Global Markets Focus: Multiple Markets Enter "Key Resistance Zones," Tonight's Data Could Trigger a Chain Reaction
2026-01-14 20:30:21
On Wednesday (January 14), global financial markets diverged under the pull of multiple forces. The sudden escalation of tensions in the Middle East injected strong safe-haven demand into crude oil and precious metals, while unexpected developments in Japanese politics dominated Asian markets, particularly the sharp fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate. Meanwhile, market participants turned their attention to the upcoming flurry of US economic data and speeches by several Federal Reserve officials, seeking clear clues about the path of monetary policy. The bond market took a breather after recent yield increases, while the US dollar index consolidated slightly at high levels. Tonight, PPI and retail sales data will take over, becoming the latest litmus test for assessing the resilience of the US economy and the stickiness of inflation.
International oil prices continued to climb after a sharp overnight gain, becoming the leading gainer in the market today. Currently, Brent crude oil futures are trading at $66.05 per barrel, up 0.66% on the day; WTI crude oil futures are trading at $61.46 per barrel, up 0.53% on the day. This surge is mainly due to the sharp escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
From a fundamental perspective, the situation in Iran is currently the most crucial driving factor. Reports indicate that Iran has warned its neighbors in the region that it will attack US military bases within their borders if the US launches a strike. This statement has pushed regional tensions to a new critical point. Meanwhile, diplomatic sources have revealed that some personnel have been advised to evacuate from the main US airbase in Qatar. Although there has been no large-scale troop movement yet, market concerns about supply disruptions have significantly intensified. Recent tough rhetoric from former US President Trump, including threats to impose tariffs on countries doing business with Iran, has further exacerbated market uncertainty. This "economic confrontation" has been identified as a primary global risk by a well-known institution, and its impact is rapidly spreading through the energy market.
From a technical perspective, both major crude oil contracts have strengthened momentum after breaking through the upper edge of their recent trading range. For the WTI crude oil futures contract, the $61/barrel level has transformed from previous resistance into initial support, with key support below at the psychological level of $60/barrel and the previous trading range. Resistance is seen around $62.50/barrel, a significant retracement level from the downtrend in the fourth quarter of last year. Close attention should be paid to any news regarding US military movements or easing tensions with Iran, as any escalation or de-escalation could trigger significant two-way volatility in oil prices. Traders should also be wary that if the situation does not escalate into actual conflict, the rapidly accumulating risk premium may face selling pressure.
The precious metals market shone brightly today, with spot gold and silver prices both surging to record highs. Spot gold is currently trading at $4,635.79 per ounce, up 1.08% on the day; silver prices rose even more sharply, gaining over 4% on the day. The forces driving the surge in precious metals prices are multifaceted.
First, escalating geopolitical risks, such as those related to the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have fueled strong demand for safe-haven assets, highlighting gold's traditional safe-haven properties. Second, market disagreements persist regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path, leading to continued uncertainty. While recent economic data shows resilience, whether inflation can successfully fall back to target levels remains unknown. This uncertainty weakens the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets and enhances the allocation value of non-interest-bearing gold. Finally, analysts from well-known institutions have pointed out that while the investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman has drawn defenses from several central bank governors and bank executives, the matter, at a delicate juncture, has still raised some concerns about central bank independence, indirectly benefiting gold.
From a technical perspective, gold has opened up new upward space after breaking through the previous high, demonstrating strong momentum. The formation of the current historical high itself constitutes a technical breakout signal. For spot gold, $4600/oz has transformed from a strong resistance level into a key psychological support. Further support can be seen at $4550/oz, the consolidation platform before the breakout. Given that the price is at an absolute historical high, there are no clear historical technical resistance levels above, but profit-taking after extreme overbought conditions should be watched closely. Intraday focus should be on the movement of the US dollar index, changes in the real yield of US Treasury bonds, and any unexpected geopolitical news, as these will be key factors influencing the short-term volatility of gold prices.
The foreign exchange market is heavily focused on the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 157.639, a slight pullback from the overnight 18-month high of 159.45, down 0.29% on the day, but the overall downward trend remains unchanged. The yen's sharp fluctuations stem directly from domestic political events in Japan. The news that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to call a snap election is widely interpreted by the market as negative for the yen. Analysts from several institutions point out that if her Liberal Democratic Party wins a majority of seats, it is more likely to implement a combination of ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policies, further depressing the yen's exchange rate. Some analysts even believe that, considering Japan's inflation is likely to remain moderate in the first quarter, the window for USD/JPY to rise to the 160-162 range is opening.
