Decoding Trump's 2026 Agenda: Global Capital Has Entered a Critical Phase
2026-02-09 21:33:20
In 2026, the Trump administration's series of political actions, international meetings, and election maneuvers will continue to disrupt global financial markets from three dimensions: geopolitical landscape, policy direction, and political landscape. The pricing logic of the US dollar, gold, US stocks, and commodities will also be continuously restructured as key milestones are reached.
The following is a summary of key time points throughout the year and corresponding trading considerations, providing a reference for understanding market rhythm.
On February 24, Trump will deliver his first State of the Union address of his second term. This speech is the core basis for judging his fiscal, trade, and foreign policies for the whole year, and also an important indicator of market trends.
Given the tough stance he took in his 2025 inaugural address, this State of the Union address is likely to send a more radical policy signal.
Meanwhile, the term of Federal Reserve Governor Milan is ending, which may make way for Warsh.
It should be noted that Trump's current low approval ratings may lead to checks and balances on his policy agenda by Congress, and the uncertainty surrounding policy implementation will exacerbate market volatility.
If the speech signals large-scale fiscal stimulus, US cyclical stocks and inflation-related assets are likely to be boosted; if it emphasizes trade protectionism or a hardline geopolitical strategy, it will increase market risk aversion, benefiting safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen.
Trump's visit to China in April is a key milestone in China-US economic and trade relations in 2026. In the previous meeting, China and the US reached a consensus that the US would reduce some tariffs on China and China would postpone rare earth export controls. The outcome of this meeting will directly affect global trade flows, commodity prices, and the exchange rates of the RMB and the US dollar.
On the trading side, key attention should be paid to tariff adjustments, the removal of trade barriers, and cooperation policies for key resources such as rare earths. If Sino-US trade relations ease marginally, US-listed Chinese stocks, export-oriented sectors, and commodities such as copper and crude oil are likely to see a recovery. If the game intensifies, it will suppress the performance of risky assets and boost market demand for safe-haven assets.
If the confirmation process goes smoothly from early May to early July, Warsh will officially take over as Chairman of the Federal Reserve on May 16, 2026 (the day after Powell's term ends).
The U.S. Supreme Court is set to release rulings on several key cases, including those of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. If the outcome favors the Federal Reserve, it could boost the Fed's independence and lead to a rebound in the dollar.
Meanwhile, the rulings on issues such as birthright citizenship, gerrymandering, and National Guard deployment will directly define the boundaries of Trump's governing power and may even affect the distribution of seats in the U.S. Congress.
If the ruling restricts Trump's power, expectations for the implementation of his radical policies will cool, and US stocks and the US dollar index may come under pressure; if the ruling strengthens his governing authority, market concerns about policy uncertainty will intensify, and safe-haven assets will be more likely to be supported.
The World Cup, co-hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico from June 11 to July 19, is not a core political event. However, the new US entry rules requiring international travelers to provide personal information such as social media data will slightly impact US tourism spending and cross-border capital flows, thereby disrupting short-term demand for the US dollar.
July 4th marks the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence in the United States. A series of celebrations across the country may boost domestic consumer sentiment in the short term, and the US consumer and retail sectors are expected to benefit in the short term.
The NATO summit held in Ankara, Turkey on July 7-8 is a critical juncture for geopolitical risks in July and even throughout the year. The Trump administration's threat to annex Greenland, a NATO member state, has become the biggest uncertainty of this summit.
If the US continues its threats, the summit atmosphere will become tense, and market concerns about a breakdown in NATO alliance relations will push up the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold, while suppressing the performance of risk currencies such as the euro and the US dollar. If geopolitical conflicts are expected to ease and risk aversion subsides, funds will return to risk assets, and US stocks and commodities may see a recovery.
Furthermore, the power struggle over resources and shipping lanes in Greenland will also affect long-term pricing expectations for related commodities.
The 2026 midterm elections on November 3 are the most crucial political event of the year, electing all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships. The results will directly determine the scope for the Trump administration's subsequent policies and reshape the American political landscape.
Based on the current election situation and model predictions, Trump's low approval ratings, coupled with the drag from livelihood issues, suggest that the Republican Party is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives, and the Democratic Party is expected to dominate the House.
The election results have a clear impact on the market: if the House of Representatives changes hands, Trump will lose the advantage of having a unified government, and his radical fiscal and foreign policies will face strong resistance.
