Escalating geopolitical tensions fueled risk aversion, supporting gold prices as they returned to the $5,000 mark.
2026-02-20 09:09:34
Gold prices extended their gains in early trading on Friday, trading near the $5,000 mark. Recent tensions between the US and Iran have escalated significantly, with Trump stating that "very bad things" will happen if Iran fails to reach a nuclear agreement within 10-15 days.
Meanwhile, data shows that frequent flights of US military transport planes and aerial refueling tankers to Middle Eastern bases have further exacerbated market concerns about potential military conflicts.
Amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is attracting capital inflows. If conflict risks continue to escalate, gold prices may maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term.
However, macroeconomic constraints remain. Recent robust US economic data provides the Federal Reserve with room to maintain interest rates.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and San Francisco Fed President Tom Daly both stated that policy is in the right place and the labor market remains resilient. High interest rate environments typically put pressure on gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
Today's market focus will shift to the preliminary US Q4 GDP figures, the PCE price index, and the S&P Global PMI data. Stronger-than-expected inflation data could reinforce expectations of prolonged high interest rates, limiting gold's gains.
Conversely, if the data weakens, it could further push up gold prices. Looking at the daily chart, gold continues its upward trend, with prices remaining firmly above major moving averages, and the overall bullish structure remains unchanged.
Short-term moving averages are in a bullish alignment, indicating strong trend momentum. The MACD is above the zero line, and the momentum bars continue to expand; the RSI is in the 60-70 range, approaching but not yet entering severely overbought territory, suggesting that there is still some upside potential.
Key resistance levels to watch are the $5025 and $5050 areas; a break above these levels could open up further upside potential. Support levels to watch are $4970 and $4920.
The overall structure remains bullish, but prices may fluctuate at high levels before major data releases.
Editor's Note:
The core logic behind the current rise in gold prices lies in the increased geopolitical risk premium. As long as tensions between the US and Iran remain high, safe-haven demand will provide support for gold prices.
However, the Federal Reserve's continued high interest rate stance poses a potential downward pressure. If US PCE data strengthens, gold may experience a technical pullback; if inflation falls, bulls may use this opportunity to break through the psychological barrier of $5,000. Pay attention to the direction of the breakout after the data release.
Meanwhile, data shows that frequent flights of US military transport planes and aerial refueling tankers to Middle Eastern bases have further exacerbated market concerns about potential military conflicts.
Amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is attracting capital inflows. If conflict risks continue to escalate, gold prices may maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term.
However, macroeconomic constraints remain. Recent robust US economic data provides the Federal Reserve with room to maintain interest rates.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and San Francisco Fed President Tom Daly both stated that policy is in the right place and the labor market remains resilient. High interest rate environments typically put pressure on gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
Today's market focus will shift to the preliminary US Q4 GDP figures, the PCE price index, and the S&P Global PMI data. Stronger-than-expected inflation data could reinforce expectations of prolonged high interest rates, limiting gold's gains.
Conversely, if the data weakens, it could further push up gold prices. Looking at the daily chart, gold continues its upward trend, with prices remaining firmly above major moving averages, and the overall bullish structure remains unchanged.
Short-term moving averages are in a bullish alignment, indicating strong trend momentum. The MACD is above the zero line, and the momentum bars continue to expand; the RSI is in the 60-70 range, approaching but not yet entering severely overbought territory, suggesting that there is still some upside potential.
Key resistance levels to watch are the $5025 and $5050 areas; a break above these levels could open up further upside potential. Support levels to watch are $4970 and $4920.
The overall structure remains bullish, but prices may fluctuate at high levels before major data releases.
Editor's Note:
The core logic behind the current rise in gold prices lies in the increased geopolitical risk premium. As long as tensions between the US and Iran remain high, safe-haven demand will provide support for gold prices.
However, the Federal Reserve's continued high interest rate stance poses a potential downward pressure. If US PCE data strengthens, gold may experience a technical pullback; if inflation falls, bulls may use this opportunity to break through the psychological barrier of $5,000. Pay attention to the direction of the breakout after the data release.
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