U.S. stock indices are expected to open slightly lower when trading begins in New York.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision this afternoon. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which began Tuesday morning, will conclude this afternoon, followed by the FOMC statement and a press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The market has already priced in a 0.25 percentage point rate cut, with a probability as high as 90%. However, the FOMC statement and Powell's guidance on the direction of Fed monetary policy will be the focus of close market attention today. Due to market concerns about sticky inflation, expectations are rising that the FOMC and Powell will adopt a more hawkish stance on Fed monetary policy.
Rising global bond yields suggest the central bank rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end. According to Bloomberg, global bond yields have risen to their highest levels since 2009, a signal that the rate-cutting cycle by major central banks may be nearing its end. Bloomberg's long-term government bond yield index has hit a 16-year high, and bets in the money market corroborate this view, with traders almost believing the European Central Bank will not cut rates further. The report states, "Bond investors are currently weighing the global economic growth outlook while closely watching the inflation risks amid trade tariffs and surging government debt. Even in the US, where a rate cut is expected today, the policy outlook is rapidly changing." "As investors anticipate a more challenging outlook for monetary policy, inflation, and fiscal discipline, the 30-year US Treasury yield has rebounded to a multi-month high. This market shift reflects a growing conviction that the rate-cutting cycle that began last year to stimulate economic growth and, in the process, propelled global stock markets to record highs and boosted bond prices is nearing its end."
China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit a 21-month high. The CPI rose 0.7% month-on-month in November, the highest level since February 2024, compared to a 0.2% increase in October. Food prices rose for the first time in 10 months, and non-food prices also rebounded. In contrast, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 2.2% year-on-year in November, a larger drop than the expected 2.0%.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will complete its Commitment of Traders (COT) reports by the end of this month. The CFTC stated in a press release on Tuesday that it will expedite the release of COT reports that were interrupted during the U.S. government shutdown. According to the revised timeline, the agency will clear the backlog of reports by December 29. Previously, the CFTC had projected that the data would not be updated until January 23, 2026. The press release stated, “Reports will continue to be released chronologically and at a higher frequency, while ensuring data integrity. This process is consistent with previous reporting methods following government shutdowns.” Click here to view the latest revised release timeline.
Key external market developments today: The US dollar index fell slightly; crude oil prices strengthened slightly, trading around $58.50 per barrel; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is currently at 4.20%.
Technical Analysis: For February gold futures, the next upside target for bulls is to push the closing price above the strong resistance level of $4433.00/oz, the contract high/historical record high; the near-term downside target for bears is to push the price below the strong technical support level of $4100.00/oz. The first resistance level is seen at this week's high of $4251.70/oz, followed by $4285.00/oz; the first support level is this week's overnight low of $4197.80/oz, followed by $4150.00/oz.
(COMEX silver daily chart source: FX678)
For March silver futures, the daily chart shows a breakout from the bullish flag pattern, indicating an upward breakout. The bulls' next upside target is to push the closing price above the strong technical resistance level of $65.00/oz; the bears' next downside target is to push the closing price below the strong support level of $57.00/oz. The first resistance level is seen at the overnight contract high/all-time high of $62.14/oz, followed by $63.00/oz; the next support level is at $60.00/oz, followed by $59.00/oz.
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