However, the market's one-sided bets are also constrained by another expectation: the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening in the foreign exchange market near the 160 level to support the yen . This potential intervention risk made the USD/JPY pair hesitant near 160, with some short covering causing the exchange rate to fall from its highs. For USD/JPY, the 159.50-160.00 area constitutes a strong psychological and policy resistance zone, and any test of this area could trigger significant volatility. Initial support is around 157.00, followed by the area around yesterday's low of 156.20. Intraday traders must remain highly vigilant for any verbal warnings or actual intervention from Japanese Ministry of Finance officials.
The US dollar index itself is consolidating at high levels, currently trading at 99.0790, down slightly by 0.1% on the day. The dollar's movement is influenced by two opposing forces: on one hand, safe-haven inflows driven by geopolitical risks, and on the other hand, cautious market sentiment ahead of key data releases. Other major currencies, such as the euro, have seen relatively limited volatility as the market awaits direction from US data.
The U.S. Treasury market saw a slight pullback today after a significant rise in yields recently, as the market adjusted positions ahead of key economic data releases. According to the latest quotes, the 2-year Treasury yield was 3.516%, and the 10-year yield was 4.156%. The yield curve (2s/10s) has steepened slightly to approximately 64 basis points.
From a fundamental perspective, the market is attempting to balance multiple factors: continued economic resilience, persistent inflationary pressures, a complex geopolitical situation, and political noise surrounding the Federal Reserve. One analyst points out that tonight's producer price index data will help form a more complete picture of inflation, and any major surprises could trigger volatility across asset classes. Furthermore, five senior Federal Reserve officials will speak today in various settings, including those with hawkish and dovish stances; their remarks will be carefully analyzed to capture any subtle signals regarding the path of interest rates.
From a technical perspective, the 10-year Treasury yield has temporarily stalled after hitting recent highs, with the 4.18%-4.20% area forming strong short-term resistance. A successful breakout could open up room for further gains. Support levels to watch are first at 4.14%-4.15%, then at the 4.10% level. Intraday focus should be on PPI data, particularly the core PPI excluding food and energy, and the strength of consumer demand reflected in retail sales data. Furthermore, a large volume of Treasury bond auctions and repurchase operations may also impact market liquidity and short-term prices.
Tonight, market attention will be focused on a series of US economic data and events:
1. Economic Data: The US November PPI and retail sales data, released at 21:30 Beijing time, are of paramount importance. The market expects PPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month and retail sales to rise 0.4% month-on-month. Any data exceeding expectations, especially those showing rising inflationary pressures or strong consumer spending, could reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain high for a longer period, boosting the US dollar and US Treasury yields, and potentially putting pressure on risk assets and gold prices. Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, it could trigger the opposite market trend.
2. Speeches by Federal Reserve Officials: Starting at 22:50 Beijing time, several Federal Reserve officials will deliver speeches. The remarks of Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (hawkish), Fed Governor Milan (dovish), and New York Fed President Williams (centrist) are particularly noteworthy . During periods when markets are sensitive to the policy outlook, any statements regarding economic assessments or policy stances can trigger market volatility.
3. Geopolitical developments: Any new developments in the situation in Iran, including responses from the United States and dynamics among regional countries, could impact markets at any time, particularly crude oil and gold.
4. Other events: The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book at 3:00 AM Beijing time the following day, providing a qualitative description of the economic conditions in various regions. Additionally, the U.S. Supreme Court may release its ruling today on the legality of tariffs imposed during former President Trump's administration, the outcome of which could influence future trade policy expectations.
Looking ahead, the market may enter a phase of two-way volatility driven by both data and events. Crude oil prices are highly dependent on the evolution of the Middle East situation. If tensions persist or even escalate, risk premiums are likely to remain, and oil prices may stay strong; however, if there are signs of easing tensions, oil prices may face a rapid correction. After reaching record highs, precious metals may continue to be supported by technical buying and safe-haven demand, but the risk of a pullback due to a stronger dollar or a significant rise in real interest rates should be noted.
The yen exchange rate is currently caught in a tug-of-war between expectations of domestic easing policies and the threat of official intervention. The struggle around the 160 level for USD/JPY will be exceptionally fierce, and volatility may increase dramatically. The direction of the US dollar index will largely depend on tonight's and subsequent US economic data. If the data remains strong, the dollar may resume its upward trend; conversely, it may face downward pressure. Whether bond yields can continue their upward trend will depend on the performance of inflation data and the interpretation of the latest data by Federal Reserve officials.
