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[Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: A Complex Situation Tests the Fed's Rate Cut Decision] 1. The highly anticipated US non-farm payrolls report will be released on Tuesday, December 16th at 21:30 Beijing time, covering both October and November data. Due to data collection delays caused by the federal government shutdown this fall, October's overall non-farm payrolls are expected to show negative growth (a decrease of 10,000 jobs), mainly due to a significant reduction of approximately 130,000 federal sector jobs. This loss was not directly caused by the shutdown, but rather stemmed from the deferred resignation program introduced by the DOGE (Department for Government Efficiency) at the beginning of the year, which many federal employees opted for. 2. The market has strong expectations for a rebound in employment in November, with economists' median forecast predicting approximately 50,000 new jobs. However, forecasts vary widely, with some analysts expecting even higher growth, reaching an upper limit of 127,000, while the lower limit could be as low as -20,000. This wide fluctuation is mainly due to the government shutdown combined with DOGE layoffs, which significantly interferes with federal employment data and could easily distort the report. 3. Regarding the unemployment rate, this release may lack complete household survey data for October. The sample used for the November unemployment rate was collected at the end of the shutdown, and some furloughed federal employees may have been included in the unemployment figures. Therefore, the November unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.6% or 4.7% temporarily, but is expected to fall back to near September levels of 4.4%-4.5% in the following months. 4. Overall, the US labor market is at a critical juncture. While this report partially reflects the employment situation, the data anomalies make it difficult to present a complete picture. Other indicators, such as the continued rise in initial jobless claims, the weak ADP private sector employment report, and the stagnant hiring rate despite a recovery in job openings, with many companies adopting a "neither hiring nor laying off" wait-and-see approach, clearly indicate a slowdown in job growth. Future trends depend on whether the economy regains strength in 2026; if the recovery exceeds expectations, employment may rebound significantly. 5. Given data collection and technical issues, the market is likely to downplay the impact of the October employment and November unemployment rates, focusing instead on the November non-farm payrolls data. If November's data significantly exceeds expectations, it will not only indicate an accelerating economy but also influence the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting path next year. Currently, the market is pricing in two more rate cuts before September next year, but the Fed itself predicts only one. If employment figures exceed expectations, market sentiment may align with the Fed's, and the dollar is likely to strengthen.