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2025-12-12 18:18:20
[A Sovereign Debt Winter is Approaching: Fiscal Expansion and Resilient Economies are Reshaping Global Pricing Anchors] ⑴ Wellington Investment Management's investment managers stated in a report that their base case forecast is that global bond yields will gradually rise throughout 2026. ⑵ The core logic behind this judgment is that continued expansionary fiscal policies globally, coupled with resilient economic fundamentals, are expected to jointly drive up risk premiums across the entire bond market. ⑶ The report acknowledges that despite signs of weakening labor markets, these forces will still dominate the upward trend in yields. ⑷ Productivity improvements, particularly the development of artificial intelligence technology, may partially offset upward pressure on yields, but the timing of this effect is highly uncertain. ⑸ A key uncertainty lies in whether technological advancements such as artificial intelligence can effectively mitigate the negative impacts of increasing global trade restrictions and a deteriorating demographic structure. ⑹ This view points to a fundamental shift in global macroeconomic policy: fiscal policy is replacing monetary policy as the more dominant force influencing long-term interest rates and asset pricing.