If the Republicans unexpectedly retain control of the House of Representatives, expectations for the implementation of Trump's policies will strengthen, and inflation-related assets and geopolitically beneficial commodities are likely to receive support.
Meanwhile, the political maneuvering before and after the election will exacerbate market volatility, and traders need to be wary of advance fund positioning and the realization of expectations.
The G20 Leaders' Summit will be held at Trump's resort on December 14-15. The United States, as the rotating chair, has made it clear that it will streamline the meeting agenda. This move may limit global cooperation among the G20 in areas such as climate, development, and income inequality, exacerbate market concerns about the global economic recovery, and suppress the performance of risk assets.
Meanwhile, the US's unilateralist policy tendencies will further intensify geopolitical competition, and safe-haven assets such as gold may receive some support at the end of the year.
From the midterm elections until the new Congress convenes in January 2027, the US political arena will experience a typical "lame duck" effect, with a large number of lawmakers and Trump, who is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives, facing a stagnation in policy implementation.
Uncertainty surrounding fiscal and foreign policies at the end of the year, coupled with seasonal fluctuations in liquidity, will lead to a concentrated release of risks in the US dollar, US stock market, and global commodity markets, potentially resulting in a significant increase in market volatility.
Furthermore, if Trump introduces radical policies at the end of the year to shape his political legacy, it will become an additional disruptive factor for the market.
The series of actions taken by the Trump administration in 2026 will determine that the market throughout the year will revolve around three main themes: geopolitical risks, policy implementation, and the political landscape.
In the short term, it is necessary to closely follow the unfolding events at each key time point and seize opportunities arising from the shift between risk aversion and risk appetite; in the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation effects of Trump's policies and the strength of congressional checks and balances, and to assess the trend direction of the US dollar and US stocks.
In the long term, we need to be wary of policy shifts brought about by the restructuring of the political landscape after the midterm elections, as well as medium- to long-term market risks brought about by fiscal expansion and geopolitical games.
Overall, market volatility is likely to remain high in 2026, and traders need to focus on timing and risk control in event-driven scenarios.
The following is a summary of key time points throughout the year and corresponding trading considerations, providing a reference for understanding market rhythm.
February: The State of the Union address is released, and Trump's policy direction sets the main trend for market trading.
On February 24, Trump will deliver his first State of the Union address of his second term. This speech is the core basis for judging his fiscal, trade, and foreign policies for the whole year, and also an important indicator of market trends.
Given the tough stance he took in his 2025 inaugural address, this State of the Union address is likely to send a more radical policy signal.
Meanwhile, the term of Federal Reserve Governor Milan is ending, which may make way for Warsh.
It should be noted that Trump's current low approval ratings may lead to checks and balances on his policy agenda by Congress, and the uncertainty surrounding policy implementation will exacerbate market volatility.
If the speech signals large-scale fiscal stimulus, US cyclical stocks and inflation-related assets are likely to be boosted; if it emphasizes trade protectionism or a hardline geopolitical strategy, it will increase market risk aversion, benefiting safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen.
April: Trump's visit to China opens a crucial window for trade negotiations between the two countries.
Trump's visit to China in April is a key milestone in China-US economic and trade relations in 2026. In the previous meeting, China and the US reached a consensus that the US would reduce some tariffs on China and China would postpone rare earth export controls. The outcome of this meeting will directly affect global trade flows, commodity prices, and the exchange rates of the RMB and the US dollar.
On the trading side, key attention should be paid to tariff adjustments, the removal of trade barriers, and cooperation policies for key resources such as rare earths. If Sino-US trade relations ease marginally, US-listed Chinese stocks, export-oriented sectors, and commodities such as copper and crude oil are likely to see a recovery. If the game intensifies, it will suppress the performance of risky assets and boost market demand for safe-haven assets.
May-June: Federal Reserve Chairman Huang Shuai, Supreme Court ruling + World Cup – policy and consumption factors both disrupt the market.
If the confirmation process goes smoothly from early May to early July, Warsh will officially take over as Chairman of the Federal Reserve on May 16, 2026 (the day after Powell's term ends).
The U.S. Supreme Court is set to release rulings on several key cases, including those of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. If the outcome favors the Federal Reserve, it could boost the Fed's independence and lead to a rebound in the dollar.
Meanwhile, the rulings on issues such as birthright citizenship, gerrymandering, and National Guard deployment will directly define the boundaries of Trump's governing power and may even affect the distribution of seats in the U.S. Congress.