Overall, amid a host of uncertainties, market sentiment is likely to remain sensitive, and cross-asset correlations may strengthen under the theme of risk aversion.
Crude oil: Geopolitical risk premiums rebounded rapidly, and oil prices broke through key resistance.
International oil prices continued to climb after a sharp overnight gain, becoming the leading gainer in the market today. Currently, Brent crude oil futures are trading at $66.05 per barrel, up 0.66% on the day; WTI crude oil futures are trading at $61.46 per barrel, up 0.53% on the day. This surge is mainly due to the sharp escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
From a fundamental perspective, the situation in Iran is currently the most crucial driving factor. Reports indicate that Iran has warned its neighbors in the region that it will attack US military bases within their borders if the US launches a strike. This statement has pushed regional tensions to a new critical point. Meanwhile, diplomatic sources have revealed that some personnel have been advised to evacuate from the main US airbase in Qatar. Although there has been no large-scale troop movement yet, market concerns about supply disruptions have significantly intensified. Recent tough rhetoric from former US President Trump, including threats to impose tariffs on countries doing business with Iran, has further exacerbated market uncertainty. This "economic confrontation" has been identified as a primary global risk by a well-known institution, and its impact is rapidly spreading through the energy market.
From a technical perspective, both major crude oil contracts have strengthened momentum after breaking through the upper edge of their recent trading range. For the WTI crude oil futures contract, the $61/barrel level has transformed from previous resistance into initial support, with key support below at the psychological level of $60/barrel and the previous trading range. Resistance is seen around $62.50/barrel, a significant retracement level from the downtrend in the fourth quarter of last year. Close attention should be paid to any news regarding US military movements or easing tensions with Iran, as any escalation or de-escalation could trigger significant two-way volatility in oil prices. Traders should also be wary that if the situation does not escalate into actual conflict, the rapidly accumulating risk premium may face selling pressure.
Precious metals: Safe-haven demand and monetary policy uncertainty resonate, driving gold and silver to record highs.
The precious metals market shone brightly today, with spot gold and silver prices both surging to record highs. Spot gold is currently trading at $4,635.79 per ounce, up 1.08% on the day; silver prices rose even more sharply, gaining over 4% on the day. The forces driving the surge in precious metals prices are multifaceted.
First, escalating geopolitical risks, such as those related to the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have fueled strong demand for safe-haven assets, highlighting gold's traditional safe-haven properties. Second, market disagreements persist regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path, leading to continued uncertainty. While recent economic data shows resilience, whether inflation can successfully fall back to target levels remains unknown. This uncertainty weakens the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets and enhances the allocation value of non-interest-bearing gold. Finally, analysts from well-known institutions have pointed out that while the investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman has drawn defenses from several central bank governors and bank executives, the matter, at a delicate juncture, has still raised some concerns about central bank independence, indirectly benefiting gold.
From a technical perspective, gold has opened up new upward space after breaking through the previous high, demonstrating strong momentum. The formation of the current historical high itself constitutes a technical breakout signal. For spot gold, $4600/oz has transformed from a strong resistance level into a key psychological support. Further support can be seen at $4550/oz, the consolidation platform before the breakout. Given that the price is at an absolute historical high, there are no clear historical technical resistance levels above, but profit-taking after extreme overbought conditions should be watched closely. Intraday focus should be on the movement of the US dollar index, changes in the real yield of US Treasury bonds, and any unexpected geopolitical news, as these will be key factors influencing the short-term volatility of gold prices.
Foreign exchange market: The yen plunged due to domestic political shocks, while the dollar consolidated at high levels.
The foreign exchange market is heavily focused on the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 157.639, a slight pullback from the overnight 18-month high of 159.45, down 0.29% on the day, but the overall downward trend remains unchanged. The yen's sharp fluctuations stem directly from domestic political events in Japan. The news that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to call a snap election is widely interpreted by the market as negative for the yen. Analysts from several institutions point out that if her Liberal Democratic Party wins a majority of seats, it is more likely to implement a combination of ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policies, further depressing the yen's exchange rate. Some analysts even believe that, considering Japan's inflation is likely to remain moderate in the first quarter, the window for USD/JPY to rise to the 160-162 range is opening.
