Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued their strong performance during Monday's Asian trading session, attracting bargain hunters and rising to around $4,326, a new high since October 21.

Market sentiment was generally bullish, primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy and a decline in global risk appetite. From a monetary policy perspective, the Federal Reserve announced its third and final interest rate cut of the year last week, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%.

As inflation gradually declines, the market is beginning to price in the possibility of further interest rate cuts next year. Lower interest rates mean a lower opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, a logic that continues to support gold prices.

At the same time, rising macroeconomic uncertainty has also strengthened gold's safe-haven appeal. Recent unexpected security incidents have triggered risk aversion in the market, causing some funds to flow into safe-haven assets such as gold. Given that the US dollar has not yet shown a clear upward trend, this inflow has had a significant impact on gold prices.

However, differing opinions remain within the Federal Reserve regarding the policy path. Some officials believe that further rate cuts require more confirmation, given the delayed release of key economic data due to the government shutdown.

Some officials also emphasized that interest rates should be kept sufficiently tight to ensure that inflationary pressures remain under control. This has somewhat dampened market expectations for a "rapid easing cycle."

Looking ahead, the delayed release of US non-farm payroll data and speeches by several Fed officials will be key factors influencing the short-term direction of gold prices. If policy signals are hawkish, the US dollar may rebound temporarily, thus putting downward pressure on gold.

From the daily chart, gold is still in an overall upward channel: Trend structure: The price is steadily moving within the medium-term upward channel, with the lows constantly rising, indicating that the bullish trend has not been broken; Pay attention to the selling pressure near the previous high of $4360 and the psychological level. If it breaks through with volume, it may open up further upside potential.

The first support level to watch is around $4230, a cluster of short-term moving averages. A break below this level could trigger a technical pullback. Momentum indicators: Some technical indicators are nearing high levels, suggesting short-term volatility or profit-taking pressure. Overall, the technical outlook is bullish, but chasing highs is not advisable. Prices are more likely to consolidate at higher levels, digesting previous gains.

Editor's Note:

Based on a comprehensive assessment of both fundamentals and technical factors, gold is currently in a phase of "medium-term upward trend, short-term high-level consolidation." Expectations of interest rate cuts and safe-haven demand provide solid support for gold prices, but before key data and policy statements become clearer, gold prices are more likely to complete their adjustment through high-level consolidation rather than a one-sided upward movement.