Gold prices rose above $5,000, with a weakening dollar, safe-haven demand, and US economic data becoming the focus.
2026-02-10 02:22:33
On Monday (February 9), during the US trading session, international gold prices rebounded strongly, regaining and breaking through the key psychological level of $5,000. This round of gains was mainly driven by a weaker dollar, continued safe-haven buying, and market expectations for major US economic data. This is both a continuation of last Friday's gains and highlights the strong resilience of gold in a global environment of uncertainty.
In US trading, spot gold rose 2.1% to $5,055.67 per ounce, a gain of 1.94%, continuing its upward trend after a 4% surge in the previous session. US April gold futures rose 2.01% to $5,079.8 per ounce, briefly approaching $5,100 during the session. Earlier this month, gold prices briefly retreated to around $4,800 but quickly found strong support, aligning with market expectations of buying on dips. Meanwhile, the US dollar index fell 0.8%, hitting a new low in over a week, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to international buyers and further boosting gold prices. Spot silver also surged 6.32% to $82.405 per ounce.
Key driving factors: Multiple positive factors combined to support the rise in gold prices.
Analysts point out that the weakening dollar is closely related to rising market expectations of a slowdown in US economic data (especially the job market), which may further strengthen market bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut. The current rise in gold prices is supported by multiple fundamental factors. Although there are currently no "super hotspots" in geopolitics, potential global tensions, including ongoing regional conflicts and unresolved trade uncertainties, could escalate at any time, keeping safe-haven demand high. This, coupled with the recent rise in oil prices and the weakening dollar, has significantly boosted the precious metals sector as a whole. Continued gold purchases by central banks have also provided important support for gold prices. The People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings for the 15th consecutive month in January, signaling that institutional demand for gold remains strong despite concerns about currency devaluation. Analysts generally believe that the global massive debt problem and the loose monetary policies implemented by major central banks are the core long-term factors supporting the long-term strength of gold prices.
Market Focus: US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Policy Moves
The market's focus has now shifted entirely to the US economic data to be released this week. Due to the partial government shutdown, these data releases are slightly delayed. Wednesday's January non-farm payrolls data is expected to show an increase of only 70,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%. Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) may show continued cooling inflation, with core inflation potentially reaching its slowest year-on-year growth rate since early 2021. In addition, several other important economic indicators, including initial jobless claims and retail sales, will also be released in quick succession. The market has already priced in at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. This rising expectation of rate cuts undoubtedly reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, further benefiting gold prices.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter attributed the recent gold price volatility to speculative activity in the Chinese market, stating that Chinese regulators are tightening margin requirements to regulate market order in response to "irrational trading." Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also shows...
As of the week ending February 3, hedge funds reduced their net long positions in gold by 23% to 93,438 contracts, the lowest level in 15 weeks. This change suggests that some funds chose to take profits and lock in gains after gold prices broke through the historical high of $5,600 in January. Meanwhile, Chinese regulators also advised domestic financial institutions to reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds to mitigate the concentration risk in asset allocation. This measure indirectly benefits gold, further enhancing its attractiveness as a diversified asset allocation.
Institutional Views and Technical Outlook
Bart Melek of TD Securities emphasized that the dollar's performance is the main driver of this round of gold price increases, while geopolitical risks and China's continued gold purchases provide sustained bullish support for gold prices. Kim Soo-jin of MUFG pointed out that the market's focus has gradually shifted to US employment data, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, which will directly affect market sentiment in the precious metals market.
From a technical perspective, gold prices have now firmly established themselves above the key level of $5,000. Short-term pullbacks to around $4,800 are still seen as rare buying opportunities. If gold can successfully break through the resistance level of $5,100, the next target will be $5,400. In the medium to long term, gold prices may even challenge the historical high of around $5,600 again.
However, analysts also cautioned that gold prices could still experience a sharp pullback of around $300. While this pullback wouldn't change the overall upward trend, investors should remain cautious and avoid chasing the price higher. From a short-term trading perspective, the 5-minute gold futures chart shows that current support levels are in the $4,950-$5,000 range, while resistance levels are in the $5,050-$5,100 range.
(Spot gold daily chart source: FX678)
Major institutions are generally optimistic about the future of gold prices. Wells Fargo predicts that gold prices could reach $6,100 to $6,300 by the end of the year, driven by institutional gold purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts. RoboForex believes that gold prices may enter a consolidation phase around $5,050 in the short term. InstaForex has given specific trading advice, suggesting that investors place long orders above $4,928, with a target of $5,351.
Performance and Outlook of Related Precious Metals
Besides gold, other related precious metals also performed well, with spot silver showing particularly strong gains. After surging nearly 10% last Friday, it rose another 5.8% on Monday to $82.49 per ounce, having previously hit a record high of $121.64 on January 29. Platinum and palladium also rose in tandem, with platinum increasing by 1.2% to $2,120.62 per ounce and palladium by 1.7% to $1,734.72 per ounce.
While the widespread adoption of electric vehicles may suppress demand for automotive catalytic metals such as platinum and palladium in the long term, analysts at WisdomTree point out that the anticipated slowdown in electric vehicle sales has not yet materialized, which could limit the price increases of these metals in the short term. Analysts at Heraeus observe that gold and silver are currently in a high-volatility range, behaving more like speculative assets than purely safe-haven assets, meaning investors need to pay closer attention to market volatility risks during trading.
Overall, the upward trend in gold prices remains intact, supported by continued central bank gold purchases, geopolitical hedging demand, and expectations of further easing policies. There is still room for further gains. However, it's important to note that this week's US economic data may trigger short-term fluctuations in gold prices. Weaker employment and inflation data could accelerate the price increase, while stronger-than-expected data could lead to a short-term pullback. In the long term, a break above $6,000 reflects a structurally bullish market sentiment, while $5,000 will be a key support level for future price movements. For investors looking to establish positions, pullbacks in gold prices still present good buying opportunities.
