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2025-12-18 20:13:17

[Disagreements are glaringly obvious: Bank of England meeting minutes reveal heated debate between doves and hawks on the logic of rate cuts] ⑴ The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a narrow majority of 5 to 4 to cut the bank's interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%, with four members voting to keep the rate at 4%. ⑵ Since the last meeting, CPI inflation has fallen to 3.2%, still above the 2% target, but is now expected to fall back to near the target more quickly in the near term. ⑶ The Committee believes that the risks of persistently high inflation have become less apparent, while the downside risks to inflation from weak demand remain. ⑷ Monetary policy is set to ensure that CPI inflation remains sustainably stable at 2% over the medium term, which requires balancing the risks to achieving this target. ⑸ Based on current evidence, bank interest rates are likely to continue along a gradual downward path, but judgments regarding further policy easing will become more difficult. (6) Members supporting rate cuts (Bailey, Briden, Dingela, Ramsden, Taylor) believe that the anti-inflation process is proceeding smoothly, upside risks are receding, and weak economic activity and accumulated slack in the labor market support easing. (7) Bailey points out that the key issue is whether inflation can remain stable at the 2% target. Although there is no conclusive evidence of a sharp deterioration in the labor market, vigilance is needed, and as interest rates approach neutral levels, future policy space is more limited. (8) Members opposing rate cuts and supporting maintaining interest rates (Green, Lombardy, Mann, Peel) are more concerned about the risk of persistent inflation stickiness, believing that forward-looking indicators such as service inflation, wage growth, and inflation expectations are still above the target level, and the monetary policy stance may not be strict enough. (9) Specifically, Peel believes that the risk of inflation stabilizing above the target due to structural changes is greater than the risk of inflation falling below the target due to weak demand. (10) The meeting minutes revealed in detail the deep disagreements within the committee regarding the inflation outlook, the uncertainty of the neutral interest rate, and the effectiveness of policy transmission, indicating that future interest rate decision-making will be highly dependent on data, and that every step will be a difficult trade-off.

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