Gold prices are hovering around the $5,000 mark, awaiting a directional move.
2026-02-20 14:42:43
Gold prices encountered resistance after rising slightly over the past two days, with XAU/USD consolidating in a narrow range around the psychological level of $5,000 during the Asian trading session.
Investors are cautiously watching the preliminary US fourth-quarter GDP and PCE data, as these two figures will directly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike or cut path, thereby driving demand for the US dollar and having a key impact on gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
The January FOMC minutes showed that the Federal Reserve was in no hurry to cut interest rates in the short term, while also discussing the possibility of raising rates if inflation remained high.
U.S. initial jobless claims were lower than expected, reflecting a robust labor market. Coupled with hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, the market has reduced its expectations for aggressive policy easing, and the dollar has risen since January 23, putting significant pressure on gold.
Regarding geopolitical risks, US President Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, demanding that it reach an agreement on its nuclear program within 10 to 15 days or face a "bad event."
Iran responded that it does not seek war, but would consider enemy bases and assets as legitimate targets should it be attacked. Tensions in the Middle East are likely to continue supporting safe-haven demand for gold.
Overall, the fundamentals are mixed, with both bullish and bearish factors presenting an opportunity for caution in the short term. XAU/USD found support at the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA, currently around $4,965.41) on Thursday and rebounded, but lacked follow-through buying, and the price remained range-bound.
The MACD line is below the signal line and below the zero axis, and the negative momentum bars are contracting, indicating that the bearish pressure is weakening; the RSI is 53, which is neutral, indicating that the short-term recovery trend is still mild.
If the price remains above the 100-hour SMA, the short-term bias remains upward. A golden cross on the MACD and a move above the zero line would strengthen the expectation of further gains.
If the MACD momentum declines and the RSI falls from the midpoint of 50, the short-term rebound may be hindered, and the price may retest the moving average support.
Editor's Note:
The XAU/USD pair is currently trading in a range, influenced by a combination of factors: strong US dollar pressure and support from Middle East geopolitical risks. Pay attention to the impact of US GDP and PCE data on the dollar; if the dollar rebounds more than expected, the possibility of gold prices falling below $5,000 again cannot be ruled out.
A break above the $5,060 resistance level could trigger further gains, but a drop below the 100-hour SMA could lead to a retest of the $4,950 support level.
Investors are cautiously watching the preliminary US fourth-quarter GDP and PCE data, as these two figures will directly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike or cut path, thereby driving demand for the US dollar and having a key impact on gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
The January FOMC minutes showed that the Federal Reserve was in no hurry to cut interest rates in the short term, while also discussing the possibility of raising rates if inflation remained high.
U.S. initial jobless claims were lower than expected, reflecting a robust labor market. Coupled with hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, the market has reduced its expectations for aggressive policy easing, and the dollar has risen since January 23, putting significant pressure on gold.
Regarding geopolitical risks, US President Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, demanding that it reach an agreement on its nuclear program within 10 to 15 days or face a "bad event."
Iran responded that it does not seek war, but would consider enemy bases and assets as legitimate targets should it be attacked. Tensions in the Middle East are likely to continue supporting safe-haven demand for gold.
Overall, the fundamentals are mixed, with both bullish and bearish factors presenting an opportunity for caution in the short term. XAU/USD found support at the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA, currently around $4,965.41) on Thursday and rebounded, but lacked follow-through buying, and the price remained range-bound.
The MACD line is below the signal line and below the zero axis, and the negative momentum bars are contracting, indicating that the bearish pressure is weakening; the RSI is 53, which is neutral, indicating that the short-term recovery trend is still mild.
If the price remains above the 100-hour SMA, the short-term bias remains upward. A golden cross on the MACD and a move above the zero line would strengthen the expectation of further gains.
If the MACD momentum declines and the RSI falls from the midpoint of 50, the short-term rebound may be hindered, and the price may retest the moving average support.
Editor's Note:
The XAU/USD pair is currently trading in a range, influenced by a combination of factors: strong US dollar pressure and support from Middle East geopolitical risks. Pay attention to the impact of US GDP and PCE data on the dollar; if the dollar rebounds more than expected, the possibility of gold prices falling below $5,000 again cannot be ruled out.
A break above the $5,060 resistance level could trigger further gains, but a drop below the 100-hour SMA could lead to a retest of the $4,950 support level.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