In US trading, spot gold rose 2.1% to $5,055.67 per ounce, a gain of 1.94%, continuing its upward trend after a 4% surge in the previous session. US April gold futures rose 2.01% to $5,079.8 per ounce, briefly approaching $5,100 during the session. Earlier this month, gold prices briefly retreated to around $4,800 but quickly found strong support, aligning with market expectations of buying on dips. Meanwhile, the US dollar index fell 0.8%, hitting a new low in over a week, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to international buyers and further boosting gold prices. Spot silver also surged 6.32% to $82.405 per ounce.
Key driving factors: Multiple positive factors combined to support the rise in gold prices.
Analysts point out that the weakening dollar is closely related to rising market expectations of a slowdown in US economic data (especially the job market), which may further strengthen market bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut. The current rise in gold prices is supported by multiple fundamental factors. Although there are currently no "super hotspots" in geopolitics, potential global tensions, including ongoing regional conflicts and unresolved trade uncertainties, could escalate at any time, keeping safe-haven demand high. This, coupled with the recent rise in oil prices and the weakening dollar, has significantly boosted the precious metals sector as a whole. Continued gold purchases by central banks have also provided important support for gold prices. The People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings for the 15th consecutive month in January, signaling that institutional demand for gold remains strong despite concerns about currency devaluation. Analysts generally believe that the global massive debt problem and the loose monetary policies implemented by major central banks are the core long-term factors supporting the long-term strength of gold prices.
Market Focus: US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Policy Moves
The market's focus has now shifted entirely to the US economic data to be released this week. Due to the partial government shutdown, these data releases are slightly delayed. Wednesday's January non-farm payrolls data is expected to show an increase of only 70,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%. Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) may show continued cooling inflation, with core inflation potentially reaching its slowest year-on-year growth rate since early 2021. In addition, several other important economic indicators, including initial jobless claims and retail sales, will also be released in quick succession. The market has already priced in at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. This rising expectation of rate cuts undoubtedly reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, further benefiting gold prices.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter attributed the recent gold price volatility to speculative activity in the Chinese market, stating that Chinese regulators are tightening margin requirements to regulate market order in response to "irrational trading." Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also shows...
As of the week ending February 3, hedge funds reduced their net long positions in gold by 23% to 93,438 contracts, the lowest level in 15 weeks. This change suggests that some funds chose to take profits and lock in gains after gold prices broke through the historical high of $5,600 in January. Meanwhile, Chinese regulators also advised domestic financial institutions to reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds to mitigate the concentration risk in asset allocation. This measure indirectly benefits gold, further enhancing its attractiveness as a diversified asset allocation.
Institutional Views and Technical Outlook
Bart Melek of TD Securities emphasized that the dollar's performance is the main driver of this round of gold price increases, while geopolitical risks and China's continued gold purchases provide sustained bullish support for gold prices. Kim Soo-jin of MUFG pointed out that the market's focus has gradually shifted to US employment data, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, which will directly affect market sentiment in the precious metals market.
From a technical perspective, gold prices have now firmly established themselves above the key level of $5,000. Short-term pullbacks to around $4,800 are still seen as rare buying opportunities. If gold can successfully break through the resistance level of $5,100, the next target will be $5,400. In the medium to long term, gold prices may even challenge the historical high of around $5,600 again.
However, analysts also cautioned that gold prices could still experience a sharp pullback of around $300. While this pullback wouldn't change the overall upward trend, investors should remain cautious and avoid chasing the price higher. From a short-term trading perspective, the 5-minute gold futures chart shows that current support levels are in the $4,950-$5,000 range, while resistance levels are in the $5,050-$5,100 range.
(Spot gold daily chart source: FX678)
Major institutions are generally optimistic about the future of gold prices. Wells Fargo predicts that gold prices could reach $6,100 to $6,300 by the end of the year, driven by institutional gold purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts. RoboForex believes that gold prices may enter a consolidation phase around $5,050 in the short term. InstaForex has given specific trading advice, suggesting that investors place long orders above $4,928, with a target of $5,351.
Performance and Outlook of Related Precious Metals
Besides gold, other related precious metals also performed well, with spot silver showing particularly strong gains. After surging nearly 10% last Friday, it rose another 5.8% on Monday to $82.49 per ounce, having previously hit a record high of $121.64 on January 29. Platinum and palladium also rose in tandem, with platinum increasing by 1.2% to $2,120.62 per ounce and palladium by 1.7% to $1,734.72 per ounce.
While the widespread adoption of electric vehicles may suppress demand for automotive catalytic metals such as platinum and palladium in the long term, analysts at WisdomTree point out that the anticipated slowdown in electric vehicle sales has not yet materialized, which could limit the price increases of these metals in the short term. Analysts at Heraeus observe that gold and silver are currently in a high-volatility range, behaving more like speculative assets than purely safe-haven assets, meaning investors need to pay closer attention to market volatility risks during trading.
Overall, the upward trend in gold prices remains intact, supported by continued central bank gold purchases, geopolitical hedging demand, and expectations of further easing policies. There is still room for further gains. However, it's important to note that this week's US economic data may trigger short-term fluctuations in gold prices. Weaker employment and inflation data could accelerate the price increase, while stronger-than-expected data could lead to a short-term pullback. In the long term, a break above $6,000 reflects a structurally bullish market sentiment, while $5,000 will be a key support level for future price movements. For investors looking to establish positions, pullbacks in gold prices still present good buying opportunities.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