If the ruling restricts Trump's power, expectations for the implementation of his radical policies will cool, and US stocks and the US dollar index may come under pressure; if the ruling strengthens his governing authority, market concerns about policy uncertainty will intensify, and safe-haven assets will be more likely to be supported.
The World Cup, co-hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico from June 11 to July 19, is not a core political event. However, the new US entry rules requiring international travelers to provide personal information such as social media data will slightly impact US tourism spending and cross-border capital flows, thereby disrupting short-term demand for the US dollar.
July: 250th Anniversary of the Founding of the People's Republic of China + NATO Summit, Geopolitical Risks Become the Core Variable in the Market
July 4th marks the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence in the United States. A series of celebrations across the country may boost domestic consumer sentiment in the short term, and the US consumer and retail sectors are expected to benefit in the short term.
The NATO summit held in Ankara, Turkey on July 7-8 is a critical juncture for geopolitical risks in July and even throughout the year. The Trump administration's threat to annex Greenland, a NATO member state, has become the biggest uncertainty of this summit.
If the US continues its threats, the summit atmosphere will become tense, and market concerns about a breakdown in NATO alliance relations will push up the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold, while suppressing the performance of risk currencies such as the euro and the US dollar. If geopolitical conflicts are expected to ease and risk aversion subsides, funds will return to risk assets, and US stocks and commodities may see a recovery.
Furthermore, the power struggle over resources and shipping lanes in Greenland will also affect long-term pricing expectations for related commodities.
November: The midterm elections conclude, and the reshaping of the US political landscape will dominate long-term market trends.
The 2026 midterm elections on November 3 are the most crucial political event of the year, electing all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships. The results will directly determine the scope for the Trump administration's subsequent policies and reshape the American political landscape.
Based on the current election situation and model predictions, Trump's low approval ratings, coupled with the drag from livelihood issues, suggest that the Republican Party is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives, and the Democratic Party is expected to dominate the House.
The election results have a clear impact on the market: if the House of Representatives changes hands, Trump will lose the advantage of having a unified government, and his radical fiscal and foreign policies will face strong resistance.
If the Republicans unexpectedly retain control of the House of Representatives, expectations for the implementation of Trump's policies will strengthen, and inflation-related assets and geopolitically beneficial commodities are likely to receive support.
Meanwhile, the political maneuvering before and after the election will exacerbate market volatility, and traders need to be wary of advance fund positioning and the realization of expectations.
December: G20 Summit + Lame-duck Effect – Market Faces Dual Tests of Policy and Funding at Year-End
The G20 Leaders' Summit will be held at Trump's resort on December 14-15. The United States, as the rotating chair, has made it clear that it will streamline the meeting agenda. This move may limit global cooperation among the G20 in areas such as climate, development, and income inequality, exacerbate market concerns about the global economic recovery, and suppress the performance of risk assets.
Meanwhile, the US's unilateralist policy tendencies will further intensify geopolitical competition, and safe-haven assets such as gold may receive some support at the end of the year.
From the midterm elections until the new Congress convenes in January 2027, the US political arena will experience a typical "lame duck" effect, with a large number of lawmakers and Trump, who is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives, facing a stagnation in policy implementation.
Uncertainty surrounding fiscal and foreign policies at the end of the year, coupled with seasonal fluctuations in liquidity, will lead to a concentrated release of risks in the US dollar, US stock market, and global commodity markets, potentially resulting in a significant increase in market volatility.
Furthermore, if Trump introduces radical policies at the end of the year to shape his political legacy, it will become an additional disruptive factor for the market.
Summary of the core logic of trading throughout the year
The series of actions taken by the Trump administration in 2026 will determine that the market throughout the year will revolve around three main themes: geopolitical risks, policy implementation, and the political landscape.
In the short term, it is necessary to closely follow the unfolding events at each key time point and seize opportunities arising from the shift between risk aversion and risk appetite; in the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation effects of Trump's policies and the strength of congressional checks and balances, and to assess the trend direction of the US dollar and US stocks.
In the long term, we need to be wary of policy shifts brought about by the restructuring of the political landscape after the midterm elections, as well as medium- to long-term market risks brought about by fiscal expansion and geopolitical games.
Overall, market volatility is likely to remain high in 2026, and traders need to focus on timing and risk control in event-driven scenarios.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
