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2025-12-12 18:12:29
[Global Yield Spread Map: The Huge "Gravity" of 2-Year US Treasury Yields and the Deep Trough in Europe and Japan] ⑴ Currently, there is a significant divergence in core global government bond yields. Using the 2-year benchmark, the US Treasury yield is 3.545%, which is relatively high among major economies. ⑵ In contrast, the German 2-year government bond yield is only 2.177%, meaning investors holding US 2-year Treasury bonds can obtain an additional yield spread of up to 136.8 basis points. ⑶ Yield "highlands" are found in Australia and the UK, with 2-year yields reaching 4.032% and 3.789% respectively, both significantly higher than the US. ⑷ Yield "lowlands" are concentrated in Japan and some European countries. Japan's 2-year yield is only 1.071%, 247.4 basis points lower than the US; yields in Denmark and Germany are also far lower than those in the US. (5) Looking at 10-year Treasury bonds, the pattern is similar, but the spread has narrowed. The US 10-year yield is 4.172%, still significantly higher than Germany's 2.860% and Japan's 1.955%, but the premium relative to the UK (4.500%) and Australia (4.747%) has narrowed. (6) This huge interest rate differential constitutes the core logic of current global capital flows, exchange rate fluctuations, and carry trades, and strongly constrains the policy space of central banks around the world.
