U.S. government officials indicated on Monday (December 15) that the likelihood of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine may be higher than ever before.

"We believe we have likely resolved 90% of the issues between Ukraine and Russia, really 90%, but there are still some details that need further negotiation," a U.S. official said in a phone briefing with reporters.



U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that U.S. Special Envoy Steve Vitkov, businessman Jared Kushner (son-in-law of U.S. President Donald Trump), and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held in-depth discussions in Berlin on the peace plan proposed by the U.S.

According to US officials, a potential peace agreement brokered by US officials and European allies over the weekend includes: providing strong security guarantees for Ukraine based on NATO Article 5; initiating reconstruction efforts in Ukraine; and establishing deterrence measures and punitive provisions against any new dangerous actions by Russia.

Officials added that Russia has indicated it is open to Ukraine joining the European Union.

Officials said the details were agreed upon at the “working level” during discussions between NATO, Ukraine, and the United States in Berlin, but still require final approval from the highest levels in Washington, Ukraine, and Russia.

Officials suggested that Russia might "accept all of these terms," but further discussions were needed. The official stated, "We believe Russia will ultimately accept all of these terms, which will ensure a strong and free Ukraine."

U.S. officials said the peace talks with Ukraine in Berlin last Sunday and Monday, which lasted nearly eight hours in closed-door negotiations, were “very, very positive.”

Officials said that the parties have reached consensus on several issues and have conducted in-depth discussions on all the details of the revised 20-point peace plan.

The U.S. official stated, "We have reached consensus on a range of key issues that are crucial to reaching a peace agreement. While some issues remain to be discussed, we have discussed the full scope of the 20-point plan and made very, very positive progress."

According to US officials, Trump has been briefed twice and he expressed satisfaction with the current progress.

Despite the more optimistic view from the U.S. side regarding the progress of the negotiations, Zelensky stated in his briefing that the discussions with the U.S. were "not easy but productive."

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Monday that he believes the warring parties are "on the verge" of resolving the conflict through diplomatic means.

Speaking about the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ryabkov said, "We are ready to reach an agreement." The deputy foreign minister added that he hoped the agreement could be reached "as soon as possible, rather than delayed."

Ukraine Security Guarantee Agreement

Regarding details of security guarantees in Ukraine, US officials stated that the specifics are still under discussion, but confirmed that sending US ground troops to Ukraine is not within the scope of the discussion.

Officials added that such a security agreement modeled after NATO's Article 5 would likely require approval from the U.S. Senate to be legally binding, and that "President Trump is willing to push for it"—demonstrating a significant U.S. commitment to protecting Ukraine from further Russian attacks.

U.S. officials said, "President Trump believes he can get Russia to accept a safeguard mechanism similar to NATO's Article 5." The official called the likelihood that Ukraine will not insist on joining NATO a "key factor" that prompted Russia to agree.

The official pointed out that any potential violations of the security agreement will be addressed in the final plan. The official added, "All issues we believe need to be addressed to ensure the safety of the Ukrainian people are included in this plan."

Territorial negotiations are still ongoing.

Regarding the territorial issue, an official stated, "We have made considerable progress in narrowing the differences between Ukraine and Russia."

Officials did not provide further details but said Zelensky would discuss the territorial issue with his team. One official stated, “We presented him with some—what I call—thought-provoking ideas. He needs to give us feedback, and after his response, we have a responsibility to communicate this with our Russian and European partners. You can hear that we are very satisfied with the progress made, including on the territorial issue.”

Zelensky told reporters on Monday that he believes progress is being made on security issues, but the territorial issue "is a painful issue because Russia insists on its claims, and we can no longer back down."

He stated, "We know exactly what they want. Some people may believe it, some may not, but we are 100% certain of their intentions."

Ukraine's post-war reconstruction work

Regarding reconstruction in Ukraine, an official stated that plans have been developed to help people return to their homes and establish a "transparent government." The official added that asset management firm BlackRock and the World Bank are collaborating to gather best practices from various countries, and that Europe appears poised to provide strong financial support for this endeavor.

An official mentioned in the call that the United States is close to getting Russia and Ukraine to reach a 50/50 agreement on the ownership of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant.

Officials involved in the call said Russia is open to Ukraine joining the European Union, which would be the largest expansion of the eurozone since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Officials also stated that they hope the framework of the agreement will bring a "prosperous future" for Europe and Russia. One official said, "We have long recognized that there are no permanent allies or permanent enemies. Perhaps by establishing a proper framework through this agreement, we can open new paths forward, enabling Europe and Russia to finally reach a consensus and arrangements that will bring a more peaceful and prosperous future for all parties."

Next steps

The official said, "I think it's great that President Trump will address the leaders by phone—it's a very good thing and it shows how much he cares about this conflict."

Officials added that more meetings may be held in the United States next weekend—most likely in Miami.

The official emphasized, "We are tasked with doing everything in our power to promote a lasting and stable peace between Ukraine and the Russian Federation on behalf of President Trump. We will go all out if necessary."

Impact analysis on the oil market

All current price pressures on crude oil are based on "expectations." Key risks lurking in the text—the irreconcilable nature of the territorial issue, the complexity of final ratification of the agreement, and Ukraine's doubts about the actual effectiveness of security guarantees—mean that these expectations could be disproven.

Therefore, traders will repeatedly weigh the "hope for peace" against the "real obstacles," resulting in a weak trading pattern amid high oil price volatility. On Tuesday, US crude oil prices touched a near five-year low of $54.98 per barrel, but on Wednesday, prices were supported by bargain hunting, rising by approximately 1.65%.



(US crude oil daily chart, source: FX678)

At 14:11 Beijing time, US crude oil futures were trading at $56.06 per barrel.