However, the market's one-sided bets are also constrained by another expectation: the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening in the foreign exchange market near the 160 level to support the yen . This potential intervention risk made the USD/JPY pair hesitant near 160, with some short covering causing the exchange rate to fall from its highs. For USD/JPY, the 159.50-160.00 area constitutes a strong psychological and policy resistance zone, and any test of this area could trigger significant volatility. Initial support is around 157.00, followed by the area around yesterday's low of 156.20. Intraday traders must remain highly vigilant for any verbal warnings or actual intervention from Japanese Ministry of Finance officials.
The US dollar index itself is consolidating at high levels, currently trading at 99.0790, down slightly by 0.1% on the day. The dollar's movement is influenced by two opposing forces: on one hand, safe-haven inflows driven by geopolitical risks, and on the other hand, cautious market sentiment ahead of key data releases. Other major currencies, such as the euro, have seen relatively limited volatility as the market awaits direction from US data.
Bond Market: Yields retreat slightly from their highs, awaiting data release.
The U.S. Treasury market saw a slight pullback today after a significant rise in yields recently, as the market adjusted positions ahead of key economic data releases. According to the latest quotes, the 2-year Treasury yield was 3.516%, and the 10-year yield was 4.156%. The yield curve (2s/10s) has steepened slightly to approximately 64 basis points.
From a fundamental perspective, the market is attempting to balance multiple factors: continued economic resilience, persistent inflationary pressures, a complex geopolitical situation, and political noise surrounding the Federal Reserve. One analyst points out that tonight's producer price index data will help form a more complete picture of inflation, and any major surprises could trigger volatility across asset classes. Furthermore, five senior Federal Reserve officials will speak today in various settings, including those with hawkish and dovish stances; their remarks will be carefully analyzed to capture any subtle signals regarding the path of interest rates.
From a technical perspective, the 10-year Treasury yield has temporarily stalled after hitting recent highs, with the 4.18%-4.20% area forming strong short-term resistance. A successful breakout could open up room for further gains. Support levels to watch are first at 4.14%-4.15%, then at the 4.10% level. Intraday focus should be on PPI data, particularly the core PPI excluding food and energy, and the strength of consumer demand reflected in retail sales data. Furthermore, a large volume of Treasury bond auctions and repurchase operations may also impact market liquidity and short-term prices.
Key market focus in the evening
Tonight, market attention will be focused on a series of US economic data and events:
1. Economic Data: The US November PPI and retail sales data, released at 21:30 Beijing time, are of paramount importance. The market expects PPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month and retail sales to rise 0.4% month-on-month. Any data exceeding expectations, especially those showing rising inflationary pressures or strong consumer spending, could reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain high for a longer period, boosting the US dollar and US Treasury yields, and potentially putting pressure on risk assets and gold prices. Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, it could trigger the opposite market trend.
2. Speeches by Federal Reserve Officials: Starting at 22:50 Beijing time, several Federal Reserve officials will deliver speeches. The remarks of Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (hawkish), Fed Governor Milan (dovish), and New York Fed President Williams (centrist) are particularly noteworthy . During periods when markets are sensitive to the policy outlook, any statements regarding economic assessments or policy stances can trigger market volatility.
3. Geopolitical developments: Any new developments in the situation in Iran, including responses from the United States and dynamics among regional countries, could impact markets at any time, particularly crude oil and gold.
4. Other events: The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book at 3:00 AM Beijing time the following day, providing a qualitative description of the economic conditions in various regions. Additionally, the U.S. Supreme Court may release its ruling today on the legality of tariffs imposed during former President Trump's administration, the outcome of which could influence future trade policy expectations.
Future Trend Outlook
Looking ahead, the market may enter a phase of two-way volatility driven by both data and events. Crude oil prices are highly dependent on the evolution of the Middle East situation. If tensions persist or even escalate, risk premiums are likely to remain, and oil prices may stay strong; however, if there are signs of easing tensions, oil prices may face a rapid correction. After reaching record highs, precious metals may continue to be supported by technical buying and safe-haven demand, but the risk of a pullback due to a stronger dollar or a significant rise in real interest rates should be noted.
The yen exchange rate is currently caught in a tug-of-war between expectations of domestic easing policies and the threat of official intervention. The struggle around the 160 level for USD/JPY will be exceptionally fierce, and volatility may increase dramatically. The direction of the US dollar index will largely depend on tonight's and subsequent US economic data. If the data remains strong, the dollar may resume its upward trend; conversely, it may face downward pressure. Whether bond yields can continue their upward trend will depend on the performance of inflation data and the interpretation of the latest data by Federal Reserve officials.
Overall, amid a host of uncertainties, market sentiment is likely to remain sensitive, and cross-asset correlations may strengthen under the theme of risk aversion.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
