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[Caixin Futures: Non-ferrous Metals Market Shows Volatility and Divergence, Focus on Macroeconomic Factors and Supply-Demand Game] ⑴ On the macro front, US November non-farm payroll data met expectations, but the unemployment rate climbed to a new high since September 2021. Market expectations of interest rate cuts and recessionary events continue to clash, resulting in a generally volatile but slightly bullish trend for copper prices. On the fundamental front, according to industry sources, effective market supply is ample, and holders are actively selling, but their willingness to sell is expected to weaken after delivery. The strategy is to primarily buy on dips. ⑵ In the zinc market, the macroeconomic background is similar to that of the copper market. On the fundamental front, zinc concentrate processing fees continue to decline, smelter profits are affected, reducing their willingness to produce. Domestic zinc ingot inventories continue to decrease, providing support on the supply side, leading to a short-term price bullish trend. In the long term, with increased supply and stable demand, the zinc supply-demand balance tends to have a surplus. The realization of the current surplus expectation depends on further transmission from the mining end to the smelting end, limiting the long-term upside potential for zinc prices. ⑶ Precious metals generally show a bullish trend. In the long term, precious metal prices remain supported, and the strategy is to buy on dips. Given the recent sharp price fluctuations, investors should exercise caution and avoid chasing highs and selling lows. (4) Alumina prices have rebounded recently, but the fundamentals remain in a state of oversupply. Some high-cost enterprises are already facing losses, but there has been no large-scale production cut, and inventories are still accumulating. Furthermore, approximately 9 million tons of domestic capacity is expected to come online in 2026, making it difficult to improve the overall oversupply situation. (5) The alumina market is unlikely to see a trend reversal in the short term; short-term participation in a rebound-selling strategy is advisable. Future attention should be paid to whether production enterprises will reduce production due to losses, and to guard against unexpected shocks from the supply side. (6) Market sentiment has cooled somewhat on the macro front, and Shanghai aluminum has seen a certain pullback. The fundamentals show stable supply, gradually weakening demand, and continued inventory accumulation, offering limited support for prices. (7) However, given the generally bullish domestic and international macro environment, coupled with expectations of tightening overseas supply, the medium- to long-term upward trend for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum remains unchanged. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips after the market stabilizes following the pullback. The future trend of domestic demand and inventory should be monitored. (8) The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau issued a public notice regarding the cancellation of 27 mining rights. Although the mining projects involved have all expired and have no substantial impact on supply, this move has triggered market concerns about lithium resource supply, leading to a significant surge in lithium carbonate futures today, forming a strong breakout. (9) In the short term, supported by delayed resumption of production, market supply concerns, and positive demand expectations, lithium carbonate futures may maintain a slightly upward trend. However, caution is advised regarding the risk of a pullback after a sharp rise. The strategy should focus on buying on dips. (10) In the medium to long term, lithium carbonate is expected to maintain a balance between supply and demand in 2026, with a slight increase in the price center. Subsequent monitoring should focus on the progress of project resumption, the follow-up developments of mine shutdowns, and the pace of changes in lithium carbonate production and inventory.