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[When Inventory Rebound Meets Structural Gap, the Divergence in Base Metals is Accelerating] ⑴ In the early hours of December 17th, Beijing time, several metal supply and demand assessments from international investment banks were released. The core keyword was not "demand collapse," but rather structural divergence and misaligned timing. ⑵ Copper's logic is the most stringent, with an estimated gap of approximately 260,000 tons in 2025, widening to approximately 600,000 tons in 2026. Given limited inventory and capacity flexibility, the market's tolerance for any disturbances has significantly decreased. ⑶ This assessment reinforces the expectation that copper prices will remain "unyielding at high levels." Price fluctuations are more driven by changes in timing than trend reversals, and the market's sensitivity to supply-side news has been significantly amplified. ⑷ Nickel presents a completely different picture, with both supply and demand expanding simultaneously. The price center has been pulled back to the cost and efficiency range, with a target level of around $15,500 per ton in 2026. Its trend attributes are weaker than its structural attributes. (5) Zinc's pressure mainly stems from a rebound in visible inventories. With increased exports from some regions and continued growth in mine supply in 2026, prices have room for a moderate decline, with a target range close to $2,900 per ton. (6) Similar to zinc but more stable is lead. Demand lacks explosive variables, and supply has not contracted significantly. The average price in 2026 is anchored at slightly above $2,000 per ton. (7) In a horizontal comparison, copper's contradiction lies in the "not negligible gap," while nickel, zinc, and lead are more characterized by "balance or looseness," which determines the differences in risk appetite among funds for different metals. (8) For the market, this divergence means that market trends are no longer suitable for explanation using a single macroeconomic narrative, but rather revolve around the interplay of inventories, supply elasticity, and expectation management.