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2026-02-17 14:19:50
[German Bond Yields at the Bottom, Is a Global Flow of Funds Seeking Safe Haven?] ⑴ Data released on Tuesday showed a significant divergence in yields on major global government bonds. For example, the 10-year yield on German government bonds was 2.758%, relatively low among major economies, only higher than Denmark (2.606%), Sweden (2.659%), and Japan (2.131%). ⑵ In contrast, yields on Australian, British, and US government bonds were high. The 10-year Australian government bond yield reached 4.698%, 194 basis points higher than Germany's; the 10-year UK yield was 4.402%, a spread of 164.5 basis points; and the 10-year US yield was 4.027%, 126.9 basis points lower than Germany's. ⑶ The divergence was equally evident in short-term bonds. The 2-year German government bond yield was 2.048%, while the 2-year Australian yield was as high as 4.173%, a spread of 212.5 basis points. The UK 2-year yield was 3.578%, 152.9 basis points higher than Germany's; the US 2-year yield was 3.395%, with a spread of 134.7 basis points. (4) Taking the US as a benchmark, its 2-year yield of 3.395% was lower than Australia's 4.173%, but significantly higher than economies such as Japan (1.233%) and Germany (2.048%). For 10-year bonds, the US yield of 4.027% was also lower than Australia and the UK, but still maintained a significant spread advantage relative to Germany, France, and Japan. (5) The current yield structure of the global government bond market reflects the differences in monetary policy expectations among different economies. The high yields in countries like Australia and the UK may attract inflows of funds chasing coupon payments; while the low-yield environment in countries like Germany and Japan indicates that their bonds still possess strong safe-haven characteristics, making them attractive to funds during periods of uncertainty.
