A historic breakthrough! Gold surpasses $4,700 for the first time; how high can the safe-haven rush go?
2026-01-20 13:43:58
On Tuesday (January 20) during Asian trading hours, spot gold fluctuated upwards, rising approximately 0.6% on the day, and is currently trading around $4,700 per ounce. As of 13:40, spot gold reached a new all-time high of $4,705.36 per ounce. Due to complex fundamental support, safe-haven buying continues to flow into gold.
The protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to generate geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, escalating tensions in Greenland and growing concerns about a potential trade war between the US and Europe continue to dampen investor sentiment and provide support for safe-haven gold.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market has priced in a near 5% chance of a Fed rate cut later this month. As market expectations for a rate cut weaken, the dollar may be supported, thus limiting the upside potential for dollar-denominated gold. Furthermore, the apparent easing of domestic unrest in Iran has reduced the likelihood of US intervention, adding another factor to the pressure on the commodity.
Traders appear to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, opting to await the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Thursday. This crucial data will provide further clues about the Federal Reserve's future policy path, thereby influencing the dollar's trajectory and injecting new momentum into gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
Russia launched a massive drone strike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure Monday night, causing widespread power outages in the country amid severe cold and high demand. Earlier Tuesday, Russian forces also launched a combined drone and missile attack on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
Trump threatened over the weekend to impose an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from eight European countries that are blocking his acquisition of Greenland, effective February 1. France proposed a series of previously untested economic retaliatory measures, raising the risk of a trade war between the US and Europe.
Following a hardline crackdown by Iranian authorities on domestic protests, US President Trump appears to have backed down from his earlier threats of military action against Iran.
Traders reduced their bets on a more aggressive easing policy from the Federal Reserve in 2026 after Trump indicated his preference for retaining Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council. This implies that Jerome Powell will be replaced by someone else, which provided support for the dollar. The dollar index traded in a narrow range around 98.90 during Tuesday's Asian session.
Investors are currently awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Thursday—a preferred inflation gauge by the Federal Reserve. Thursday's release will also include the final reading of U.S. third-quarter GDP, data that will provide further clues about the Fed's interest rate path and thus influence the price movements of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.
The upward channel formed since $3886.51 has dominated this rally. The MACD moving average has extended above the signal line, and both are above the zero line, reinforcing the bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in overbought territory, indicating that current momentum is showing signs of weakening.
The resistance level coincides with the upper channel line (around $4713). Failure to break through this resistance level may trigger consolidation or a pullback within the channel. The channel support level is located around $4400.
If the price can break through the upper channel line, the upward trend is expected to continue; conversely, if the price falls back, it is expected to find support near the lower channel line.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 13:43 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4703.31 per ounce.
The protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to generate geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, escalating tensions in Greenland and growing concerns about a potential trade war between the US and Europe continue to dampen investor sentiment and provide support for safe-haven gold.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market has priced in a near 5% chance of a Fed rate cut later this month. As market expectations for a rate cut weaken, the dollar may be supported, thus limiting the upside potential for dollar-denominated gold. Furthermore, the apparent easing of domestic unrest in Iran has reduced the likelihood of US intervention, adding another factor to the pressure on the commodity.
Traders appear to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, opting to await the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Thursday. This crucial data will provide further clues about the Federal Reserve's future policy path, thereby influencing the dollar's trajectory and injecting new momentum into gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
Gold maintains a bullish tone driven by global risk aversion.
Russia launched a massive drone strike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure Monday night, causing widespread power outages in the country amid severe cold and high demand. Earlier Tuesday, Russian forces also launched a combined drone and missile attack on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
Trump threatened over the weekend to impose an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from eight European countries that are blocking his acquisition of Greenland, effective February 1. France proposed a series of previously untested economic retaliatory measures, raising the risk of a trade war between the US and Europe.
Following a hardline crackdown by Iranian authorities on domestic protests, US President Trump appears to have backed down from his earlier threats of military action against Iran.
Traders reduced their bets on a more aggressive easing policy from the Federal Reserve in 2026 after Trump indicated his preference for retaining Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council. This implies that Jerome Powell will be replaced by someone else, which provided support for the dollar. The dollar index traded in a narrow range around 98.90 during Tuesday's Asian session.
Investors are currently awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Thursday—a preferred inflation gauge by the Federal Reserve. Thursday's release will also include the final reading of U.S. third-quarter GDP, data that will provide further clues about the Fed's interest rate path and thus influence the price movements of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.
If gold breaks through the resistance level of its ascending channel, it could open up room for further gains.
The upward channel formed since $3886.51 has dominated this rally. The MACD moving average has extended above the signal line, and both are above the zero line, reinforcing the bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in overbought territory, indicating that current momentum is showing signs of weakening.
The resistance level coincides with the upper channel line (around $4713). Failure to break through this resistance level may trigger consolidation or a pullback within the channel. The channel support level is located around $4400.
If the price can break through the upper channel line, the upward trend is expected to continue; conversely, if the price falls back, it is expected to find support near the lower channel line.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 13:43 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4703.31 per ounce.
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